WNBA Playoff Preview and Predictions: Who Advances to the Semifinals?

Seattle Storm head coach Noelle Quinn sat on the edge of her couch watching the two single-elimination games Thursday night between the Dallas Wings and Chicago Sky and the New York Liberty and Phoenix Mercury.

"You know, the single eliminations are tough, but within those you see just character come out," she said. "You see just the dog in people come out, and the competitive juices are going because people don't want to go home, so it was very fun to watch."

I was not surprised by the results. As predicted, the first matchup saw the Sky show their desperation at home with smothering defensive intensity. They outrebounded the Wings 47-35, with 15 of those boards coming from Candace Parker. She was on triple-double watch, finishing with 11 points, 15 rebounds and seven assists plus three steals. Parker, as expected, was everywhere on the stat sheet.

While Dallas clawed back in the third on clutch buckets from Satou Sabally and more intense defense from Izzy Harrison, the Sky knew how to punch back. The team with much more playoff experience, including single-elimination heartbreak, roared back and beat the Wings 81-64.

For the second game, the Liberty built off their final regular-season matchup against the Washington Mystics and took the Mercury all the way down to the final 0.4 seconds of regulation. While the Liberty fell 83-82 on a Brianna Turner free throw, New York prepared better than its opponent, and Mercury head coach Sandy Brondello admitted that postgame.

"We didn't play well; I'm not going to understate that," Brondello said. "We know we can be way better than what we were, but that's partly because of what New York did to us. So credit where credit's due. I thought they prepared very well. We'll learn a lot from it, and hopefully we'll be better in the next game."

No. 5 Phoenix Mercury vs. No. 4 Seattle Storm

The Big Question: With Injured Stars, Who Steps In?

Breanna Stewart (left foot injury) and Diana Taurasi (left ankle injury) both most likely won't play Sunday. Stewart was already ruled out Saturday, and Taurasi has been listed as questionable and didn't practice Saturday.

The key for both teams will be how role players perform. The last game the Storm played was at home in their 94-85 win against the Mercury. While Jewell Loyd's 37-point romp was important, the 37 and 34 minutes that Mercedes Russell and Ezi Magbegor played were crucial.

Both were efficient offensively, with Magbegor scoring 15 points on 6-of-10 shooting and Russell adding 14 on 7-of-9 from the field. But their defensive effort and execution impressed Quinn even more. Magbegor and Russell zeroed in on Brittney Griner, bodying up on her early in the shot clock and preventing her from getting easy touches in the paint.

Seattle got 42 of its points in the paint to Phoenix's 40. The Storm also shot 50 percent from three-point range (11 of 22). That type of effort and execution the Storm played in their regular-season finale is what Quinn expects to see Sunday.

"So just kind of wanting to bottle that up," she said. "Effortwise first and foremost, but also the execution that would entail our players hitting shots, moving the ball, not turning it over and being very, very focused on Skylar [Diggins-Smith], on BG, and of course if Diana plays you got to be locked in on her."

Quinn paid close attention to how the Liberty played the Mercury defensively. While she said her team has more size than New York and might not switch as often, she sees merit in the Storm potentially using their quicker guards and wings to help contain Griner as well. If that happens, the Mercury can take advantage, especially if Sophie Cunningham shows that Thursday night wasn't a fluke.

Double-teaming and sometimes tripling Griner comes with a cost. If the Mercury can make more shots from beyond the arc, they'll keep this game closer and dare the Storm to adjust.

The Matchup That Matters: While Loyd battling it out against Diggins-Smith might be the flashier matchup, what will determine who wins is who can be more productive on the wing. The Mercury escaped an upset on a clutch performance from Cunningham. Katie Lou Samuelson will have to keep her in check to make sure she doesn't have open looks. And Kia Nurse, who slipped under the screen to allow Betnijah Laney's game-tying three, will need to keep an eye on Samuelson and Stephanie Talbot.

Prediction: The Storm play harder and are more prepared without Stewart at their disposal. After clutch performances from Loyd and Magbegor, Seattle moves on.

No. 6 Chicago Sky vs. No. 3 Minnesota Lynx

The Big Question: Who Controls the Paint?

These were two very different teams when they last met. The last time the Sky took on the Lynx was Aug. 21, a game when Parker was out healing from her second ankle sprain of the season and Aerial Powers was still revving up to full strength in her first game back from thumb surgery. Stretch big Damiris Dantas, who suffered a Lisfranc injury 10 days later against the Liberty, was still healthy for the Lynx.

Kamil Krzaczynski/Associated Press

Even the first time these teams met in mid-June, Parker was in her fourth game with the Sky after being out for around three weeks with her first ankle injury, and Layshia Clarendon (who goes by they, she and he pronouns) and the Lynx were still figuring each other out after Minnesota signed them around three weeks before.

But since, both have found their identity as teams that score over 45 percent of their points in the paint. The Sky finished the regular season first in that metric with 46.7 percent of their points coming in the paint, while the Lynx finished third at 45.1.

"So it's going to come down to who is more persistent, who is playing better schemes and who's more determined to keep people out of the paint," Lynx center Sylvia Fowles said earlier this week after practice.

The difference between these two teams, however, is how they score in the paint and the pace at which they do it. Fowles noted earlier this week that in the Lynx's first game against the Sky, Chicago "ran us to death." The Sky have a roster that's constructed with players who can get out and run.

During the regular season, Chicago boasted a pace of 97.46, third-best in the league. Chicago's guards and guard-like forwards run the show.

Not only is Courtney Vandersloot controlling the flow of the game, but Parker's point-forward tendencies have been woven into the Sky's identity. Both have routinely found Kahleah Copper, Chicago's leading scorer in the Sky's 81-64 win over the Wings. Her quickness and efficiency has allowed her to be a menace in the paint, with 55 percent of her points coming there this year, fourth in the league among guards.

Speaking of that, Clarendon was second among guards with 65.1 percent of his points coming in the paint. But the Lynx were just seventh in pace this season at 95.74. Why is that? Clarendon muscles her way into the paint rather than with quickness, and the Lynx have Fowles at their disposal, one of the greatest WNBA centers ever, who scores 75.4 percent of her points in the paint.

"Obviously we have one of the best centers in the league, and we want to get Syl Fowles the ball any chance we get," Lynx wing Bridget Carleton said earlier this week. "We want to be able to do that and [pass] it to her when she's open and also just driving and attacking. Layshia getting in there and getting two feet in the paint and [finding] shooters. I think that's when we are at our best."

It took the Lynx and the Sky a while to figure out when and exactly how they are at their best. Dealing with injuries and players in and out of the lineup, Lynx head coach Cheryl Reeve explained how encountering that type of adversity prepares a team for the playoffs.

"It's kind of made us who we are," she said. "Some of the shortcomings and challenges, and that's all part of the journey, and it's made us, you know, we've got some battle wounds, so to speak, and we were tested and all of that good stuff. I'm not sure any of it means anything when we go on Sunday, but I think it's fair to say that we've been through some stuff and we know how to navigate difficult moments in a game."

Matchup That Matters: Both Parker and Fowles, who went Nos. 1 and 2 in the 2008 WNBA draft, anchor their respective teams. Which seasoned veteran is most effective keeping her pulse on the paint?

Prediction: With two teams that play through the paint at different paces, the battle of strength and size against quickness and athleticism will be on full display. Although Clarendon was ruled questionable in Minnesota's latest injury report, the Lynx will use their home court to their advantage and grind out the win after the Sky play them down to the final minute.