The NBA's 8 Best Bargain-Bin Buys in 2020 NBA Free Agency
As we re-learn every single year, star power is normally not enough to make a deep postseason run or win an NBA championship. You need to find undervalued role players and bet on them to outperform their contracts in order to build the best possible playoff-oriented roster.
For example, this year's Finals participants both survived on the strength of their depth. If Rajon Rondo, Dwight Howard and Markieff Morris don't show up in major ways and if Duncan Robinson and Andre Iguodala fail to provide elite floor-spacing and perimeter defense, respectively, then neither the Los Angeles Lakers nor the Miami Heat would still be standing.
As this idea will presumably remain true in the 2020-21 season, let's get a head start on free agency. Though the offseason's official start date remains unknown for now, we can still try to predict which players will be the Rondo or Iguodala for next year's class of title contenders.
Trey Burke, G
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Less than a year ago, it seemed like Trey Burke was on his way out of the NBA. He'd been a minor rotation player for the New York Knicks, then he was waived by the Philadelphia 76ers after the 2020 trade deadline.
However, the Dallas Mavericks signed Burke to a substitute contract for their playoff run, and the 27-year-old saved his career in the process.
With Jalen Brunson sitting out the restart and JJ Barea entering his post-prime, Dallas needed Burke's microwave shot-creation ability in the Florida bubble, and the Michigan alum exceeded the team's wildest expectations.
He blitzed the Houston Rockets for 31 points in the Mavericks' first bubble game, played at least 20 minutes in five more seeding matchups and filled an integral role in their first-round series with the Los Angeles Clippers, shooting 50.8 percent from the field and 47.1 from three on 9.8 field-goal attempts per game.
Brunson will be healthy next season, and the Mavericks probably can't afford to retain Burke with Brunson, Barea and Delon Wright on the roster. But he played the best basketball of his career in the bubble and proved more than worthy of a full contract in the process.
Teams like the 76ers (yes, the organization that dropped him earlier this year) and Portland Trail Blazers in need of a second-unit sharpshooter with playmaking chops should look into signing Burke to a short-term deal.
Harry Giles III, C
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Given Harry Giles III's significant injury history, it was understandable that the Sacramento Kings declined his fourth-year option. On the other hand, the Kings can't afford to give up on any player with appreciable upside, and he still has potential.
Though the Kevin Garnett comparisons are now far-fetched, the Duke alum can still be a quality NBA player—maybe even a starter.
For instance, from Feb. 1 on, Giles averaged 9.1 points and 5.4 rebounds while shooting 59.6 percent from the field over 24 games, 14 of which he started. By the time the Kings reported to the bubble, the big man had earned the trust of head coach Luke Walton and excelled in training camp.
As we've yet to see Giles for an extended period without an injury or global pandemic halting his progress, he might not be the best fit for a current title contender that can't afford any personnel missteps. However, such extreme prudence is overkill for teams on the rise. Signing a player like Giles would be perfect for them as failure wouldn't doom their overall progress and success would obviously be a bonus.
For instance, imagine Giles next to Zion Williamson in the New Orleans Pelicans frontcourt or learning from Gregg Popovich and the San Antonio Spurs. Both teams could use a starting center of the future, and even if he doesn't become a superstar, Giles might be able to fill such a role.
Jeff Green, F
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Betting on Jeff Green is a gamble at best and a flat-out bad idea at worst. But public opinion on the veteran, while understandably varied, may have overcorrected. When expectations are low and his role is strictly defined, the 34-year-old has been quite effective in recent seasons.
After years of underachieving, Green had a career-defining moment in the 2018 playoffs, posting 19 points and eight rebounds in an Eastern Conference-clinching victory for the Cleveland Cavaliers. After a subsequent year and a half in the NBA wilderness, he found his way to another postseason contender in the Houston Rockets after the 2020 trade deadline and re-invented himself once more.
As a functional center in Houston's ultra-small lineups, Green became integral to the team's success, providing much-needed size, shooting 56.4 percent from the field in 18 regular-season games and recording four games of 15-plus points over two playoff series. In the process, he earned praise from several of Houston's most important figures.
Green definitely isn't for everybody, even at this stage of his career. Even the Rockets, a team that may have ordinarily wanted to keep him given how successful their partnership was, are probably not a great fit anymore as head coach Mike D'Antoni's departure will probably change the team's playing style and eliminate Green's opportunity to play center so often.
But the Georgetown alum could still be an undervalued difference-maker for another club that can provide a clearly-defined role. The Boston Celtics, who rostered him early in the 2010s, are one notable example.
Maurice Harkless, F
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Though the Los Angeles Clippers ended up moving Maurice Harkless at the trade deadline, they had the right idea by acquiring him in the first place. He's not at the level of Robert Covington, Otto Porter Jr. or OG Anunoby in terms of three-and-D wings, but he can be vital in the right circumstances.
At 6'7" with a 7'2" wingspan, Harkless can be as versatile on the defensive end as virtually anybody short of Anthony Davis or Ben Simmons. His list of most defended players this year included everyone from Jrue Holiday and Chris Paul to Pascal Siakam and Danilo Gallinari, and the St. John's alum effectively harassed high-level scorers like Bradley Beal and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over multiple matchups.
He could stand to show more consistent effort and pack on a bit more muscle, but generally, Harkless is one of the more underrated stoppers around the league.
There's a reason Harkless isn't mentioned alongside Covington and the other top three-and-D options, though. He's a wildly inconsistent shooter, making 41.5, 27.5 and 34.7 percent of his three-pointers over the past three seasons.
However, on the days he's feeling it, his teams usually perform well. The Clippers went 17-2 this year when he made at least 50 percent of his attempted threes.
For stellar four-position defense, solid veteran presence and the occasional knockdown shooting night, teams like the Brooklyn Nets and Indiana Pacers should pursue Harkless this offseason.
Shaquille Harrison, G
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Despite being a restricted free agent, Shaquille Harrison should be available this offseason. Not only do the Chicago Bulls have four other point guards, but he's the exact kind of deep-bench player who can pay dividends for competitive teams.
Though he shot 38.1 percent from three this year and recorded a fairly solid assist/turnover ratio, Harrison's appeal doesn't come on offense. If he earns a multiyear deal, it'll be because of spectacular defense.
As Forbes' Jason Patt wrote:
"Harrison's defensive metrics are impressive. His 2.80 Defensive Real Plus-Minus places him 15th in the NBA, just a few places behind [Kris] Dunn. His Defensive RAPTOR just edges Dunn's mark. His 4.9 deflections per 36 minutes and 2.3 loose balls recovered per 36 minutes rank toward the top of the league, per NBA.com's hustle stats. He has always been good at racking up steals, and his block percentage also jumped this season."
At 6'7", Harrison can guard four positions on his best day and quarterback a stifling perimeter defense. The Bulls had a strong 99.7 defensive rating with the 27-year-old and a 110.0 defensive rating without him.
Count on teams like the Toronto Raptors and Utah Jazz to pursue Harrison whenever free agency begins.
Jordan McLaughlin, G
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If you've never heard of Jordan McLaughlin, don't be ashamed. He was an undrafted rookie and backup point guard for a high-lottery team this season. But nevertheless, he made the most of his situation with the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Despite a mostly subpar set of teammates, McLaughlin's strengths still translated to the NBA. He ranked eighth in the league in assist/turnover ratio, recorded the third-best effective field-goal percentage on the Timberwolves and quickly became one of the team's leaders.
Of the 24-year-old, Minnesota head coach Ryan Saunders said: "He has leadership qualities that are qualities you're born with. He has an ability to connect people, an ability to connect with his teammates and try to relay things to them that maybe us as coaches may not be able to convey to them."
That's a favorable quote from Saunders, and as McLaughlin is a restricted free agent this offseason, it's possible that he re-ups in the Twin Cities.
But between Fred VanVleet, Jalen Brunson, Matthew Dellavedova and more, there's a recent track record of older, less athletic point guards becoming integral pieces on highly competitive teams. It's a trend that suggests McLaughlin might be a bit more useful on a postseason-ready roster.
No disrespect intended to Wolves fans, but let's hope Minnesota sacrifices the USC alum in order to pursue starrier players, allowing him to land with a team like the Golden State Warriors or Miami Heat instead.
Nerlens Noel, C
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After flaming out with the Dallas Mavericks and quietly accepting a minimum contract over the bigger deal he could have signed, Nerlens Noel dropped off the NBA radar. And while he's far from a max-contract player or even one worthy of the sixth overall pick, Noel is still a respectable player.
Back when he was just a McDonald's All-American and Kentucky-ratified lottery pick, Noel's best-case scenario involved him figuring out how to be a well-rounded center on offense. In retrospect, he was never going to develop those skills, but the defensive talent was real then and has translated to the NBA in a major way.
The 26-year-old was the only qualified player in the league to average 2.5 blocks and 1.5 steals per 36 minutes this year and supported those counting stats with team-wide impact, recording an 11.8 net rating swing in the Oklahoma City Thunder's first-round series against the Houston Rockets, second among the team's rotation players.
Despite being an efficient scorer, Noel is a non-shooter and fairly easy to scheme around offensively. But the big man can also do nearly everything required of him on the defensive end, from protecting the rim to playing good team defense to switching screens.
Now that he's seemingly married obvious defensive talent with a more mature attitude and acceptance of his standing in the league, teams like the Los Angeles Clippers and Houston Rockets should have Noel on their radars.
Gary Payton II, G
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Anybody who manages to be a defensive playmaker on a team as bad on defense as the 2019-20 Wizards truly deserves a medal. But if that's too much to ask, they should at least get another contract.
Gary Payton II is no exception to this rule.
Though 432 minutes isn't the largest sample size, Payton managed to put his dynamic defensive capabilities on display despite playing for a team that seemed almost hostile to the idea of point prevention. The 27-year-old averaged 2.7 steals per 36 minutes and 2.4 deflections per game while guarding some of the league's best scorers.
As a result, the Wizards fully guaranteed his contract in January, with head coach Scott Brooks making the self-aware-yet-still-understated comment that his team needs "some more defenders."
Washington wants to contend with a healthy John Wall next year, so Payton may be a valuable player for general manager Tommy Sheppard to retain (especially if Wall will be on a minutes limit at first). But wouldn't it be more exciting to see the guard become a fan favorite for a team that will put his bulldog defense and competitiveness to good use in a deep playoff run?
No offense intended to Wizards fans, but even with the backcourt healthy, this team is highly flawed.
In this vein, let's hope the Boston Celtics or Los Angeles Clippers take a chance on the Oregon State alum and set him loose on elite guards around the NBA.
