NBA Free Agency 2020: Bold Predictions for Fred VanVleet, Jerami Grant and More
A cloud of uncertainty surrounds the upcoming NBA season, but droplets of news are beginning to rain down. While we wait to find out if James Harden ends up leaving Houston, draft, trade and free-agent news should quickly start emerging.
Among the latter, Fred VanVleet and Jerami Grant are two of this year's most intriguing free agents. Both are pivotal to their organizations and widely expected to re-sign, but neither is certain to do so. Past them, the class includes veteran point guards Goran Dragic and Rajon Rondo, who should have suitors if they hit the open market.
Although Dragic feels like a comfortable bet to stay in Miami, Rondo could change teams without changing address. Here, we analyze how three of the more interesting free-agent decisions could play out.
Fred VanVleet
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While the Toronto Raptors are expected to retain Fred VanVleet's services, there are a few teams that have a need at guard and the money to pull him away. With a championship under his belt and coming off a contract that earned him an average annual salary of $9 million, FVV appears ready to prioritize his bank account, and that may not work in Toronto's favor.
"I'm trying to get paid, man," he recently said on JJ Redick's podcast, The Old Man and the Three. "I'm not shy about that. … I won a championship and now it's time to cash out."
Since, like a few other teams, the Raptors seem set on ensuring an offer substantial enough to pique Giannis Antetokounmpo's interest in 2021, they may not have the money needed to keep VanVleet, and the New York Knicks may be the big winners of the situation.
While the Atlanta Hawks and Charlotte Hornets can each make competitive offers for the 26-year-old guard, neither brandishes the level of media exposure guaranteed by New York's market. The Knicks, in desperate need of shooting and playmaking, can sell FVV on a prominent role, revamped team culture and, most importantly, a greater chance at sponsorship opportunities on top of his salary.
Prediction: Fred VanVleet signs with the New York Knicks
Jerami Grant
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Some NBA players are universal fits. Jerami Grant is one such player. Like the highly coveted Jrue Holiday and Robert Covington, Grant is talented on both sides of the court, selflessly willing to do the small things and, in today's NBA, built for any team's system.
Far from his 2014 relegation to highlight dunks and blocks as a rookie in Philadelphia, Grant developed game sense and a three ball, evolving into one of the Denver Nuggets' most critical contributors during a Wester Conference Finals run. As a rookie, he shot 31.4 percent on 2.4 attempted threes per game and 59.1 percent from the line. This past season, he hit 38.9 percent on 3.5 attempted threes and 75 percent from the line.
Given that development into the consummate modern forward, no one was surprised when Yahoo's Chris Haynes reported that Grant would be turning down his $9.3 million player option for 2020-21. Since the Nuggets have Grant's Bird Rights, they can afford to pay him more than most others can.
Coupling that money with the fond recent memories of a playoff push, Denver is therefore the most likely team to retain Grant's services. But the Hawks are an intriguing dark horse. Atlanta wants to be a competitive playoff team and the organization may not be sure that John Collins is worth the money he'll earn on the open market when he becomes an unrestricted free agent, hence early speculation that Onyeka Okongwu is in play for a draft selection. Those mocks have changed given new information about an Okongwu injury, as reported by ESPN, but the consideration suggest Atlanta may be unsure about their long-term future at the position.
The Hawks can offer Grant money in that $15 million range and a role that isn't crowded by the ball-dominant likes of Michael Porter Jr. or Paul Millsap. Although the 26-year-old forward could easily end up back with Denver, Atlanta should present a tantalizing opportunity to ascend.
Prediction: Jerami Grant signs with the Atlanta Hawks
Rajon Rondo
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Following Rajon Rondo's expected decline of his $2.6 million player option, the Los Angeles Lakers have seemingly replaced him with Dennis Schroder, according to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski.
With Rondo likely to be looking for a new team, ESPN's Frank Isola reports that Rondo could receive an offer for about $15 million over two years from the Hawks but added the 34-year-old point remains interested in the Clippers. Although it would mean a pay cut compared to his Hawks salary, Rondo could be enticed to play for another championship with the added bonus of a chance to prove himself against the Lakers in the playoffs.
It would be one of the most Rajon Rondo moves ever: turning down a bigger pay day to play petty and join your team's biggest rival; but there are other compelling reasons for him to do so. Remaining in L.A. also provides an easy opportunity for Rondo to receive a pay bump and a chance at title contention without hiring movers. Still, the petty angle remains a juicy one to kick around for one of the NBA's most notoriously competitive players (especially when the Connect Four boards come out).
The Clips collapsed in this year's postseason, despite the roster's talent, and their lack of leadership was as pivotal as their lack of playmaking. Rondo fills both those voids and, having shot a surprising 40 percent from three in this year's playoffs, could simply show the Clips that you can indeed elevate your play when it matters most.
Prediction: Rajon Rondo signs with the Los Angeles Clippers
