College Football Championship 2021: OSU vs. Alabama Odds, Projected Winner
The odds for 2021 College Football Playoff National Championship give us two things we do not typically see.
The first is the Alabama Crimson Tide as a single-digit favorite and the other is an over/under set at 75.5 points.
The projected total for Monday's contest opened at 76, which is an unusually high number for a college football title game in any era.
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Alabama enters Hard Rock Stadium with the more dominant set of performances this season. While it is capable of pulling off another double-digit victory, the spread may be right on point for its matchup with an offense that came alive in the Sugar Bowl.
National Championship Odds
Spread: Alabama (-8.5)
Over/Under: 75.5
Money Line: Alabama (-286; bet $286 to win $100); Ohio State (+220; bet $100 to win $220)
Projected Winner
Alabama 35, Ohio State 30
The spread is moving in Alabama's favor, as it jumped from 7.5 to 8.5 on Tuesday.
That number is still low compared to the spreads posted in the Crimson Tide's favor for most of the season. Alabama was a 19.5-point favorite over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the Rose Bowl and was favored by 20 or more points for the six games leading up to the SEC Championship Game.
Alabama has proved throughout the season it is more than capable of blowing out even the toughest opponents on its schedule. In five games against Top 25 opposition, it has an average margin of victory of 19.4 points. The only ranked foe to finish within 10 points of the Tide was Florida.
Alabama did not cover its Rose Bowl spread due to a late Notre Dame touchdown, but it was in total control of the contest from the start. The game felt more like a 35-point blowout than a 31-14 victory.
The Crimson Tide may not experience the same level of control Monday since Ohio State is coming off its best outing of the season.
In two playoff games in the last two seasons, the Buckeyes have proved they belong among the nation's elite programs. They lost to Clemson by six points in last season's semifinal and walloped the ACC champion in the Sugar Bowl on New Year's Day.
If Justin Fields plays close to the six-touchdown level he did at the Sugar Bowl, Ohio State should have an opportunity to win the game in the fourth quarter.
Ryan Day's team also possesses a dominant feature running back in Trey Sermon. Alabama has not faced many of those in its meetings with Top 25 teams. Florida lacked a consistent running game and Notre Dame's Kyren Williams is a year or two away from being one of the top running backs in the country.
Sermon has 524 rushing yards in his last two games, and if Ohio State feeds him on a regular basis, the Buckeyes could control the clock while taking some pressure off Fields to do everything himself.
Even if both offenses are clicking on Monday, there is still a chance the number of points flies under the projected total.
According to ESPN's David Bearman, there have only been two national championship games since 1998 that have gone over 76 points.
Both teams are capable of putting up over 40 points, but all it takes is one or two stops in each half to put the under well in play.
Two of Ohio State's last four games featured a total of 77 points, but one of those results was caused by a late surge from the Indiana Hoosiers. If the Buckeyes are tighter on defense, they should avoid a landslide of points in the final two quarters.
Five of Alabama's last six games have gone under the projected national championship total. Only the SEC Championship Game produced a score that would have cleared Monday's over.
With that in mind, the under feels like the safest bet for the CFP National Championship. If Ohio State plays as it did on New Year's Day, taking it to cover could be a confident wager as well.
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.
Statistics obtained from ESPN.com.
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