UFC Fight Night 196: Costa vs. Vettori Odds, Schedule, Predictions

Alex Ballentine@Ballentine_AlexFeatured ColumnistOctober 23, 2021

UFC Fight Night 196: Costa vs. Vettori Odds, Schedule, Predictions

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    The UFC Fight Night 196 main event between Marvin Vettori and Paulo Costa is literally a little bigger than expected. 

    The highly anticipated middleweight matchup between Paulo Costa and Marvin Vettori had to be bumped up to a 195-pound catchweight bout when it became apparent Costa couldn't make the 185-pound limit. Then it was turned all the way up to a light heavyweight fight after he failed to make the new catchweight. 

    Because of Vetttori's willingness to fight Costa at any weight, the main event will push forward as scheduled, with Vettori receiving a significant chunk of Costa's potential winnings. 

    The co-main event is a chance for lightweight prospect Grant Dawson to shine. He will meet Ricky Glenn in the penultimate fight looking to extend his winning streak to nine. 

    Here's a look at the complete card along with a closer look at the night's biggest bouts.   

Fight Card, Schedule and Odds

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    Main card (ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET)

    • Paulo Costa (+160; $100 bet wins $160) vs. Marvin Vettori (-190; bet $190 to win $100)
    • Grant Dawson (-525) vs. Ricky Glenn (+385)
    • Jessica-Rose Clark (-160) vs. Joselyne Edwards (+140)
    • Alex Caceres (+225) vs. Seungwoo Choi (-280)
    • Francisco Trinaldo (-140) vs. Dwight Grant (+120)
    • Nicolae Negumereanu (-250) vs. Isaac Villanueva (+200)

    Prelims (ESPN+ at 1 p.m. ET)

    • Jun Yong Park (+110) vs. Gregory Rodrigues (-130)
    • Mason Jones (-435) vs. David Onama (+330)
    • Tabatha Ricci (-265) vs. Maria Oliveira (+215)
    • Jamie Pickett (+185) vs. Laureano Staropoli (-225)
    • Khama Worthy (+155) vs. Jai Herbert (-180)
    • Jeffrey Molina (-155) vs. Daniel Lacerda (+135)
    • Livinha Souza (-120) vs. Randa Markos (+100)
    • Jonathan Martinez (+110) vs. Zviad Lazishvili (-110)

    Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Costa vs. Vettori

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    Assuming Paulo Costa can get his weight cut figured out, this fight is a battle for middleweight relevance. With both Costa and Vettori recently losing to middleweight champion Israel Adesanya, the margin for error to continue pursuing the title is small. 

    The loser of this bout is going to have back-to-back losses with a loss to the champion on their record. In Vettori's case, it is two losses to the champion. In Costa's case, he's going to have to deal with the questions surrounding his weight and conditioning. 

    So it's fair to say the stakes are high. 

    Those questions about Costa's conditioning could well be what dictates who wins this fight. 

    Costa's a hulking power striker who has the ability to turn out the lights on anyone not named Israel Adesanya. However, it's fair to wonder what it would look like for Costa to reach the championship (or main event) rounds. 

    Costa's only trip to the third round came against noted cardio-averse powerhouse Yoel Romero. Vettori is much more comfortable going the distance and was tough enough to survive eight rounds with Adesanya over two fights. 

    Expect him to utilize his wrestling to nullify Costa long enough to wear him out and take over as the fight goes on. 

    Prediction: Vettori via decision. 

Dawson vs. Glenn

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    This feels much less like a fight designed to be competitive and much more a chance to show off Dawson. The 27-year-old is a perfect 5-0 since joining the UFC from Dana White's Contender Series. He hasn't lost a fight since April 2016 on the regional circuit. 

    Glenn is an appropriate opponent at this stage. The former WSOF alum is just crafty enough to test Dawson but doesn't pose many major threats. Glenn is a southpaw with decent striking, although he leaves a lot to be desired as a defensive fighter. 

    This is a fight that could be determined in the grappling department, though. 

    Dawson is fine in the standup, but he averages 3.44 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is roughly one per round. Glenn's takedown defense is nothing to write home about, so this could simply be a case of Dawson being able to impose his will. 

    Glenn is far from a grappling savant. The exchanges on the feet should be interesting. But Dawson is likely to not let those go on too long. 

    Prediction: Dawson via second-round TKO. 

Clark vs. Edwards

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    The card also features the return of veteran Jessica-Rose Clark who will be coming back from a torn ACL and hasn't fought in just over a year. 

    Across from the cage, she'll meet Joselyne Edwards. The 26-year-old from Panama has split her only two UFC fights and will be looking to prove she belongs in the organization. 

    Clark will have to show that she has fully recovered from her injury to win this one. She's giving up three inches of height and six inches of reach. If she's going to close that distance and get into striking or grappling range she's going to need to be explosive. 

    Edwards is against fighting in close quarters and does most of her work on the outside. She doesn't bring a lot of power to the page, but she's a traditional kickboxer who can outpoint an opponent. 

    Edwards' ability to utilize her length makes her an interesting pick despite the disparity in experience. 

    Prediction: Edwards via decision


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