2021 NHL Stanley Cup Final: Gambling Guide to Canadiens vs. Lightning

Wait, didn't we just do this?

Yes, though it might seem ages ago given the chaos of the 2020-21 regular season, the NHL is poised to begin its second championship round in less than a year when the Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning square off in a best-of-seven series that will end with the hoisting of the Stanley Cup.

The Lightning finished off the second title run in franchise history just 273 days ago, defeating the Dallas Stars in Game 6 on Sept. 28, 2020, exactly nine months before they will commence their quest for a final-round repeat Monday night with the first of two games at Amalie Arena in Tampa.

Games 3 and 4 will be played at the Bell Centre in Montreal, while Games 5, 6 and 7 will rotate from Tampa to Montreal and back to Tampa if necessary.

And while returning to the brink of another Cup hoist was widely anticipated for the champs, it's much more a surprise for the Canadiens, who were 18th in the league's overall standings in the regular season and arrived to the playoffs with the lowest point total among the 16 qualifying teams.

Nevertheless, Montreal rallied from a 3-1 deficit to eliminate the North Division champion Toronto Maple Leafs, swept the Winnipeg Jets and defeated the Vegas Golden Knights in six games.

The Canadiens haven't won a Cup since 1993 and have faced the Lightning in three series since.

They earned a four-game sweep in a first-round Eastern Conference matchup in 2013-14 but lost a six-game second-round series to Tampa Bay a year later and were swept in the Eastern semifinals in 2003-04.

Needless to say, the uniqueness of the matchup provides many intriguing options when it comes to the gambling side of the series, so the B/R hockey and betting teams got together to take a look at the numbers and provide suggestions on where prudent speculation could yield significant accumulation.

Click through to see our thoughts, and let us know when the money starts flowing in.

How Long Will the Final Go?

David Becker/Associated Press

Let's face it, this one's something of a crapshoot.

And anyone who insists they know precisely how many games the Cup final will last is, well, full of it.

What we do have, however, is historical data.

There have been exactly 60 final-round games played over the past 10 seasons, yielding an average of six games per series. Moreover, both the Lightning and Canadiens arrive to the final coming off longish contests in their respective conference finals—which Tampa Bay won in seven games and Montreal in six.

The fine folks at DraftKings have provided six betting options from which to choose, including over and under wagers for 4.5 games, 5.5 games and 6.5 games. Not surprisingly, the chalk plays are over 4.5 (-625) and under 6.5 (-335), taking a sweep out of play on one side and a seven-game duel off the table on the other.

A correct choice in either direction would provide a perfectly respectable $100 profit.

But if you're going to the trouble of betting, why settle for respectability?

The biggest payouts would come from under 4.5 (+425) and over 6.5 (+250), and given the dogged determination both teams have shown in winning 12 games we'll suggest putting your money on the second extreme and pulling for an all-out marathon to close out the tournament.

The B/R Pick: Over 6.5

Series Spread

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

Now that you have looked at how long the series will go, it's time to up the ante.

Challenge No. 2 comes in the form of not only figuring who will win but what the margin in games will be.

For example, if Tampa Bay wins in six games, its margin is plus-2 (4-2) and Montreal's is minus-2.

Or if the Canadiens win in seven games, their margin is plus-1 (4-3) and the Lightning's is minus-1.

There are four matching choices available for each team—plus-1.5, plus-2.5, minus-1.5 and minus 2.5—and the odds-on selections going in are Tampa Bay at plus-2.5 (-1250) and plus-1.5 (-435).

Correct picks on either of those would yield a $100 profit.

Surprisingly, a wager on Montreal at plus-2.5—meaning the Canadiens would need to win in either four (4-0, +4) or five (4-1, +3) games—would also require a $230 investment for the chance to win $100. 

It's not expected. And without a chance at a profit, it's not worth the risk.

As it stands, the biggest payout on the board comes with Montreal at minus-2.5 (+700), which means a $700 profit for a $100 wager if the Canadiens lose in either four (-4) or five (-3) games—which would shock precisely no one outside Quebec given Tampa Bay's skill and status as the defending champion.

Sorry, Montreal, but that's the play to make.

The B/R Pick: Montreal Minus-2.5

Conn Smythe

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

The Conn Smythe Trophy is awarded to the MVP of the Stanley Cup playoffs.

It typically goes to a prolific scorer, lockdown defender or stellar goaltender from the Cup-winning team, as was the case in 2019-20 when Tampa Bay blueliner Victor Hedman took home the hardware.

But it doesn't always go that way.

Five Conn Smythe winners have come from beaten finalists, including four goalies and one forward.

The latter fact provides an intriguing option for this year's final, where either goaltender could make an awfully good case for the trophy given his performance through the first three rounds.

Montreal's Carey Price has a 2.02 goals-against average and a .934 save percentage through 17 playoff games, while the Lightning's Andrei Vasilevskiy has posted a 1.99 goals-against and a .936 save percentage across 18 games. So if the series goes long and the losing goalie is stellar, particularly Price, it's a thought.

In all, 12 players—six from each team—have been presented as betting options prior to the series, ranging from Vasilevskiy (+135) and Price (+195) at the low-risk end to Tampa Bay's Alex Killorn (+10000) and Montreal's Brendan Gallagher (+12500) on the extreme-profit end.

It would be no surprise, though, if the winner emerged from the field of eight forwards and defensemen in the middle, which includes Nikita Kucherov (+300), Brayden Point (+400), Hedman (+5000) and Steven Stamkos (+6000) from the Lightning, alongside Cole Caufield (+5500), Nick Suzuki (+6000), Tyler Toffoli (+6000) and Corey Perry (+7500) from the Canadiens. 

Only one of the 39 non-goalies to win (Reggie Leach, Philadelphia, 1976) has been from the losing side, so a prospective wager will likely go in lockstep with whichever team a bettor thinks will win.

Add in a little 2020 sentiment too, and we'll suggest a lean toward the Tampa Bay captain.

The B/R Pick: Steven Stamkos (+6000)

Who Will Win the Stanley Cup Final?

Andrew Bershaw/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Decisions. Decisions.

When it comes to this year's final, it's a pretty stark contract.

Tampa Bay against Montreal.

On one side, you have a team that's as close to a dynasty as there is in today's NHL, having reached the conference finals in 2017-18, established a league record for regular-season wins in 2018-19, put it all together to capture a Stanley Cup in 2019-20 and returned for another shot this summer.

On the other, you have a fourth-place team that came from oblivion to eliminate a first-round rival and then found its stride in the subsequent two rounds to win eight of 10 games and win two more series.

The differences are aptly illustrated by the betting lines.

The Lightning are listed at minus-275 compared to the Canadiens at plus-225, meaning it will take a $275 investment to win $100 if Tampa Bay repeats and a $100 flyer to get $225 if Montreal surprises.

The champs handled two of the league's top four teams—the Florida Panthers and Carolina Hurricanes—in the initial two rounds of the playoffs after finishing third in the Central Division, losing just three times.

They then beat the New York Islanders in a semifinal series for the second consecutive season, outscoring them by a 15-3 margin in four victories while losing three times by a single goal.

And in the past four series-clinchers—dating back to the Cup win in September—goaltender Vasilevskiy has been scored on precisely zero times.

None of this is to say the Canadiens aren't worthy.

Price is the best goalie in the league not currently playing for the Lightning, and speedy winger Caufield is an odds-on favorite to win the Calder Trophy next season.

But while Montreal is a legit opponent, the Lightning are a truly great team.

The B/R Pick: Tampa Bay (-275)

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