Buying or Selling Lakers' Biggest Problems vs. Miami Heat in NBA Finals

Even with Goran Dragic out and Bam Adebayo playing with a strained neck, the Miami Heat showed once again there is no quit in them with a 111-108 victory over the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 5 of the NBA Finals on Friday night.

After posting the third 40-point triple-double in Finals history in Game 3, Jimmy Butler went for 35 points, 12 rebounds, 11 assists and five steals in Game 5. He's the personification of the grit that has become synonymous with Heat culture, which has been on vivid display in Orlando.

His ridiculous performances, along with timely contributions from Adebayo, Duncan Robinson, Tyler Herro and others, have also put L.A.'s vulnerabilities on display.

There aren't many. The Lakers have an all-time great duo and finished first in the West for a reason. But after two losses, cause for concern is creeping up.

Which apparent weaknesses are for real, and which aren't? Let's play the time-old game of "Buy or Sell."

The Supporting Cast Isn't Good Enough

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

In Game 5, each Laker not named Anthony Davis or LeBron James shot worse than 50 percent from the field. The seven who made it onto the floor combined to shoot 14-of-46 (30.4 percent) and commit nine of the team's 15 turnovers. Kyle Kuzma was minus-17 in 22 minutes.

On Friday, it was painfully clear that AD and LeBron's supporting cast could be better. And that's an issue that has surfaced plenty throughout the 2019-20 campaign.

In the regular season, seven of the Lakers' top 12 in minutes played were at a below-average level, according to box plus/minus. Four of those seven were below replacement level (for context's sake, Tony Snell is a career replacement-level player).

And though the supporting cast has had its moments throughout the playoffs, duds like Game 5 shouldn't be surprising.

Even still, L.A. is up 3-2 and had a lead in the waning seconds Friday. The other Lakers don't have to be great. They just have to have those occasional moments. That's the luxury of having two of the top 5-10 players in the NBA.

LeBron and AD combined for 68 points on 36 field-goal attempts in the loss. Each had three steals and double-figure rebounds. LeBron had seven dimes, while Davis picked up three blocks.

As good as Butler is defensively, he can't stop LeBron on the perimeter, especially if his jumper is locked in. With Butler and other Heat players often going under on ball screens, LeBron finished 6-of-9 from three.

If Miami chooses to play the ball-handler more aggressively, that gives Davis more time inside. And he doesn't need much to deal damage.

Again, all the supporting cast has to do is defend and supplement those actions. If they provide just a hint more than they did Friday, which they can, the Lakers are the 2020 champions.

Verdict: Sell

Turnovers Are Their Undoing

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

Butler's all-time great individual performance was obviously the biggest reason Miami won Game 3, but L.A.'s 19 turnovers (eight from LeBron) played a part.

"You just can't turn the ball over versus that team," LeBron said after the Lakers' first loss of the series, "and I take full responsibility for that."

Miami scored nearly a fifth of its points that night off turnovers, and it was right around that same percentage in Game 5, even though the Lakers cut their giveaways down to 15.

Against an offense that can get as hot as the Heat's (113.3 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs), gifting possessions is a recipe for disaster.

But an L.A. disaster in this series can look like Game 5, when the Lakers trailed most of the way and still had a chance to win. And for the series, they're still averaging fewer turnovers than they did in the regular season.

If things go completely off the rails as they did in Game 3 again, maybe we turn up the alarm on this one. But it's tough to imagine that happening in each of the next two games.

Verdict: Sell

They Can't Stop Jimmy Butler

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

Through his first five NBA Finals games, Jimmy Butler is averaging 29.0 points, 10.2 assists, 8.6 rebounds, 2.6 steals and 0.8 blocks.

His average game score ("...a rough measure of a player's productivity for a single game") is 30.7. That would rank, well, first for a single Finals in the complete box-score era (since 1983-84).

Yes, he's currently ahead of Shaquille O'Neal's absurd 2000 Finals against the Indiana Pacers, Kevin Durant's 2017 against LeBron's Cleveland Cavaliers and any series from LeBron himself.

It isn't an overstatement to say Butler is having one of the greatest series performances in league history. And he's doing it in a way that defies one major convention of modern basketball.

Butler has attempted just 11 threes in this series. In his 40-point masterpiece in Game 3, he was 0-of-0 from deep. His shot chart for the Finals looks an awful lot like something out of the '80s or '90s.

Butler is 17-of-28 in the restricted area, 11-of-20 from the mid-range and 6-of-10 on fadeaway twos. Squint real hard and it almost looks like the second coming of MJ out there against LeBron and the Lakers. And no matter who they throw at him, Butler won't get rattled.

He's attacking size (they've had 6'10" Anthony Davis as his primary defender for long stretches) and shooting over guards and wings. And as has been the case all season with Miami, when a decent look isn't available, Butler is a master at drawing shooting fouls or finding the open man.

Simply put, the Lakers can't stop Butler. Unfortunately for the Heat, that might not be enough.

Verdict: Buy

Anthony Davis Isn't 100 Percent

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

On more than one occasion during Game 5, AD was seen limping around the floor. In the first half, he left the game for a bit with an apparent non-contact injury that had "Achilles" trending on Twitter.

Davis' survival has become a sub-theme of the 2020 Finals. And if any of these injuries actually keep AD off the floor for an extended period, the Lakers might be in trouble.

For the series, L.A. is a team-best plus-31 with Davis on the floor and a team-worst minus-11 when he's off.

When he isn't in the game, the team's defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) falls apart, and its rebounding percentage falls off a cliff.

If his nagging right heel contusion costs him a few more minutes in Game 6 (and Game 7, if necessary), those may well be the stretches that cost the Lakers the series.

Despite the limping and trips to the bench, though, these issues haven't led to a decrease in playing time. LeBron is the only Laker with more minutes, and he only has the lead by one in that category.

Even if Davis isn't playing at 100 percent, he's still dominating while he's in the game. He's averaging 26.2 points, 9.8 rebounds and 2.0 blocks while shooting 60.8 percent from the field. Miami doesn't have the size to keep him away from the paint, and his jumper is rolling right now too.

Even with Bam Adebayo on the roster, there isn't a good answer for AD.

Verdict: Buy that he may not be 100 percent. Sell that it seems to matter.