Notre Dame or Texas A&M: Who Should Be in the College Football Playoff?
After all of that—the wins, the losses, the postponements, the cancellations and the unpredictability that was the 2020 regular season—the College Football Playoff committee has essentially been left with a single decision.
Sure, there's also seeding to think about. This group now has to determine the ranking of the four teams deemed worthy of the playoff, and there's potentially both intrigue and drama surrounding what it ultimately decides.
But the primary decision, barring goofiness, boils down to one simple question.
Notre Dame or Texas A&M?
The outcome, which will be announced on Sunday, will come quickly. The result will douse social media and message boards in gasoline, sparking impassioned opinions from both fanbases regarding the way their team is treated.
Before we discuss each scenario, here's where we stand.
Alabama is in the playoff. That's that. Clemson, after clobbering Notre Dame 34-10 in the ACC Championship Game, is in the playoff. (We'll get to that outcome and what it means momentarily.)
Ohio State, which struggled early against Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship, is in. This, of course, will likely spark its own stream of displeasure, although the Buckeyes' inclusion feels pretty definitive.
And so, we're left with that one question again: Notre Dame or Texas A&M?
Let's explore.
The Case for Texas A&M (8-1)
The Aggies closed out their year with seven consecutive victories. Only their win against Florida was decided by less than 10 points.
That conquest over the Gators is unquestionably the gem on the Aggies' resume. The 41-38 victory seemed to catapult this team forward, and the improvement was noticeable in a variety of areas week over week.
The offensive line and defense have both really grown, and while A&M doesn't necessarily overwhelm teams in points and offense the way Alabama does, the performances still manage to feel somewhat dominant.
Texas A&M feels like it's rounding into form, which the committee seems to appreciate and reward. And even the final effort on Saturday, a dominant 34-13 road win against Tennessee, leaves little doubt about the quality of the team.
The Case Against Texas A&M
Two results really jump out, although one will certainly have a much larger impact on the decision than the other. A&M's frankly bizarre 17-12 Week 1 win over Vanderbilt remains one of the more perplexing scores in the sport this season.
The bigger outcome, however, came the following week. The Aggies' lone loss of the season was a 52-24 blowout against Alabama. The good news is that it came against the best team in college football. The bad news is the 28-point deficit, which is another resume trait the committee tends to really zero in on.
If we're being nitpicky—and that's the point of the exercise—a few other elements jump out. A&M didn't win its conference. And while the Aggies do benefit from playing in the SEC, the schedule wasn't exactly one of the nation's most daunting. A&M beat one ranked team and only two teams with a winning record.
The Case for Notre Dame (10-1)
Ten wins.
Not many teams can say that in 2020. Given the postponements and cancellations, Notre Dame managed to deliver something that resembles a normal schedule. And not only did it play a normal schedule, but it was also largely dominant. All but two wins this year were by double digits.
The biggest win? The team that also delivered the Irish's only loss. Beating Clemson 47-40 earlier in the year, even if the Tigers were without quarterback Trevor Lawrence, is a massive resume boost. And in some respects, it's the perfect counter to its only loss.
Notre Dame's second-best win—a road victory over North Carolina—is also a decent boost given the way the Tar Heels closed out their season with an impressive 62-26 win over Miami.
The Case Against Notre Dame
The final impression is enormous. A computer program is not deciding the playoff teams; a collection of human beings who naturally have a recency bias will make this decision.
As such, losing the last game this group sees is obviously suboptimal. Perhaps the best news in the bad is that Notre Dame didn't lose as badly as it could have. The 34-10 outcome had the look of a much more lopsided loss near halftime.
It was still a dominant Clemson victory. But given the decision being made, it wasn't as bad as it felt like it was going to be. Every bit counts.
The outcomes have not always felt dominant. Notre Dame had its own Vanderbilt-like letdown against Louisville earlier in the year.
Like A&M, Notre Dame finishes its year without a conference championship. The Irish, of course, became a temporary full-time member of the ACC in 2020 because of the pandemic, which is why it was given a chance to win a title. The absence of a title simplifies the conversation: one resume vs. the other.
The Verdict
Given how little disagreement there has been surrounding playoff decisions in the past, a quality debate is actually refreshing for those without a horse in the race. For Texas A&M and Notre Dame, it's quite the opposite.
While the committee has shown to be inconsistent—and frankly, that might be kind—Notre Dame will earn the nod on Sunday.
Despite the freshness of the loss, the Irish still have the better overall resume. Four wins over teams with a winning record versus two for A&M. Two wins over ranked teams versus one. Notre Dame also has played more games, which is a strange resume item in a strange year.
It's not an easy decision. The outcome will not be met with applause, but rather strong, disapproving reactions regardless of how the committee handles what suddenly feels like a razor-thin debate.
But Notre Dame's overall campaign will be rewarded. And then let the fireworks fly.
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