Predicting MLB's Biggest Headline-Grabbing Stories of the Offseason
With the 2021 World Series in the rearview, another MLB offseason is underway.
An exciting winter awaits, featuring a loaded shortstop class and a boom-or-bust pitching market that could include both Cy Young winners and several other high-profile starters.
First things first: A new collective bargaining agreement needs to be sorted out. With no shortage of contentiousness between the league and the player's union, agreeing to terms on a new CBA won't be easy.
Let's take a run through the biggest storylines sure to grab headlines in the coming months.
The Next Japanese Superstar Is On Deck
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Learn the name Seiya Suzuki, because you're going to hear a lot of it this offseason.
The 27-year-old outfielder has been one of Japan's most productive players for years while starring for the Hiroshima Carp, and after hitting .319/.436/.640 with a career-high 38 home runs in 2021, he could be posted for MLB teams this offseason.
He has been open about his desire to make the move stateside in the past.
"Of course," Suzuki told Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times when asked if he was interested in playing in the United States. "I think everyone feels they want to play at the highest stage if they can get the chance."
While there is no guarantee his production would translate against top-tier competition, he has the tools to make an impact.
"When thinking about the prototypical right fielder, two attributes come to mind, namely a strong arm and power at the plate," wrote Ted Baarda of Sports Info Solutions. "If you asked an NPB fan who fits this mold, they would likely name Seiya Suzuki's name off the top of their head."
If he is posted, he should have no problem eclipsing the four-year, $28 million deal that KBO star Ha-Seong Kim signed last winter.
A Homegrown Future Hall of Famer Could Be on the Move
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The last time Clayton Kershaw was a free agent, it was more or less a foregone conclusion that he would re-up with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The three-time Cy Young winner opted out of the final two years of his contract when the 2018 season concluded but wasted little time putting pen to paper on a new deal, signing a three-year, $93 million pact on Nov. 2, 2018.
This time around, things are different.
"I can honestly say I have no idea what's going to happen. I really have no idea," Kershaw told Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register in September of his impending free agency.
The No. 7 pick in the 2006 draft, Kershaw has only known one organization during a 14-year career that is destined for Cooperstown.
The 33-year-old showed he still has plenty left in 2021, going 10-8 with a 3.55 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 144 strikeouts in 121.2 innings. However, he missed more than two months with elbow inflammation and then watched from the sidelines during the postseason while nursing forearm discomfort.
He received a PRP injection in his elbow in October and has avoided surgery for now, but a new deal is clearly risky given his age and recent arm issues. It's hard to picture Kershaw in any other uniform, but for the first time in his career, it's a realistic possibility.
Baseball's First $40 Million Man?
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No one in baseball history has ever signed a contract with an average annual value of $40 million.
That could change this offseason when Max Scherzer hits the open market as one of the most compelling free agency cases of all time.
At 37 years old, Scherzer is likely not a candidate for anything beyond a three-year contract, and if he wants to settle for a one- or two-year deal, he could reel in an even larger payday from an annual-value standpoint.
There might be no free agent in history who can be more readily pointed to as the potential missing championship piece, as he can push any rotation over the top.
He will likely add a fourth Cy Young Award this offseason after going 15-4 with a 2.46 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 236 strikeouts in 179.1 innings, and he brings an intensity that can be infectious.
For a team looking to win now and in need of a front-line arm, a two-year, $80 million deal would represent a low-risk investment in the grand scheme of things and could pave the way to a title.
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A High-Risk, High-Reward Pitching Market
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Beyond Kershaw and Scherzer, the starting pitching market is littered with hurlers who have limited track records of success, injury histories or both.
Consider the following group:
- Kevin Gausman: 4.26 ERA in 985.1 career innings prior to 2021
- Robbie Ray: 6.62 ERA and 45 walks in 51.2 innings in 2020
- Marcus Stroman: Torn ACL (2015) and torn calf muscle (2020)
- Noah Syndergaard: Tommy John surgery in 2020, 2.0 IP in 2021
- Justin Verlander: Tommy John surgery in 2020, did not pitch in 2021
- Eduardo Rodriguez: 4.74 ERA in 157.2 IP in 2021
- Corey Kluber: Missed multiple months in 2021 with shoulder strain
- Steven Matz: 4.35 ERA in 579.2 career innings prior to 2021
Is anyone on that list a safe bet for a long-term contract?
Gausman has turned a corner with his stuff, Ray is going to win the AL Cy Young and Stroman returned strong from a lost 2020 season, but all three come with enough risk that a $100 million contract seems like a major gamble.
The uncertainty of the starting pitching market could mean a busy winter on the trade front, or it could simply mean teams throw caution to the wind and hope for the best as they rework their starting staffs for 2022 and beyond.
The Fate of the Former Chicago Cubs Core
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Starting with the decision to non-tender Kyle Schwarber at the beginning of last offseason and culminating in a trade-deadline fire sale that saw Kris Bryant, Javier Baez and Anthony Rizzo all scattered to various contenders, the Chicago Cubs' offensive core from the 2016 World Series-winning team is gone.
Now the question becomes where those four players will call home for the foreseeable future.
"This is definitely a clubhouse that I could see myself wanting to stay in," Schwarber told reporters after the Boston Red Sox's season ended. "These guys are amazing. ... This is a World Series clubhouse, and I would love to hopefully see if that opportunity comes back."
Bryant told reporters the idea of re-signing with the Giants is "definitely enticing," and Rizzo indicated that he is "quite eager" to return to the Yankees next year, per Bob Klapisch.
The most obvious potential re-up of all is Baez, who made it no secret he wanted to play with Francisco Lindor before being traded to the Mets and has given every indication they will be his No. 1 choice this offseason.
Could it be as simple as all four guys returning to where they finished the 2021 season?
The Dominoes of a Stacked Shortstop Market
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This offseason's shortstop market has a chance to change the league's landscape, depending on where each of the key free agents lands and how they are replaced by their former teams.
The following players are all in search of a new contract this winter:
- Carlos Correa, HOU
- Corey Seager, LAD
- Marcus Semien, TOR
- Trevor Story, COL
- Javier Baez, NYM
- Andrelton Simmons, MIN
- Freddy Galvis, PHI
The Dodgers found their replacement for Corey Seager when they acquired Trea Turner at the deadline, and both Marcus Semien and Baez were playing second base in 2021, so they don't necessarily create a hole at shortstop, but that is still a lot of moving parts for a lot of different teams.
The Astros might be the most compelling storyline. Correa said they were "not close at all" in extension talks, per MLB.com's Brian McTaggart, and the two appear headed for a split. Unless Alex Bregman slides to shortstop, there is no in-house replacement, meaning the Astros would have to sign one of the market's other everyday options to plug the hole.
Things could move quickly once the first domino falls.
The New Collective Bargaining Agreement
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It's fun to start speculating about how the MLB offseason might play out and where free agents might sign, but all of that will be thrown off if the new collective bargaining agreement isn't hammered out.
The current CBA expires at 11:59 p.m. on Dec. 1, and there is little optimism that a new deal will be agreed upon by that time. That means some sort of work stoppage is coming this offseason. The question is whether it will last long enough to derail free agency and perhaps even the start of spring training.
Ronald Blum of the Associated Press in wrote in October:
"Baseball's ninth work stoppage and first in 26 years appears almost certain to start Dec. 2, freezing the free-agent market and threatening the start of spring training in February. Negotiations have been taking place since last spring, and each side thinks the other has not made proposals that will lead toward an agreement replacing the five-year contract that expires at 11:59 p.m. EST on Dec. 1."
From the universal designated hitter to an expanded postseason format to a complete restructuring of the arbitration system, there is a lot to be discussed before the sides can agree to terms. And after the very public struggle to get in step for the start of the 2020 season, it's not surprising that optimism is in short supply.
It's not the most fun topic, but until the new CBA is ratified, the offseason will grind to a halt.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference.
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