Predicting NBA's Biggest 2020 Draft Busts

Projecting a draft bust means predicting disappointing results from a prospect relative to where he's taken. 

The following five prospects shouldn't have trouble cracking NBA rotations, but for top-five guys and potential lottery picks, the bar is higher. And these players could have a tough time meeting lofty expectations given their current weaknesses and chances of making big enough improvements.

Challenging fits with the team that drafts them could only make it harder to maximize potential. If these prospects land in tough situations, they could have trouble producing the results many will be hoping for.

Aaron Nesmith (Vanderbilt, SF, Sophomore)

Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

It sounds like a team in the late-lottery range is going to draft Aaron Nesmith. While shooting is considered a premium skill, the back half of the lottery seems too early to bet on a 14-game sample size of hot three-point numbers given his freshman stats and how limited he is elsewhere.

Nesmith shot an astounding 52.2 percent from three this season, an unsustainable number for an entire year, particularly considering he shot just 33.7 percent in 2018-19. Vanderbilt also lost to Richmond, Tulsa, Liberty, Loyola (IL), SMU and Auburn in the 14 games the offense featured Nesmith. 

Aside from shooting, he offers no creativity, playmaking or passing, totaling 13 assists in 500 minutes, and he ranked in the 6th percentile as a pick-and-roll ball-handler. The only guards or forwards on record to average at least 14 field-goal attempts and have an assist percentage as low as Nesmith's 6.9 percent: Shabazz Muhammad and JaJuan Johnson.

Nesmith's jump shot is still a draw, but it doesn't even work well off the dribble (13-of-37).

He should be a useful catch-and-shoot player like Doug McDermott, but lottery teams expecting a volume scorer or difference-making shooter may want to think twice. 

Anthony Edwards (Georgia, SG, Freshman)

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

"Fool's gold." 

That's how one scout for a lottery team referred to Anthony Edwards. 

Going top three or potentially No. 1 comes with extreme expectations, and Edwards won't be able to meet them with stats alone. There is no doubting his potential to continue scoring at the NBA level, but myself and some others are skeptical of his ability to convert talent and skill into efficient, winning basketball. 

If he does go first to the Minnesota Timberwolves, he'd have the lowest box plus-minus (5.5) of any No. 1 pick since the stat was recorded, dating back over a decade. Georgia finished 13th of 14 teams in the SEC with Edwards shooting 40.2 percent from the floor and 29.4 percent from three and averaging 2.8 assists to 2.7 turnovers.

His shot-creation and shot-making skills can be a gift and a curse, and Edwards hasn't shown a good feel for optimizing them. He struggles to resist taking hero jumpers, many of which come after dribbling for lengthy stretches as teammates watch. Despite 6'5", 225-pound size and explosiveness, he wound up taking 147 pull-ups (28.6 percent FG) to 97 attempts around the basket.

Edwards also didn't use his tremendous defensive tools enough, too frequently giving up early on plays.

Talent alone won't lead to routine All-Star appearances, just like it hasn't for Andrew Wiggins. I have concerns about whether Edwards is wired to effectively apply it.

Jaden McDaniels (Washington, SF/PF, Freshman)

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

Teams like the idea of Jaden McDaniels, who is essentially a 6'9" guard. But can he realistically execute like one at the NBA level?

Despite power forward size and an advanced skill package, he shot just 40.5 percent from the floor at Washington. He registered a ridiculous 20.4 turnover percentage, finishing with 100 turnovers to 65 assists. 

While he's capable of pulling off flashy dribble moves into pull-up and step-back jumpers, he isn't sharp enough to lean on them for scoring, particularly if he's going to be defended by NBA wings and forwards. I'm not buying McDaniels' isolation game translating to the point where teams can feature him against starting lineups.

The biggest draw to McDaniels is his potential to work from the 4 as a stretch-big shooter who can attack closeouts. But aside from the shot-making, he doesn't appear to offer much in the passing, rebounding or defense departments, even if he can make the occasional highlight-reel block.

Despite possessing lottery-caliber talent and skill, there are too many questions about his projected efficiency and ability to stay consistently engaged. 

James Wiseman (Memphis, C, Freshman)

Craig Mitchelldyer/Associated Press

"Buyer beware," one NBA executive said when slapping a caution label on James Wiseman. 

Taking him in the top three, where he seems highly likely to go, means either betting on the flashes of scoring versatility to occur regularly or his defense translating to Rudy Gobert-like rim protection. 

While I expect an inside finishing presence and active shot-blocker, I can't picture an option teams run the offense through. He's never shown great awareness in terms of knowing when to take the highlight shot, nor has he ever proved to be efficient at making them. And he offers little as a passer (one total assist in three games at Memphis). 

Unless he becomes a consistent shooter, it's tough to project a high-volume scorer. Though he does possess enticing defensive potential around the basket, he's limited to guarding only centers and the paint. 

He's the opposite of Bam Adebayo and Nikola Jokic, today's fastest-rising 5s. Wiseman has been slotted in the No. 7-10 range on my board throughout the year, but the Minnesota Timberwolves, Golden State Warriors or Charlotte Hornets could be setting themselves up for disappointment by drafting him in the top three.

RJ Hampton (New Zealand Breakers, SG, 2001)

Rick Rycroft/Associated Press

It's worth noting that if RJ Hampton slips into the late teens or 20s, the "bust" bar lowers and expectations drop. But I'd stay away with a lottery pick, which a team may use to draft the explosive combo guard who spent the season in the NBL.

While it's understandable to see upside tied to his athleticism and backcourt versatility, it's also worth worrying about what skills teams can bank on carrying over. 

He scores by attacking and making set shots, but he isn't a high-level creator or shooter. He's a capable setup passer off penetration, but he isn't a natural facilitator. 

Is he sharp enough off the dribble in the half court to be used as a primary initiator? And will he be threatening enough shooting off spot-ups and screens from the wings and corners? 

There has been buzz about Hampton fixing his shot mechanics during the quarantine, and given the extra time prospects have had to prepare, it's possible he's made adjustments. One of the biggest scouting challenges for a postponed draft during the pandemic is assessing how much stock to put into workout videos (of supposed improved shooting) after going months without seeing someone like Hampton in any live action.

Some teams have still pushed him down the board in the 20s or 30s, with one even questioning his self-awareness. 

It's more realistic to picture a spark off the bench than a star, the way shooting coach Mike Miller and Hampton himself suggest he'll be. He enters bust watch for me if a team reaches too high and expects a player it can feature as a top option.

Stats courtesy of Synergy Sports and Sports Reference.