Mayweather vs. Paul: Early Fight Odds and Betting AdviceMay 31, 2021
Six months on from when it was announced, undefeated boxing great Floyd Mayweather Jr. is scheduled to get in a boxing ring with YouTuber Logan Paul on Sunday.
In the latest instance of an internet celebrity lacing up the boxing gloves to make massive amounts of money, Paul will fight Mayweather in an exhibition bout that figures to be heavy on spectacle.
Regardless of what you think of the matchup, two things are true: tons of people will tune in and all parties involved will walk away much richer.
That could also include bettors who play the right hand and crush their picks. While more props are likely to come out as we get closer to fight night, there are some early odds out there that bettors can start debating.
Logan Paul: +700 ($100 bet wins $700)
Floyd Mayweather: -1600 ($100 bet wins $6.25)
Odds via Oddschecker.
At those odds, the only play here is if you believe that Paul is going to pull the massive upset. Mayweather's odds simply don't provide enough value.
They are interesting, though.
According to Samuel Farley of Oddschecker, Mayweather was expected to have even shorter odds to the tune of -10000. However, he opened at -2500 which has been bet down to -1600. Farley noted that a little more than half of the bets that have come in already have been on Paul.
The fact that this is an exhibition bout and could therefore have some quirky rules and doesn't go on Mayweather's official (perfect) record adds some intrigue. If this is anything close to a real fight, Mayweather will not be in trouble, much less lose it.
Regardless of what you think of Mayweather's opponents throughout his career, there is little denying his greatness as a defensive boxer. Money is 50-0 and rarely takes much damage in his fights.
He may not have fought everyone in his prime but has beaten the likes of Oscar De La Hoya, Canelo Alvarez, Juan Manuel Marquez and Manny Pacquiao.
Even at 44, Mayweather's conditioning, athleticism and pure skill should give him huge advantages. He isn't that far removed from his 2017 win over Conor McGregor, and The Notorious was at least a decorated UFC champion.
Meanwhile, Paul is set to contest just his third fight, unofficial or otherwise. He fought fellow YouTuber KSI twice. The first, fought under amateur rules and with headgear, was declared a draw. The rematch was a professional bout and saw Paul drop a decision.
In those bouts, Paul showed a decent jab but not much else. The punch was effective in establishing distance but was often followed by flailing wild hooks. KSI was able to avoid them. So Mayweather should have no problem in negating the neophyte's offense.
Again, if this is a legitimate boxing match, there's little reason to believe Mayweather won't win despite giving up a lot of size and youth.
Mayweather's history with exhibitions should lend credence to the idea he will win and do so in short order. His only other exhibition took place in Japan in 2018 when he fought kickboxer Tenshin Nasukawa. The fight was scheduled for three rounds, but Mayweather wasted no time in winning via TKO in the first round.
Nasukawa's corner was forced to throw in the towel after he was knocked down three times.
The bottom line is the best play for this event is probably to wait until the prop bets come out closer to fight night. The bout is scheduled for eight rounds. Assuming the over/under is somewhere near four, the under could be the right play.
Mayweather by knockout is also a strong play if the odds are right. While some said he carried McGregor through the early rounds to put on an entertaining fight, there's also truth to the notion that McGregor's power necessitated a more cautious approach.
Paul has little to offer. Then there's the matter of a potential fight with Paul's brother, fellow YouTuber-turned-boxer, Jake Paul. The brash celebrity already crashed some media events for this fight, and it's not a stretch to say this fight could be setting up a chance for Paul, who has won a few fights, to get some revenge.
An early knockout followed by a confrontation with the younger Paul could set up another big payday for Mayweather and add another spectacle to the recent trend.