College Football Playoff Championship 2020: Odds and Predictions for Matchups
Against all odds, a season that almost never got its start is nearing its close.
The College Football Playoff is upon us, with the usual suspects set to compete for a national title. After a brief hiatus a year ago, Alabama is back and the prohibitive favorite (-167 to win it all, according to DraftKings). Clemson, too, is back for its sixth appearance in seven years. Ohio State and Notre Dame have also made the playoff multiple times (four and two appearances, respectively).
On the surface, there doesn’t appear to be much mystery here. After lots of consternation over who was deserving of the fourth slot, the Crimson Tide are an overwhelming favorite to top the Fighting Irish. After uncertainty over the Buckeyes' shortened schedule, they face an uphill battle against another loaded Tigers team. All signs point to Clemson/Alabama part four.
Could one of the two underdogs mix that up? We'll just have to wait and see.
Rose Bowl
1 of 3
Odds
No. 1 Alabama v. No. 4 Notre Dame
Alabama: (-19.5), (-1250 money line)
Notre Dame: (+19.5), (+600 money line)
The pick
This is one of those lines that you'd assume you're more apt to see on an early-season nonconference game; alas, Vegas has little faith in the Fighting Irish here. It's hard to blame them. Notre Dame is coming off a 34-10 shellacking against full-strength Clemson in the ACC title game. Alabama comes in off a shootout 52-46 win over Florida in the SEC title game.
The Alabama offense lost four first-round picks off its offense from a year ago—then star wideout Jaylen Waddle went down a season-ending ankle injury in October. And yet none of it seems to matter. The Crimson Tide are an offensive juggernaut, scoring 49.7 points per game and averaging 7.83 yards per play, both of which are closely aligned with their offense a year ago (47.2 points per game, 7.9 yards per play). Mac Jones is putting together a Heisman-worthy season, with 32 touchdowns to four interceptions. So is his main target, DeVonta Smith, who's tallied over 1,500 yards and 17 touchdowns.
Notre Dame simply doesn't have the firepower to hang here. And while those 19.5 points may seem daunting on the page, consider this: The last four Nos. 1 v. 4 matchups in the College Football Playoff have been decided by an average of 20.8 points. This one won't be close. Don't let the number scare you off.
Sugar Bowl
2 of 3
Odds
No. 2 Clemson v. No. 3 Ohio State
Clemson: (-7.5), (-286 money line)
Ohio State: (+7.5), (+210 money line)
The pick
This game doesn't feature nearly the same talent disparity we'll see in Alabama/Notre Dame. There will be 5-star athletes and future NFL studs flying around on both sides of the ball. That starts at quarterback, where this game might just feature the No. 1 and No. 2 picks in the upcoming draft, with Clemson's Trevor Lawrence and Ohio State's Justin Fields. It's also a rematch of last year's Fiesta Bowl instant classic, in which Lawrence and the Tigers clawed back to beat the Buckeyes 29-23.
The key variables here are health and availability. Speculation swirled in the lead-up to Ohio State's Big Ten title game about a COVID-19 outbreak potentially jeopardizing the game. The Buckeyes played Northwestern without 22 players, including top wideout Chris Olave and leading tackler Baron Browning—and it showed. Ohio State struggled but ultimately prevailed 22-10. The Big Ten quickly amended its policy requiring players to sit out 21 days following their last positive test, trimming that margin to 17 days. Still, we don't yet know what Ohio State's roster will look like for this one, making a pick tough to nail down.
Even at full health, though, Clemson is the superior team. And the variability and infrequency of Ohio State's schedule might set the stage for a decisive margin here. I'd take Clemson, even with the tantalizing 7.5 points sitting there.
Championship Game
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Alabama v. Clemson
This Alabama team is unequivocally the best in College football this year. The Crimson Tide have been the most consistent. They're been the most dominant.
Still, this wouldn't be the first time a special quarterback from Clemson put together a performance that toppled the Crimson Tide in the Championship game—it wouldn't even be the first time Trevor Lawrence himself has done so.
I'll still err on the side of Nick Saban and Alabama, who have one of the best offenses in modern college football history. But if this is the matchup, nobody will be surprised by the kind of instant classic we've come to expect from the two titans of college football.
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