Realistic Landing Spots Top NFL Free Agents Should Avoid in 2021
Sensible NFL free-agent fits sometimes just don't work.
While a top NFL free agent might fill a need for a team with ample cap space, said team might not feature the right scheme fit, opportunity for production or chance at winning that the player might prefer.
The top names set to the free-agent market often have multiple suitors. That's one reason why Tom Brady's decision to join the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last offseason was such a shocker. Other teams might have made sense as well, but he likely wouldn't be about to play in his 10th Super Bowl.
Take a look at some of the top 2021 NFL free agents and destinations they should avoid this offseason.
RB Aaron Jones: New York Jets
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Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones is the best running back set to hit the open market.
The 26-year-old has rushed for 3,364 yards and 37 scores over 651 career attempts, and he's caught 131 of his 184 targets for 1,057 yards and six touchdowns as well. He's a versatile workhorse who has yet to miss more than four games in a season.
It's almost impossible to predict how the running back market will shake out these days. Melvin Gordon III signed a two-year, $16 million with the Denver Broncos in free agency last offseason, while the Cincinnati Bengals handed Joe Mixon a four-year, $48 million extension. The Packers didn't do so with Jones, and they're now projected to be $31.9 million over the 2021 salary cap.
The New York Jets, who have a projected $65.6 million in cap space and a need at the position, would make sense as a suitor for Jones. But going from the Packers to a team that has finished above .500 only once in the past decade and continues to rebuild doesn't seem too appealing.
Jones should instead prefer to go to a running back-needy team that is much closer to contending, such as the Miami Dolphins.
WR Allen Robinson II: Chicago Bears
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Allen Robinson II has a chance to free himself from quarterback purgatory this offseason.
Since the Jacksonville Jaguars selected him with a second-round pick in 2014, Robinson has largely caught passes from Blake Bortles, Chad Henne, Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles. In spite of that, he has 457 career receptions for 5,999 yards and 39 touchdowns, and he's fresh off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons.
Robinson has missed only three games over the past three years, but the Chicago Bears finished 8-8 in two of those seasons. He missed the Jaguars' lone promising season when he tore his ACL in a season-opening win over the Houston Texans in 2017.
The Bears are over the projected cap but likely can wiggle out of it, so they may be able to float Robinson a competitive offer. But if potential contenders with better quarterbacks like Baltimore and Miami come calling—don't forget Bill Belichick and New England, either—Robinson should seek out his third NFL team.
QB Cam Newton: Indianapolis Colts
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It took until July for Cam Newton to find a new home last offseason.
The 2015 MVP wound up signing a one-year, $1.75 million contract with the New England Patriots, which seemed like a huge win for head coach Bill Belichick. However, Newton struggled over 15 games, completing 65.8 percent of his passes for 2,657 yards, only eight touchdowns and 10 interceptions. While he had another 592 yards and 12 scores as a rusher, he went only 7-8 as a starter.
The pandemic-abridged offseason and a slew of Patriots opt-outs likely didn't help Newton's cause in 2020. This offseason could feature even more quarterback shuffling, which the Los Angeles Rams kicked off by trading Jared Goff and multiple draft picks to the Detroit Lions for Matthew Stafford.
The Indianapolis Colts have plenty of uncertainty under center after Philip Rivers' retirement and with Jacoby Brissett headed into free agency. Newton would seemingly have a shot as a starter there, but with No. 1 wideout T.Y. Hilton, defensive end Justin Houston and cornerback Xavier Rhodes all headed into free agency, the Colts might be in for regression regardless.
Other teams in search of a quarterback upgrade such as the Denver Broncos or Washington Football Team have better surrounding pieces that could allow Newton to thrive. Indianapolis should be his last resort.
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OL Joe Thuney: Cincinnati Bengals
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Offensive lineman Joe Thuney should have his pick of NFL teams this offseason given the dire need for better protection across the league.
Thuney, a third-round pick in 2016, has yet to miss a game for the New England Patriots. While playing under the franchise tag last year, he allowed only two sacks and got called for three penalties on 980 snaps, earning a strong 74.2 grade from Pro Football Focus.
Thuney's consistency and positional versatility make him the best interior lineman available this offseason. The Cincinnati Bengals should be particularly interested in him given their $35.6 million in cap space and need to protect 2020 No. 1 overall pick Joe Burrow, who suffered a season-ending knee injury as a rookie.
But given his talent and the need around the league, Thuney shouldn't have to settle for a team that hasn't won more than seven games since 2015. The Bengals still have to develop offensive tackle Jonah Williams, never mind find another starting-caliber tackle, which would put more pressure on Thuney.
New England has $20-plus million more cap space than Cincinnati should Thuney want to stay home. Otherwise, he could pursue an instant contender with cap space.
S Anthony Harris: Minnesota Vikings
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Minnesota Vikings safety Anthony Harris continues to be one of the best at his position, albeit quietly.
Harris has gotten PFF grades of 91.1 in 2019 and 89.0 in 2018, and it ranks him as the sixth-best free agent available this offseason. Although he regressed a bit this past season, the Vikings defense as a whole scuffled en route to a 7-9 record.
The Vikings should want to re-sign Harris, but they're $14.6 million above the projected cap. That should make the veteran safety turn his eyes elsewhere.
Head coach Mike Zimmer was critical of his defense late in the season and figures to rebuild it this offseason. Harris' versatility and production would be boons for teams in need of secondary help, including the Washington Football Team and Cleveland Browns.
Edge Matthew Judon: New York Jets
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Matthew Judon seems like the latest in the line of Baltimore Ravens edge-defenders to break out and then leave in free agency.
Judon should go the Za'Darius Smith route and ink a massive free-agent deal with a contender like Green Bay rather than signing with a rebuilding team that has plenty of cap space.
It would make sense for the New York Jets to express interest in Judon. They badly need pressure-creators and are projected to have $65.6 million to spend this offseason, which could free up premium draft picks to address other holes.
But Judon, who's finished with six or more sacks in four straight seasons and at least 31 pressures in each of his last three seasons, should prefer a team much closer to contention. The New England Patriots and Los Angeles Chargers are both projected to have $20-plus million in cap space, and the latter is poised to lose Melvin Ingram in free agency.
Edge Shaquil Barrett: Jacksonville Jaguars
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Earning a Super Bowl trip with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could make Shaquil Barrett want to stay in town. However, the Buccaneers have a number of notable free agents this offseason and less than $30 million in cap space, which suggests he'd have to take a discount to re-sign.
The rebuilding Jacksonville Jaguars could throw some of their league-high $69.7 million of cap space at Barrett, but he should have plenty of options this offseason.
After racking up a league-leading 19.5 sacks in 2019, he had only 8.0 on the franchise tag this season. If the Buccaneers can't afford to retain him, playoff hopefuls such as the Miami Dolphins and Dallas Cowboys should be interested in his disruptive skill set.
While the Jaguars could be on the upswing thanks to likely No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence, it would be jarring for Barrett to go from a Super Bowl to a one-win team with one season above .500 in the past decade.
WR Corey Davis: Washington Football Team
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Fresh off a breakout season, 2017 No. 5 overall pick Corey Davis could be on the hunt to earn a No. 1 role. That doesn't figure to happen on the run-first Tennessee Titans with A.J. Brown in town.
The Washington Football Team might not be able to offer Davis a No. 1 role, but they're projected to have $33.1 million in cap space and need a complement to breakout star Terry McLaurin. Davis could slide in as the 1B to McLaurin's 1A, much like he did with Brown this past season.
However, Washington has an enormous question mark under center. Unless it agrees to trade a proven signal-caller between now and the start of free agency, Davis would have to worry how a major downgrade at quarterback might affect his production.
Teams with better quarterback situations like Cincinnati, Miami and perhaps even Baltimore should be interested in seeing whether Davis can continue building on his impressive 2020 campaign.
All salary-cap figures via Spotrac.
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