Advice for StatHero NFL Picks for Super Wild Card Weekend
The NFL's expanded Super Wild Card Weekend makes for an intriguing fantasy slate.
With the postseason underway, fantasy aficionados can keep playing on StatHero through Rivals. Like their team-based, survivor-style contests that ran throughout the season, contestants will compete against one lineup assembled by the house.
This time, however, gamers will assemble a squad of six players from all six matchups. They'll have a $40,000 budget to craft a lineup consisting of an MVP (skill-position player whose points double), quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and flex spot.
Another important distinction: Rivals lineups lock at the time of submission. Changes can't be made after entering a contest, so keep that in mind before finalizing a lineup led by Alvin Kamara.
Players can pick their poison by choosing which of the two StatHero lineups to face. Both formidable squads are anchored by Derrick Henry at MVP with Lamar Jackson at quarterback.
The following lineup looks to counteract those rosters with a different MVP, as well as the passer who must keep pace with Jackson this weekend. While two of the inclusions are particularly risky for a head-to-head contest, their prices clear up ample space for sturdier backfield stars.
MVP: RB Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts ($7,500)
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Gamers could simply copy StatHero with Henry as MVP and try to win elsewhere. Let's instead give another red-hot AFC South running back the captain's chair.
After missing Week 12's game against Henry's Tennessee Titans on the COVID-19 list, Taylor tallied 723 total yards and eight touchdowns in the last five games. He started his rookie campaign in a three-man committee with the Indianapolis Colts before seizing the job with 111 total touches (97 carries, 14 catches) during that time frame.
There's certainly risk in taking a running back with a limited pass-catching role when his team is the underdog. Yet the same scenario applies to Henry and Nick Chubb, the other healthy workhorse backs on the opening-round slate.
Taylor at least has the strongest matchup of the trio. Of all the 14 playoff participants, only the Titans and Kansas City Chiefs permitted more rushing yards per game than the Buffalo Bills (119.6) during the regular season. They also allowed 4.6 yards per carry and 21 rushing touchdowns despite finishing 13-3.
Having found the end zone in each of the final five contests—including twice in a Week 16 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers—Taylor provides a stable floor in what could be one of the weekend's highest-scoring affairs.
QB: Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans ($9,200)
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In a weekend featuring two MVPs, three former No. 1 picks (not including Jameis Winston) and four Super Bowl champions at quarterback, turn to the unheralded Ryan Tannehill for value.
Continuing last year's redemption story, Tannehill accumulated 3,819 passing yards with 38 total touchdowns (33 passing, five rushing) and the NFL's fifth-highest quarterback rating (106.5).
Not accounting for StatHero's bonuses for longer touchdowns, Tannehill finished the season seventh in scoring at the position, per FantasyPros. He's also the seventh-most expensive quarterback on the Super Wild Card Weekend slate.
StatHero is accounting for a tough matchup against the Baltimore Ravens, who concluded the 2020 season sixth in passing defense. But they padded those numbers against the Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Giants and Cincinnati Bengals in their final three games.
When these two teams met in Week 11, Tannehill went 22-of-31 for 259 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in a 30-24 overtime win. Vegas anticipates a similar point tally; DraftKings Sportsbook gives this matchup the weekend's highest over-under line at 54.5.
As 3.5-point home underdogs, the Titans likely won't be able to call Henry's number all day.
Tannehill accounted for at least two touchdowns in all but two games. He's a reliable and affordable choice for anyone unable to budget Lamar Jackson ($10,700) or Josh Allen ($11,500) into their lineup.
RB: J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens ($6,400)
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StatHero also selected J.K. Dobbins in each of its lineups. It's easy to see why.
Just like Taylor, the rookie running back raced down the finish line after a tumultuous start. The No. 55 pick had gone eight straight games without a touchdown before crossing the pylon in each of his final six games played. After assuming an unsteady workload for most of 2020, he parlayed 77 carries into 495 yards from Week 11 onward.
That sample size started against the Titans, against whom Dobbins put up 85 total yards and a score. Following that game, Tennessee has experienced defensive woes by allowing 174 points over its final six contests.
Dobbins has carved out a meaningful role for the NFL's top-rated rushing attack, and he's making the most of his opportunities with 6.0 yards per carry. He has a better outlook than David Montgomery, Ronald Jones II or Antonio Gibson, who all cost $7,000 or more.
Don't let the house ride Dobbins to victory. Daring gamers truly confident in the neophyte could even insert him into the MVP position.
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WR: D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks ($5,300)
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The Los Angeles Rams have the NFL's best passing defense. They ended the 2020 campaign atop the leaderboard in passing yards (190.7), touchdowns (17) and yards per attempt (6.2) allowed.
After cooking up a steamy passing offense early in the season, the Seattle Seahawks regressed sharply over the final weeks. Russell Wilson went from averaging 317.6 passing yards through the first eight games to 208.9 in the final eight.
Fading D.K. Metcalf at full cost would be an easy decision. StatHero, however, is practically daring everyone to play him at $5,300.
Sixteen wide receivers are more expensive than the Pro Bowler, who registered the seventh-most receiving yards (1,303) this season.
While the Rams stymied him to a combined eight catches for 87 yards in two regular-season encounters, there's no denying Metcalf's upside. He averaged 15.7 yards per catch during the season with five 100-yard games and five receptions of 40 yards or more.
Even with the deck stacked against him, Metcalf is far too cheap for an elite player with a superb quarterback by his side.
TE: Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears ($3,700)
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Playing Cole Kmet did not work in Week 16, as he posted just two receptions while Jimmy Graham deposited two touchdowns. The rookie's arrow nevertheless remains pointed upward heading into the postseason.
Kmet took a back seat for most of his inaugural year before playing 70 percent of the Chicago Bears' snaps in Week 10, according to Pro Football Reference. He has since seen the field for 78 percent or more of the offense's plays every week.
The Notre Dame alum isn't just blocking the entire time, either. Kmet drew 30 targets over the final five games, leading to a season-high seven catches in last Sunday's season-finale against the Green Bay Packers.
Because StatHero awards 1.5 points per reception for tight ends, Kmet can provide a reasonable return on his paltry $3,700 price with four or five catches. Eventually, however, seeing more targets and snaps than Graham should lead to better red-zone fortune.
Then again, Graham is an even cheaper option ($3,000) as a pure touchdown-or-bust play. Since Mark Andrews ($7,000) and Logan Thomas ($6,800) each cost a pretty penny, it behooves players to pay down at the traditionally volatile position.
Flex: RB Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans ($7,900)
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Hey, what do you know? Playing Kmet clears up enough cap space to round out the lineup with King Henry.
Those anticipating another 200-yard outburst should stamp the newest 2,000-yard rusher as their MVP. This placement acknowledges a probable letdown from those sky-high hopes while also recognizing his incredible ability.
Henry won't have a groundbreaking fantasy performance if Tennessee gets eliminated. He posted 460 total yards and two touchdowns in five losses, and Baltimore boasts the eighth-ranked rushing defense.
Why use him at all? The money is there, and upgrading Cole Kmet to Jared Cook ($4,700) or Rob Gronkowski ($4,600) still doesn't leave the $7,400 required for Nick Chubb or Allen Robinson II.
A bad day for Henry, who amassed 378 carries this season, could still yield 75 yards. StatHero wouldn't appreciate that effort from its MVP even if he adds a touchdown, but it won't hurt much from the flex spot.
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