Storied College Football Programs That Will Struggle in 2022
College football has several storied programs. The ones like Alabama, USC, Notre Dame and Ohio State are among the all-time leaders in wins and championships as part of their rich history.
Most storied programs have bright futures in front of them heading into 2022, but some will struggle next season. First, let's dive into the criteria to determine which programs are considered storied in the first place. (For the sake of consistency, I stuck with the criteria my colleague, Kerry Miller, used when writing this story last year.)
First, there are 22 FBS programs that have at least 700 all-time wins, per Sports Reference. We'll include all of them for starters. But doing just this leaves out Florida State and Miami, who joined the FBS in 1954 and 1936, respectively. We can't leave them out, so that brings us to 24 teams.
Next, we'll include teams in 247Sports' top 25 programs of all time that was released last summer as well as ESPN's 50 best college football programs list released in 2019. Both ESPN and 247Sports included Washington and Michigan State, so we have 26 teams now to look at.
Lastly, we'll eliminate the storied programs from the current list that are included in USA Today's way-too-early Top 25 for the 2022 season. That leaves us with seven storied programs that will struggle next season. Let's see who we have on the list.
Florida Gators
1 of 7
Why it might not be a successful season: The Gators once again have a new head coach, as Billy Napier will mark the fourth new hire Florida has made since Urban Meyer left in 2010. While the expectations surrounding a new head coach in their first season are typically pretty low, Florida fans may want to lower them even further for a number of reasons.
For starters, Florida saw a mass exodus of players transfer from the program with the head coaching change. Other star players, like cornerback Kaiir Elam, running backs Dameon Pierce and Malik Davis and defensive end Zachary Carter declared for the NFL draft.
While players leaving when a new head coach takes over happens frequently, especially now that they don't have to sit out a year before playing for their new schools, take a look who transferred out:
Leading receiver Jacob Copeland
TE Kemore Gamble
Leading tackler, LB Mohamoud Diabate
DE Khris Bogle
OT Gerald Mincey
Florida QB Emory Jones, who started in 11 games for the Gators last season, was reportedly expected to enter the transfer portal but appears to still be with the team.
Not only will Napier have to deal with replacing some serious talent, but Florida's schedule for 2022 looks pretty daunting. For starters, the Gators open the season by playing Utah at home—the Utes went 10-4, won the Pac-12 championship and played in the Rose Bowl.
The following week, Florida plays Kentucky, who has beaten Florida twice in the last four years. Per usual, the Gators will face Tennessee, Missouri, LSU and Georgia in the SEC—Florida beat just one of those teams a year ago in the Vols. Florida then goes on the road to play Texas A&M on Nov. 5—Jimbo Fisher is 21-4 at home with the Aggies. The season is finished out with games against South Carolina, Vanderbilt and Florida State. Florida could be looking at another six-win season in 2022, and that might be a bit generous given this schedule.
Why it could be a successful season: The biggest problem Florida had last season (and virtually each year since Tim Tebow left Gainesville, to be honest) was consistency at the quarterback position. Both Jones and Anthony Richardson played last season, although Jones was the clear starter. Jones struggled to find consistent success throughout the season, and Richardson showed his youth at times when he played. Some fresh eyes on the QB competition might be just what Florida's offense needs. If Napier can figure out how to utilize both QBs, or get one of them to thrive, that could turn things around for the Gators.
Although Florida has lost a lot, the Gators have added players from the transfer portal. Along the offensive line, the Gators have landed Louisiana transfers O'Cyrus Torrence and Kamryn Waites, both of whom are former 4-stars, per 247Sports. Florida also landed Ohio State QB transfer Jack Miller, as well as former Ragin' Cajuns running back Montrell Johnson, who had 838 yards and 12 touchdowns, the third-most in the Sun Belt for running backs, in 2021.
In conclusion: First-year head coaches typically have mulligan seasons in year one. Even if the Gators show a slight improvement from the 6-7 season they had a year ago, Florida fans will likely be happy.
Auburn Tigers
2 of 7
Why it might not be a successful season: One of the bigger surprises at the end of the 2021 season was Auburn quarterback Bo Nix announcing he would be transferring from the Tigers. Nix, who won the SEC Freshman of the Year Award in 2019, is heading to Oregon to reunite with former Auburn offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham. In 2019, Auburn finished 9-4, and Nix helped the Tigers upset then-No. 5 Alabama in the Iron Bowl. The QB started for the Tigers the following two seasons, and his 2021 season looked like it would be his best one yet.
Despite getting benched during a close game against Georgia State at home early in the season, Nix threw for 2,294 yards, 11 touchdowns and three interceptions on the year. He also helped Auburn win against LSU in Death Valley for the first time since 1999. Unfortunately for Nix, he missed the Tigers' last two games of the regular season with an ankle injury that caused him to need surgery.
Losing Nix to Oregon certainly changes Auburn's outlook heading into 2022.
Why it could be a successful season: The good news for Auburn's offense is that running back Tank Bigsby will return to the Tigers in 2022. Although Bigsby considered transferring at the end of the 2021 season, the running back has decided to stay put at Auburn. Bigsby had the best season of his Auburn career in 2021, rushing for 1,099 yards and 10 touchdowns.
The Tigers also get quarterback T.J. Finley back in 2022, who threw for 827 yards, six touchdowns and just one interception while filling in for Nix. Auburn also landed QB transfer Zach Calzada from Texas A&M in the offseason. Calzada, who played in 12 games for the Aggies last season, threw for 2,185 yards and 17 touchdowns with nine interceptions. Calzada was also integral in Texas A&M's upset of then-No. 1 Alabama, too.
In conclusion: If head coach Bryan Harsin can successfully replace Nix, the Tigers could have a big year. A lot of whether or not that can happen will depend on the quarterback battle between Finley and Calzada.
Miami Hurricanes
3 of 7
Why it might not be a successful year: Similar to the situation at Florida, Miami will be rebuilding in 2022 under a new head coach. The Canes will be led by former Oregon head coach Mario Cristobal, who played at Miami from 1989 to 1992, was a graduate assistant there from 1998 to 2000 and a position coach there from 2004 to 2006.
If there's one problem area that Cristobal will have to improve upon in 2022, it's Miami's defense. The Canes finished the 2021 season 75th in total defense, giving up 389.6 yards per game. Miami was also 84th in scoring defense, 44th in rush defense and 102nd in pass defense.
Per 247Sports, Miami was the worst Power Five tackling team in the nation. Unfortunately for the Canes, they will lose two bright spots of the unit that had a down year in 2021. Edge-rushers Zach McCloud and Deandre Johnson, who combined for 10 sacks last season, have no eligibility left.
Why it could be a successful season: The good news for Miami is that rising sophomore quarterback Tyler Van Dyke is returning in 2022. Van Dyke helped lead Miami to a 7-5 mark last season. Despite starting the season behind redshirt senior D'Eriq King, Van Dyke stepped up big after King had season-ending shoulder surgery in early October.
Van Dyke threw for 2,931 yards, 25 touchdowns and just six interceptions in 10 games last season. He was named the ACC's rookie of the year for his efforts. Now that Van Dyke is Miami's clear starter, that should give him plenty of confidence heading into the season.
“With D'Eriq there, I was kind of that second guy," Van Dyke told The Athletic in a recent interview. "I had a voice, but not like that type of voice. I think I have that now and definitely have to grow upon that role a little more than I did last spring and last offseason.
“Other than that, my mindset is not going to change, nor how I work. Just because I'm at the top now doesn't mean I'm the guy and I don't have to work."
Van Dyke will also get leading running back Jaylan Knighton back, as well as Ole Miss transfer running back Henry Parrish.
In conclusion: Miami's defense likely won't get better overnight, but the Canes are in a good spot with Van Dyke returning at QB. Cristobal went 9-4 in his first season with Oregon in 2018. Anything remotely close to that would be a success for Miami.
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Nebraska Cornhuskers
4 of 7
Why it might not be a successful year: It may sound harsh to pin Nebraska's problems on just head coach Scott Frost. But if we're being honest, the Huskers have been completely underwhelming under Frost. In four years in Lincoln, Frost has gone 15-29, and Nebraska has yet to have a season .500 or better since he arrived.
While this track record would be enough to fire most head coaches nowadays, if Nebraska were to have fired Frost at the end of 2021, the school would've owed him a $20 million buyout. That's likely a big reason the school announced a restructuring of Frost's contract starting in 2022 that lowers his salary from $5 million to $4 million, and his buyout drops to $7.5 million on Oct. 1.
Frost aside, Nebraska also lost longtime starting QB Adrian Martinez, who has transferred to Kansas State. Martinez finished his Nebraska career with 16 school records, including his 10,792 yards of total offense, per ESPN.com's Dave Wilson. Martinez was also the first three-time team captain in Nebraska history and was the first Huskers QB to start a season opener as a true freshman.
He threw for 8,491 yards and rushed for 2,301 in his 39 games at Nebraska.
Why it could be a successful year: Frost completely overhauled his staff toward the end of the 2021 season, firing four assistants, including offensive coordinator Matt Lubick.
The good news for Nebraska is that it appears as though Frost has made a good hire at OC. Frost landed former Pitt OC Mark Whipple, who helped lead the Panthers to an ACC championship and quarterback Kenny Pickett to be a Heisman finalist. Pitt's offense finished the 2021 season ranked third nationally in scoring, averaging 41.4 yards per game.
"Frankly, I've been wearing myself a little thin having to run the offense and call the offense," Frost told reporters in November of what he was looking for in a coordinator. "If I'm going to turn it over to somebody, I just need somebody that has done it and who I can trust to put our heads together and put the best at what they do with the best of what we do — and then let him run with it."
Whipple will come into a quarterback room that includes quarterbacks Logan Smothers, who played in six games in 2021, and Heinrich Haarberg. Former Texas quarterback and 4-star QB prospect Casey Thompson will also be a nice addition to the group.
In conclusion: 2022 appears to be do-or-die for Frost. If the changes he made on his staff work out and Nebraska has an eight- or nine-win season, that could be enough for Frost to stick around one more year.
Florida State Seminoles
5 of 7
Why it might not be a successful year: Florida State head coach Mike Norvell is entering his third season in Tallahassee with an 8-13 overall record. After starting this season 0-4 including a home loss to Jacksonville State, marking the first loss to an FCS program in school history, Florida State finished 5-7.
Florida State's board of trustees apparently was impressed with what Norvell did last season, despite the Noles missing out on a bowl game. FSU awarded Norvell with a one-year contract extension for his efforts. Still, fan support surrounding Norvell has plummeted thanks to the nation's No. 1 overall recruit, Travis Hunter, flipping from FSU to HBCU Jackson State. A Twitter Spaces subtly named "Fire Mike Norvell" went viral and was live for hours after the flip.
But one of the biggest reasons to doubt FSU having a dramatic turnaround in 2022 is how much of a rebuild Norvell still has to do. The six-year decline under both Jimbo Fisher and Willie Taggart has been heavily reported, and it would be hard for any coach to succeed under the circumstances.
Why it could be a successful year: Florida State returns a ton of talent on offense in 2022, including starting QB Jordan Travis. Travis had the best season of his FSU career last year, throwing for 1,539 yards and 15 touchdowns with six interceptions. The Noles will also get back running back Treshaun Ward and receivers Ontaria Wilson, Keyshawn Helton and Malik McClain.
In conclusion: Florida State gave Norvell a one-year contract extension through the 2026 season in December. But if the Seminoles fail to have a winning season again in 2022, that might be enough for them to move on from him. Six regular-season wins with a bowl victory just might be enough for Norvell to return in 2023.
Washington Huskies
6 of 7
Why it might not be a successful season: Like Florida and Miami, Washington will also have a brand-new head coach in 2022. After UW fired head coach Jimmy Lake in November, it named former Fresno State head coach Kalen DeBoer as its head coach a couple of weeks later.
DeBoer comes to Seattle after spending the last two seasons at Fresno State, where he went 12-6 overall. In DeBoer's first season at Washington, the Huskies likely won't be expected to have a big season, but there are plenty of reasons for UW fans to be excited about the DeBoer hire in general. Here's The Athletic's Christian Caple on what DeBoer brings to Seattle:
"The two most appealing factors: He has won games at numerous stops throughout his career, and he has an offensive background with a track record of scoring points and moving the ball. After the offensive disaster that was the 2021 season, UW fans needed to see a coaching hire that provided some promise of a turnaround on offense, and DeBoer seems to check that box."
Why it could be a successful year: Oregon has been the Pac-12 North's best team the last three seasons, but the division looks a bit wide open in 2022. Oregon will have first-year head coach Dan Lanning, Washington State's Jake Dickert will be in his first season as the Cougs' full-time head coach, and Stanford has gone 11-19 over the last three seasons. If DeBoer has a solid season in 2022, it might be just enough to win the division in what looks to be a down year in the Pac-12 North.
In conclusion: DeBoer's Fresno State teams finished second in the Mountain West in both of his seasons with the Bulldogs. A second-place finish in the Pac-12 North would be considered a good start for the new Huskies head coach.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
7 of 7
Why it might not be a successful year: Geoff Collins is entering his fourth season as Georgia Tech's head coach. Unfortunately for Collins, he appears to be squarely on the hot seat in 2022—the Yellow Jackets haven't won more than three games in any season under Collins in Atlanta.
In 2021, Tech struggled to close out games in the fourth quarter. Per the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Tech lost six games when it had an opportunity to either tie or take the lead in the fourth. Tech AD Todd Santsbury addressed this during a local radio appearance in November:
"Between the offense and defense and special teams, we've got to shrink that differential," Stansbury said (via the AJC). "And if we can do that by 10 points, you're looking at a totally different season. Where Coach is dialing in on what do, we need to do to close that differential, and it's my job as the athletic director to give him and our players the resources they need to be successful to do that."
And though the ACC Coastal is not the toughest Power Five division, Georgia Tech will have trouble against Pitt, Miami, Virginia and UNC.
Why it might be a successful year: After finishing the 2021 season 3-9, Collins made significant staff changes. Collins fired offensive coordinator Dave Patenaude, co-defensive coordinator and safeties coach Nathan Burton and cornerbacks coach Jeff Popovich. It sounds like Collins is taking the overhaul pretty seriously, too.
"As I began the deep dive into everything we need to fix to take the next steps to get the product on the field and the results on the field at the highest level possible," Collins said (via the AJC). "The things that I've realized is, less branding, more coaching. Less worrying about culture, more worried about ball."
Collins hired former Memphis and Notre Dame offensive coordinator Chip Long as his new OC in early December.
In conclusion: Collins certainly seems committed to making the necessary changes to get Tech back to its winning ways. Collins replaced longtime head coach Paul Johnson at Tech, so GT may not be in a huge rush to make a change after just four seasons with Collins.
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