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Super Bowl 55: Over/Under Line, Odds Predictions for Chiefs vs. Buccaneers
February 5, 2021
The last two Super Bowls had the same expectations as Super Bowl LV in terms of offensive output.
However, the last two NFL championship tilts did not produce fireworks for four quarters, and the under hit in both games.
The Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the potential to reverse that trend on Sunday because they have two of the best offenses in the league.
Tom Brady led the Buccaneers to 30 or more points in their three playoff games, while Patrick Mahomes guided the Chiefs to 38 points in the AFC Championship Game.
If both offenses play up to their potential, the over of 56 points should hit without a sweat.
Super Bowl LV Odds
Spread: Kansas City (-3)
Over/Under: 56
Moneyline: Kansas City -150 (bet $150 to win $100); Tampa Bay +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Odds Prediction
Over 56
Kansas City had to wait until the fourth quarter of Super Bowl LIV to put on a stellar offensive display.
One of the themes of Kansas City's Super Bowl run was slow starts. It had to come from behind to defeat the Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans, and it produced 10 first-half points against the San Francisco 49ers.
The 20 combined points totaled in the opening 30 minutes of Super Bowl LIV led to the under hitting. The game finished with 51 points.
Andy Reid's team shed the slow playoff starts against the Cleveland Browns and Buffalo Bills. It wracked up 19 points by halftime in the divisional round and carried a 21-12 lead into the locker room in the AFC Championship Game.
The only thing that slowed down Kansas City's offense in the last two games was the injury suffered by Mahomes in the second half against the Browns.
If the Chiefs start fast for the third straight game, the over should be in good shape, and we could witness a contest in the 60s.
Tampa Bay's three playoff contests averaged 53.7 points, and an argument can be made that those totals would have been higher if better quarterbacks were on the other end.
Taylor Heinicke did a nice job filling in for the Washington Football Team, but he did not match Brady's quality, while Drew Brees lacked the arm strength to be a consistent threat to Brady.
Aaron Rodgers led the Green Bay Packers to 26 points against the Tampa Bay defense. Mahomes put up 27 on the Bucs in Week 12.
The Chiefs produced 20 first-half points in their last trip to Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. Tyreek Hill had touchdown catches of 75 and 44 yards in that stanza.
In the first quarter of that game, the Bucs ran 14 offensive plays and punted on four occasions. They improved with a seven-play, four-minute drive to score a touchdown and then found the end zone two more times in the second half.
If the Bucs start that slow again, it will drum up memories of the New England Patriots' 13-3 win over the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl LIII, in which neither offense could get going despite lofty expectations to put up a ton of points.
We likely will not see that on Sunday since Brady has more offensive weapons to throw the ball to, starting with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Brady's utilization of Antonio Brown, Scotty Miller, Cameron Brate and Rob Gronkowski should keep the Chiefs secondary off balance enough to produce a few early scoring drives.
If Brady works well with his depth and Mahomes combines early and often with Hill and Travis Kelce, both offenses should get into a groove that allows them to hit the 30-point mark.
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90. Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference.
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