NBA Youngsters on the Edge of All-Star Status
Voting for the 2021 NBA All-Star rosters is open and runs through Feb. 16, which means it's a good time to start speculating about who will make the cut.
This process is generally reserved for propping up the usual faces. The thing about superstars is they tend to remain superstars for a while. That doesn't leave a whole lot of room for new names.
Every year, though, a fresh face or five always break through the barrier of veterans and earn their first All-Star selection. This one's for them.
To keep emphasis on the kids, only players in their age-24 seasons or younger are eligible for inclusion. Jerami Grant, 26, Julius Randle, 26, and Christian Wood, 25, have our apologies.
Please note that not all of these players are guaranteed an Eastern or Western Conference roster spot. All-Star voting is fickle and seldom favors first-timers. But everyone within this crop of studs has at least a reasonable or better chance of getting the nod and figures to remain a part of the discussion in the coming years.
That by itself is worth spotlighting.
Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics
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Jaylen Brown played himself to the brink of an All-Star selection last season. The 24-year-old should be penciled in as a lock now.
The numbers are staggering—and drowning in career highs: 27.1 points, 3.5 assists and 1.5 steals per game while hitting 55.8 percent of his twos and 44.1 percent of his threes. The offensive leap he's making is comprehensive. It isn't just one thing; it's everything.
Brown's shot-making is more dynamic. He's shooting 54.4 percent on pull-up jumpers inside the arc and finishing at a career-high 70.0 percent clip around the rim. He doesn't get to the charity stripe a ton, but he draws more shooting fouls than a typical wing and is hitting 77.4 percent of his free throws, good for another career high.
And yet, Brown's playmaking is the real surprise. He's on pace to have more assists this season than the previous two combined. His improvement is visceral. He is navigating the half court with a noticeably better feel and has diversified his decision-making.
Gone are the one-track drives. He is trading heavily contested looks around the basket for dump-offs and kick-outs. The Boston Celtics have yet again upped his pick-and-roll volume, and he looks like a natural when working the two-man game with his bigs, even if he can play a touch slower and cough up possession slightly more often in those situations.
Fazing him is getting harder and harder. Not even Ben Simmons could derail his performance during Boston's back-to-back losses to the Philadelphia 76ers. And this says nothing of the defensive value Brown still brings. There is a totality to his game—the kind of completeness that has taken him, it seems, from fringe to perennial All-Star.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander carved a clear path to entrenched stardom over his first two seasons—so much so that his next frontier was a given: running an entire offense.
The minutes he spent without Chris Paul on the floor last year raised questions about whether he had that primary-pilot gene. That is a non-issue now. He is both the Oklahoma City Thunder's scoring and playmaking lifeline. Their offensive rating plummets by a team-high 14.9 points per 100 possessions when he's on the bench.
That plunge matches the eye test. Gilgeous-Alexander established himself as a methodical change-of-pace ball-handler long ago, and he's using those same variations of speed to set up his teammates this season. He continues to show patience without stalling his dribble in search of finding the less obvious pass, but he's also whipping one-handed fastballs and occasionally attacking at warp speed to put defenses on tilt in the half court.
Assuming more control of the offense has given way to growing pains. His turnover rate has spiked, and he's testing higher-leverage passes that don't always pan out. This is part of the job description. He is plumbing uncharted territory, and things could be worse. He's also generally handling the extra volume admirably.
This rings just as true with his scoring. More than 82 percent of his made buckets are going unassisted, including 64.5 percent of his three-point conversions—demonstrative increases over last year's marks of 70.9 and 46.0, respectively. He's on pace to shoot a career high on both twos and threes despite the added difficulty.
Bagging his first All-Star selection may be out of the question this year. The Western Conference's guard pool remains a bloodbath even after James Harden migrated east. On the flip side, Gilgeous-Alexander is playing well enough to at least give himself an above-average chance. Only two other players are averaging more than 20 points and six assists while matching his effective field-goal percentage: LeBron James and Nikola Jokic.
Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies
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Missed time because of a sprained left ankle has limited Ja Morant's sophomore sample, but it has not slowed his momentum. The 21-year-old remains one of the league's most entertaining players.
Though viral jams helped pique national attention and boost his resume last season, his game is more a marriage of craft and substance. Every dribble he takes feels like the prelude to some sort of red-carpet event.
Will he drop in a nifty floater? Throw an impossible jump pass? Confound a defender with an abracadabra hesitation inside-out dribble? Toss a half-court lob? Finish a scoop layup high off the glass? Dunk in defiance of gravity?
Morant's progress from his rookie year is mostly subtle, but it still pops. His efficiency has skyrocketed right along with his usage. He's shooting better than 58 percent on two-pointers, including 63.0 percent at the rim (82nd percentile) and 56.5 percent on floaters (13-of-23).
His 28.6 percent three-point clip, meanwhile, is misleading. He's canning 37.5 percent of his pull-up triples (3-of-8) and 16.7 percent on catch-and-fire treys (1-of-6). The former is encouraging; the latter will get better.
The degree to which he creates for his teammates remains stark. He both passes them open and bends defenses to the point of implosion on their behalf. His Memphis Grizzlies running mates are hitting 45.5 percent of their threes off his passes, compared to 31.9 percent otherwise.
Fewer than 10 games isn't a lot off which to work. But Morant's detonations are not some fly-by-night phenomenon. His 22.6 points and 7.0 assists per game are an extension of everything he did last season. If he turns into a consistent, moderate-volume three-pointer shooter, it's game-over.
Collin Sexton, Cleveland Cavaliers
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Collin Sexton's third season is being billed as a breakthrough. It is more like a continuation.
This is by far the best basketball he has ever played, but he hinted at more complicated shot-making and reliable passing toward the end of last season. He has merely taken that upswing, injected it with jet fuel and made it his new normal.
No part of his game lacks improvement. Already a great three-point shooter, he's downing 43.5 percent of his treys. Among everyone attempting at least five pull-up jumpers per game, his 54.3 effective field-goal percentage ranks seventh, just ahead of Khris Middleton and Kevin Durant.
He is getting to the foul line more often despite taking a smaller share of his shots at the rim, where he also happens to be converting a career-best 63 percent of his looks. His defense is just plain better. He's not getting displaced as often, and opposing ball-handlers are averaging just 0.85 points per possessions against him in the pick-and-roll (61st percentile).
The strides Sexton is making as a passer have gargantuan implications for both the now and later. He appears to have great chemistry with every one of the Cleveland Cavaliers' bigs and is deferring with clearer intent, throwing passes and creating shots that wouldn't exist if another player was on the ball.
Sexton's rise as a playmaker is palpable—both seen and felt. He has gone from averaging 6.2 potential assists last season to 9.3 this year. He's flat-out looking to defer more. And 43.1 percent of his drives are ending with a pass, a huge jump from last year's 32.4 percent.
Not every aspect of Sexton's scorching-hot start may hold. That's fine. He has room to come off this high without actually regressing. Durant, James, Kawhi Leonard and CJ McCollum are the only other players clearing 25 points and four assists per game while shooting at least 50 percent on twos and 40 percent from beyond the arc.
Sexton deserves an All-Star nod. And at this rate, his first selection won't be his last.
Zion Williamson, New Orleans Pelicans
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Zion Williamson's sophomore season has flown somewhat under the radar. That absence of rosy sentiments is more of an indictment on the New Orleans Pelicans than the 20-year-old himself. The team has not played well. He, on the other hand, remains very good.
Hair-splitters will harp on his defense. That includes Pelicans coach Stan Van Gundy. The criticism is not necessarily overblown. His off-ball attention span drifts. Opponents are taking and making noticeably more corner threes when he's in the game, which lines up with his tendency to stray too far toward the middle and lose track of shooters.
Still, Zion has at least shown he can make plays when guarding on the ball. He has good hands in one-on-one situations. More than that, he erases his defensive problems at the other end. He's one of just nine players averaging over 23 points on better than 62 percent true shooting. That is bonkers.
There is also more to his game than pure explosion. He is a highlight reel in transition, on putbacks and going downhill, but he plays with more deliberateness than credited. More of his baskets are going unassisted, and he has a subtle change-of-direction shiftiness when putting the ball on the floor. Among everyone who has finished at least 30 iso possessions, his 73.9 effective field-goal percentage ranks first.
Don't fall into the trap of thinking Zion is somehow behind schedule. Overly ambitious expectations were placed on the Pelicans. Their failure to meet them isn't on him. That he's already so dominant offensively is absurd. He hasn't yet played in 50 career games. What he's done this season, flaws and all, only reinforces his superstar trajectory.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by B/R's Adam Fromal.
