College Football Playoff Notebook: Good, Maybe and Bad Scenarios for Contenders

Following a quiet weekend among the highest-ranked teams, the third edition of the College Football Playoff rankings shows no significant changes.

If the season ended today, the four CFP qualifiers would be Alabama, Notre Dame, Clemson and Ohio State. But four others—Texas A&M, Florida, Cincinnati and suddenly Iowa State—are in position to reach the CFP if certain results happen. Some of those outcomes are in their control, but most of them are not.

And there isn't much time remaining. They're heading into the final week of the regular season, and conference championship week will follow.

Whether your favorite team is still in the CFP race, you've latched onto a program to finish 2020 or you're curious about hypotheticals, we have your rooting interests in one place.

No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide

Optimal path: Win twice. Alabama heads to Arkansas this Saturday before taking on Florida in the SEC Championship Game. Win both, and the Crimson Tide will be No. 1 in the final rankings.

Possible route: Split the next two, in either order. Yes, it would be flat-out stunning if Arkansas pulled an upset, but Alabama could redeem itself by toppling Florida for the SEC title. Additionally, the Tide have a strong playoff argument even if they lose to Florida because of their wins over Georgia and Texas A&M.

Scenario to avoid: Two losses. Drop to 9-2 without an SEC crown, and Alabama would likely be eliminated.

No. 2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Optimal path: Win the rematch with Clemson. Do that, and the Irish will be a perfect 11-0 with two victories over Clemson, leaving no question about the ACC's premier team.

Possible route: Lose in the ACC Championship Game, but Alabama beats Florida for the SEC title. At that point, a 10-1 Notre Dame is behind Alabama, Florida and perhaps Ohio State. While the Irish could fall behind Texas A&M and Cincinnati, victories over Clemson and North Carolina make it unlikely. 

Scenario to avoid: Fall to Clemson—worse yet, in a blowout or lopsided game—while Florida clips the Tide and Ohio State wins the Big Ten championship. Notre Dame could make it over Ohio State, but that's no sure thing. Clemson and Florida would be locks, and Alabama likely has the head-to-head edge over ND.

No. 3 Clemson Tigers

Ken Ruinard/Associated Press

Optimal path: Knock off Notre Dame, and the Tigers have a top-two seed. Alabama will be No. 1 if it remains undefeated, but a Clemson vs. Florida comparison may lean to Clemson since Trevor Lawrence didn't play in the loss at Notre Dame. Either way, an ACC-winning Clemson is no worse than No. 2.

Possible route: Lose to the Irish, but Alabama takes the SEC, Ohio State doesn't win the Big Ten, Cincinnati falls to Tulsa and the committee gives a Christmas present. Clemson would have two losses to Notre Dame, but the panel might provide more grace for an earlier Lawrence-less letdown than A&M's 28-point loss to Alabama or say 9-2 is better than Ohio State's 6-1. Clemson shouldn't want to test it, though.

Scenario to avoid: The loss, really. The above scenario is enough of a stretch. The worst-case outcome is Notre Dame wins, Florida beats Alabama and both Ohio State and Cincinnati are undefeated league champions. Clemson would have no shot in that case.

No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes

Optimal path: You guessed it, win. Whether that includes a replacement for Michigan this weekend and Northwestern in the Big Ten championship, only the title game or something else, win. The committee has showed it views the Buckeyes as a superior team to Texas A&M and Cincinnati. Realistically, only a loss changes it.

Possible route: Is there a one-loss scenario that has Ohio State sneaking in? Northwestern would have a similar record and the head-to-head victory, but we aren't talking about the Wildcats anymore.

Scenario to avoid: Losing. Just not helpful.

No. 5 Texas A&M Aggies

Optimal path: Alabama and Notre Dame win their respective league titles. Texas A&M wants a two-loss Clemson, a two-loss Florida and both Ohio State and Cincinnati to lose a game. The Aggies could win this battle of attrition.

Possible route: The above scenario, but either Clemson or Florida—not both—win a conference crown. Texas A&M should jump a one-loss Ohio State but would trail Alabama based on the head-to-head result. The issue is that both Iowa State and Cincinnati have a chance to surge past the Aggies, too.

Scenarios to avoid: Both Clemson and Florida win a league championship, or one does and Ohio State claims the Big Ten. Texas A&M cannot win a comparison with Alabama, and Notre Dame probably has the advantage, too. For the Aggies, the fewer contenders, the better.

No. 6 Florida Gators

John Raoux/Associated Press

Optimal path: Just like Alabama, win twice. If the Gators are 10-1 and champions of the SEC, they're in. Most likely, they'd secure a top-two seed behind Notre Dame or Clemson.

Possible route: Now that Texas A&M is unable to play Ole Miss this weekend, Florida has no backup plan. With two losses, the head-to-head letdown against the Aggies is a dagger.

Scenarios to avoid: Losing to LSU or Alabama.

No. 7 Iowa State Cyclones

Optimal path: Uh. Hmm. Why is Iowa State here? The Cyclones lost to Louisiana and Oklahoma State, yet they're ranked higher than Cincinnati. Not my call, so let's figure it out. Iowa State needs an Alabama win and a Notre Dame win. If the Cyclones beat Oklahoma for the Big 12 title, that's another quality win. It would definitely be enough to stay ahead of Cincinnati and likely leap Texas A&M.

Possible route: No other possibility. Absolutely nothing against the program; this is simply a question for the selection committee: Why is Iowa State here?

Scenario to avoid: Seriously, why?

No. 8 Cincinnati Bearcats

Optimal path: Chaos! For some reason, the Bearcats fell in the rankings? Anyway, it starts with a victory over Tulsa in the AAC championship game. Then, Alabama and Notre Dame hand a second loss to Florida and Clemson, respectively. And if Ohio State loses, the mental gymnastics required to keep an undefeated Cincinnati out of the Top Four would be incredible. But the Bearcats suddenly need to worry about getting passed by a Big 12 winner, too.

Possible route: Win the AAC crown, plus wins for Alabama, Notre Dame and Ohio State. The committee might pick an undefeated Cincinnati over one-loss Texas A&M. That should happen, but it isn't something we can guarantee. And since Iowa State is now ahead of the Bearcats, it's looking improbable.

Scenarios to avoid: For one, losing. But there are several more bad options. Clemson wins the ACC and Ohio State wins the Big Ten. Florida wins the SEC and Ohio State wins the Big Ten. Clemson and Florida win their respective leagues. Any of those three are bad news for the Bearcats, who theoretically could win the AAC but trail Texas A&M in the final ranking. That'd be awful, but it's possible.

Follow Bleacher Report CFB Writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.