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B/R College Football 2021 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Week 7

Adam Kramer@kegsneggsNational College Football Lead WriterOctober 14, 2021

Tennessee's Davy Crockett mascot waves a flag during the Vol Walk before an NCAA college football game against Bowling Green Thursday, Sept. 2, 2021, in Knoxville, Tenn. (AP Photo/Wade Payne)
Wade Payne/Associated Press

Week 6 of the 2021 college football season was a doozy. Scoreboards were broken, upsets were delivered and fields were stormed.

If Week 7 can come close to approaching it in terms of drama, we're in for a delightful encore.

From a betting perspective, Locks of the Week was essentially a wash last weekend. And for the season, that theme essentially carries over. 

At 28-30-2, I just haven't been able to find a rhythm. Yet. That rhythm is coming, and it starts this week. 

Before I get to my picks, here's what went right (and not-so-right) last weekend.

The Good: Washington State (+3.5) vs. Oregon State: This line absolutely stunk, and the underdog ultimately delivered. While the Beavers battled, Washington State was able to cover the points and win outright. (Also, I called the upset in picks.)

The Bad: West Virginia (+3) vs. Baylor: Woof. That's pretty much all I have to say about that. West Virginia fell behind early and then proceeded to fall behind more. This one never had a chance; at least I was able to focus elsewhere.

With that complete, onward to the picks. 

    

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Utah (+1) vs. Arizona State 

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

The Sun Devils have been kind to the bank account this season. In fact, allow me to thank Herm Edwards for the money he has made us over the past few weeks. But this week, I'm siding elsewhere.

As good as ASU has been as of late, these two teams share plenty in common. Both lost to BYU in (somewhat) ugly fashion. The only difference is that Utah followed up that defeat with a loss to San Diego State. The Aztecs are now ranked in the Top 25 of the AP Poll, so the loss has looked better with time. 

In recent weeks, Utah has looked much more polished. The Utes crushed USC in Week 6 as a three-point underdog, and they enter Week 7 with some momentum. 

Arizona State is likely to be a popular bet this week given the spread. I get that. Jayden Daniels is a wonderful QB, and this offense has pieces. But down go the Sun Devils in a thriller. 

    

Washington (-1.5) vs. UCLA 

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

Let's cozy up to the Pac-12 for a while longer. 

While I thought Washington was a tad overrated entering the year, this team is not devoid of talent.

The Huskies' schedule has also been strange. The loss to Michigan looks like a quality one, at least right now. The loss to Montana to open the year? Not so much. 

However, Washington has been improving in recent weeks. Although it still has only two wins, the point spread speaks to the quality of the roster and also the impact of playing at home. 

Meanwhile, UCLA has had a weird year. The darlings of the young season were blown out by Arizona State and also lost to Fresno State. That loss has not aged gracefully. 

While I couldn't help but get swept up in the Week 0 triumph over Hawai'i along with a win against LSU, we now know a lot more about what this team is. The point spread tells us that, too.

In a conference that doesn't appear to have a dominant team, home-field advantage will loom large. Washington 30, UCLA 24.

    

Missouri (+8.5) vs. Texas A&M 

L.G. Patterson/Associated Press

The hangover possibilities are spectacular. All of the necessary ingredients are in place. 

Texas A&M just beat Alabama in one of the biggest upsets of the year. The program and its fans are likely still celebrating. (I frankly can't blame anyone for that if so.) 

But what exactly did we just witness from the Aggies? Was this the turning point where it all finally clicked? Or did everything simply align for this one singular, powerful moment? 

The answer is likely somewhere in the middle. Football is weird like that. While I loved the Aggies' win, I don't necessarily believe that specific performance will carry over.

This has letdown written all over it. The point spread speaks to that as well. 

Missouri is still seeking its first cover of the season. That isn't something that any team wants to hear in the middle of October. The Tigers just barely got past North Texas. Before that, they were blown out by Tennessee. But the offense can score points.

This is only Texas A&M's second true road game of the year. Plus, the game will be played before noon. While Mizzou's run defense is horrid, the hangover keeps this game within the number. 

     

Nevada vs. Hawaii (Over 60.5) 

Lachlan Cunningham/Associated Press

Regardless of how your wagering goes Saturday, Nevada-Hawaii will be waiting.

With a scheduled start time of 10:30 p.m. EST, this glorious showcase—aka "chase" game—could go deep into the night. And I think there will be plenty of touchdowns to ensure it takes a while.

Sunday mornings are overrated anyway. Lean into this one.

Nevada still feels somewhat underrated. Outside of their loss to Kansas State, the Wolf Pack have been excellent. They're also averaging 36.8 points per game.

Hawai'i just enjoyed a bye week after beating Fresno State. The Warriors scored 41 points in the game before that against New Mexico State, and they've looked better since laying an egg against UCLA in the season opener.

Although I would lean Nevada when it comes to the spread, I could see Hawai'i hanging around for a while. And I don't believe it will be done with defense. 

Nevada 44, Hawaii, 27.

     

Tennessee (+3) vs. Ole Miss 

KNOXVILLE, TN - OCTOBER 09: Tennessee Volunteers fans and DJ Sterl the Pearl celebrate during the game against the South Carolina Gamecocks on October 9, 2021, at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, TN. (Photo by Bryan Lynn/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Icon Sportswire/Getty Images

If you like points, this is the game for you.

The current total sits at 81 points, which is one of the higher totals we'll get all season. That speaks to the kind of offense we're likely to see, and it will in no way be one-sided.

Ole Miss is going to score. Lane Kiffin and Matt Corral are a deadly combination, and the Rebels are currently the nation's No. 4 scoring offense. But as we've seen against both Alabama and Arkansas, the defense isn't completely repaired.

And Tennessee, which suddenly looks like a difficult matchup, could take full advantage.

While the loss to Pitt early in the season looked like a bad one, the Panthers have turned out to be quite good. Since then, the Tennessee offense, which ranks No. 7 nationally, has overwhelmed most of its opponents.

Like Texas A&M, this will be the Rebels' second away game of the year. Knoxville, which has been waiting to play in important games, will be up for this one. 

Tennessee pulls a mild upset. Many points will be scored.

    

Other Games on the Card 

GAINESVILLE, FL - OCTOBER 09: Florida Gators wide receiver Jacob Copeland (1) runs out alongside Florida Gators head coach Dan Mullen during the game between the Vanderbilt Commodores and the Florida Gators on October 9, 2021 at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium i
Icon Sportswire/Getty Images

Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech (Over 58): Don't sleep on this game. Kenny Pickett has been brilliant for Pitt, and the Hokies should score. While Virginia Tech wasn't kind to me last weekend against Notre Dame, these two will make up for it in Week 7. 

Wyoming (+3.5) vs. Fresno State: The Bulldogs' upset of Oregon feels like a distant memory, and the point spread in this game certainly reflects that. Wyoming rallies after last weekend's loss with an outright win and cover. 

Florida vs. LSU (Over 58.5): I'm not certain what to do with this spread, although I am expecting plenty of points. Despite all of the injuries LSU is dealing with, the offense does its part to help hit this over.

Auburn (+5.5) at Arkansas: Both of these teams have seen just how good Georgia is up close over the past two weeks. While neither outcome was ideal, Auburn is playing well on both sides of the ball. I'm ready for the Bo Nix experience.

    

Odds via DraftKings and accurate as of Wednesday.

   

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