College Football Playoff 2022: Potential Disaster Scenarios for Top 4 Teams

The College Football Playoff released its weekly rankings heading into Week 12, and once again we have a clearer picture of who might make it into the final four come December. Here's a look at the Top 4, as of Nov. 16: 

1. Georgia (10-0)
2. Alabama (9-1) 
3. Oregon (9-1) 
4. Ohio State (9-1) 

As we enter Week 12 of the season, there may not be as many games left to be played, but there are plenty of upsets that can still take place. The biggest thing to keep in mind is that no two-loss team has ever made it into the playoff.

We currently have three one-loss teams inside the top four, so there's a good chance that some of these teams may get knocked out if they lose again. Let's run through the potential disaster scenarios for each of the four teams currently in the top four to see what would have to happen for them to miss out on the playoff this season. 

No. 1 Georgia: Lose to Georgia Tech and Lose in the SEC Championship Game

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Let me preface this by saying that this is incredibly unlikely to happen. The Bulldogs, led by the nation's No. 1 scoring defense, have been completely dominant all season. They haven't been close to being upset, and the most points they've given up were in last week's 41-17 win over Tennessee. But since we're looking at the potential disaster scenarios for all the Top Four teams, we have to include No. 1 Georgia here. 

To miss the playoff, Georgia would likely have to lose twice. Georgia plays 4-5 Charleston Southern this week at home, so the Bulldogs won't have any issues there. 

But if disaster were to fall upon the Bulldogs, it would presumably have to come against in-state rival Georgia Tech and the following week in the SEC Championship Game. As I said earlier, this is highly unlikely. Georgia has defeated GT in each of its last three meetings by an average of 33 points, and the Yellow Jackets are 3-7 on the season. If Georgia Tech were to somehow upset the Bulldogs at home, that would surely knock Georgia out of the top spot, but it wouldn't ruin its chances at the playoff entirely. 

That would have to come the following week against the SEC West winner in the SEC Championship Game. It looks like Georgia will face No. 2 Alabama in Atlanta on Dec. 4 (assuming Bama defeats both Arkansas and Auburn to close out the regular season). Georgia hasn't defeated Alabama since 2007 when Nick Saban was in his first season in Tuscaloosa.

If Georgia loses to both GT and Alabama, the Bulldogs would be 11-2 and not a conference champion. That would be enough for the committee to keep Georgia out. But if Georgia is undefeated after the regular season and then loses to Alabama in Atlanta, that likely won't be enough to keep the Dawgs out of the playoff.

No. 2 Alabama: Lose to Arkansas or Auburn, or Lose in the SEC Championship Game

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The good news for the Crimson Tide, despite their loss to No. 16 Texas A&M earlier this season, is that they control their SEC West destiny. Thanks to Texas A&M losing to Ole Miss and Auburn losing to Mississippi State, Alabama can clinch the West with a win over Arkansas at home this Saturday. 

The bad news for the Tide is that since they already have one loss, one more defeat would likely knock them out of the playoff entirely. If Alabama were to lose to either Arkansas or Auburn, the Tide would still go to Atlanta to play for the SEC championship thanks to their win over Ole Miss on Oct. 2.

Even with a victory over Georgia that would give Bama the SEC title, a two-loss conference champion has never made it into the playoff. The committee would most likely still give a one-loss Georgia team a spot, as well as presumably undefeated Cincinnati (or another one-loss conference champion) instead of Bama.  

The same holds true if Alabama finishes 11-2 with a close loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. As a two-loss team without a conference championship, Alabama likely wouldn't get a spot when you will likely have an undefeated Cincinnati, a one-loss Oregon Pac-12 champion and a one-loss Big Ten champion like Ohio State. 

Yes, Alabama's loss to Texas A&M was a close one on the road, and the Tide can still win the conference. But if Bama loses again either in the regular season or to Georgia, the Tide's chances at getting a seventh playoff appearance would be low. 

No. 3 Oregon: Lose to Utah or Oregon State, or in the Pac-12 Championship Game

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Similar to Alabama, Oregon can't afford to lose another game this season. Despite Oregon's loss to an unranked, below .500 Stanford team on Oct. 2, the Ducks are No. 3 in the playoff rankings. A big reason for that is Oregon's Week 2 victory over Ohio State on the road, which gave the Buckeyes their first home loss since 2017. Ohio State being ranked inside the Top 4 means the committee thinks pretty highly of the Buckeyes, too. 

But Oregon can't afford to lose another game this season if it is to make the playoff for the first time since 2014. This week, the Ducks have a big test ahead of them, facing No. 23 Utah on the road on Saturday night. The Utes are 7-3 on the season and are first in the Pac-12 South.

Not to mention Utah defeated the same Stanford team that upset the Ducks 52-7. Utah is also undefeated at home this season, which helps explain why it is a three-point favorite. A loss this week vs. the Utes would certainly knock Oregon out of the Top Four. 

But Utah isn't the only hurdle that might stand in the way of the Ducks' playoff hopes. During Rivalry Week, Oregon will face Oregon State at home. The Beavers have made quite the turnaround this season. Oregon State is bowl-eligible for the first time since 2013, not to mention that Oregon State defeated the Ducks 41-38 last season. 

And even if the Ducks get a win on the road over Utah this week, it might not be the last time Oregon has to play Utah. The Utes can clinch the Pac-12 South with a win over Colorado on Nov. 26. With Oregon first in the Pac-12 North, the Ducks winning the division would mean it would likely face Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game in Las Vegas.

Beating the Utes twice would be a tall task for Oregon. If the Ducks defeat Utah on Saturday but lose to it in the Pac-12 title game, they would be eliminated from the playoff. 

No. 4 Ohio State: Lose to Michigan State or Michigan, or in the B1G Championship

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The Buckeyes have set themselves up nicely for the playoff this season, even with the loss to Oregon. Ohio State is 9-1 on the year and sitting atop the Big Ten East standings. However, the Buckeyes need to defeat both Michigan State and Michigan to win the division title. 

It gets way trickier if OSU drops one of those games. That would give the Bucks two losses and likely would cost them a playoff spot. Let's start with this Saturday's monster matchup between Ohio State and MSU. 

If Ohio State defeats Michigan State, it will move to 8-0 in the East standings, with just Michigan standing in its way on Nov. 27. If Michigan State wins, it would be tied atop the division with Ohio State, but the win over Michigan on Oct. 30, along with a win over Penn State on Nov. 27, would send Sparty to Indianapolis. Ohio State could also actually clinch the division with a win over Michigan State and a Michigan loss at Maryland.

Now, let's say Ohio State is able to beat both Michigan State and Michigan to close out its regular season sitting at 11-1. The Buckeyes still have to face the winner of the Big Ten West in the conference title game.

While Wisconsin has the lead in the division, the Badgers still have divisional games remaining against Nebraska and Minnesota over the next two weeks. Wisconsin also has the tiebreaker head-to-head victory over Iowa, which is second in the West. If Wisconsin wins out over its next two games, the West will go to the Badgers. But if Iowa wins its last two over Illinois and Nebraska and Wisconsin loses a game, the Hawkeyes will go to Indianapolis. 

Regardless of who ends up representing the West, Ohio State will have to beat them to make it into the playoff with one loss. A loss in the conference championship game—which hasn't happened to the Buckeyes since 2013—would knock Ohio State out of the playoff. 

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