Boom-or-Bust 2020 NBA Free Agents
While every NBA team has a wish list for free agency, there are only so many superstars to go around.
Actually, the 2020 offseason really only has one. And it's Anthony Davis, who might be a free agent by title only—assuming he even declines his $28.8 million player option—considering how successful his first go-round with the Los Angeles Lakers has been.
As teams move down from Plan A options, free agency becomes an exercise in compromise. Either the potential reward of a signing drops or the associated risk spikes.
When a gulf exists between the risks and rewards, you have a boom-or-bust free agent. The following five players fit the criteria for this class.
Malik Beasley, Minnesota Timberwolves (Restricted)
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Godspeed to the decision-makers forced to flesh out the substance from Malik Beasley's track record.
He was barely a blip on the NBA radar in his first two seasons with the Denver Nuggets and then had a modest breakout—11.3 points per game on 47.4/40.2/84.8 shooting—in his third go-round. Up next, he played 41 frustrating games with Denver this season (38.9 percent shooting, minus-2.9 net differential), got moved to the Minnesota Timberwolves at the deadline and immediately flashed a higher gear than ever (20.7 points on 47.2/42.6/75.0 shooting).
The problem is his Wolves' run spanned all of 14 games. Oh, and Minnesota fared a whopping 9.3 points worse per 100 possessions with him than without.
So, what exactly happened during that stretch run? Did Beasley race around the corner and dramatically increase the incline of his career trajectory? Did he simply time a hot streak perfectly right? Was this the harbinger of difference-making stats to come, or were these just empty numbers on a bad team?
Minnesota is basically pot committed to finding those answers. The trade alone signaled a willingness to re-sign him, and President of Basketball Operations Gersson Rosas is on record that the Wolves are "big fans of Malik."
Beasley's shooting should hold up (career 38.8 percent from distance), but unless he's paid as a specialist, the Wolves would need more from him. That's where his next contract could go awry, as he has never been confused for a ball-mover or a defensive stopper.
Montrezl Harrell, Los Angeles Clippers (Unrestricted)
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To say Montrezl Harrell had a rough go in the postseason is like saying Luka Doncic impressed in his sophomore season. Both things are true, but they're grossly understated.
Harrell was virtually unplayable for the Los Angeles Clippers. They were outscored by 11.6 points per 100 possessions when he played. When he didn't, they outscored their opponents by 15.6 points per 100 possessions. For the non-math majors out there, that's a difference of 27.2 points per 100 possessions in the wrong direction.
Some have speculated the disastrous stretch will cost him money in free agency. Given the unique nature of this postseason and the fact that he was dealing with a personal tragedy, though, suitors might overlook the rough patch for the reigning Sixth Man of the Year. L.A. witnessed the disastrous play firsthand and reportedly hasn't lost interest, and others haven't either.
"Harrell and the Clippers have mutual interest to find a deal, but Harrell is expected to be sought-after in the marketplace and have multiple suitors," The Athletic's Shams Charania wrote.
No matter how one perceives Harrell's postseason play, it was emblematic of the concerns with his free agency. He has clearly mastered the spark-plug substitute role, but can he grow his game beyond that? Can he rebound and defend at a high enough rate to start games and handle a heavier workload? If he can't, will that limitation be factored in to his contract cost?
Considering which clubs have cap space (not many; almost all of them are rebuilding) and how little star power exists in this free-agent class, it isn't hard to imagine Harrell securing an enormous bag from a team in need of an offensive focal point. It would be a massive gamble to ask a 26-year-old to shoulder a burden he's never needed to carry and grow his game in ways he's never had to before.
Then again, if Harrell in a featured role has all the efficiency of his sixth-man version with extra volume and better attention to detail in other areas, the club that signs him might think it got a steal.
Andre Roberson, Oklahoma City Thunder (Unrestricted)
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Defensive dynamo or damaged goods? That's the boom-or-bust question any team considering Andre Roberson must answer.
He made a seven-game cameo for the Oklahoma City Thunder in the bubble, though they didn't go back to him in the postseason after being outscored by six points over his three minutes in Game 1 of the first round. Before that, he hadn't hit the hardwood since January 2018, when he suffered a torn left patellar tendon.
The fact that he even worked his way back from a nearly three-year absence was a tremendous accomplishment.
"It was an unbelievable feeling for us to see one of our brothers who we know what he's been through mentally," Chris Paul said after Roberson first took the floor in Florida, per ESPN's Royce Young. "... To see him out there playing this game that we all love, it's special."
Of course, Roberson's journey only carries so much weight when it comes to his free agency. He might score some perseverance points with executives, and that clearly beats entering the market without ever sniffing the floor, but suffice it to say his 90 minutes of game time hardly painted a clear picture of what lies ahead.
At one point, he was among the stingiest stoppers in the game. He earned an All-Defensive second-team nod in 2016-17 and flashed the versatility needed to pester opponents across multiple positions. He never found an outside shot, but his energy gave him some offensive value in transition, as an off-ball cutter and on the glass.
If he can still be that player, he could step in and fill a role for a contender. But if he's lost some zip, then we might be talking about a run-of-the-mill defender who's a major liability at the other end. He probably won't cost much, but even then he could be a major misfire if his body won't let him contribute.
Hassan Whiteside, Portland Trail Blazers (Unrestricted)
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Hassan Whiteside's game is loud.
He blocks shots and rocks rims. He inhales rebounds like few others can. His counting categories can skyrocket at any moment.
He's the type of player who demands attention when he's on the floor. For free-agent shoppers with a vacancy at center, his size (7'0", 265 lbs) and stats (15.5 points, 13.5 rebounds, 2.9 blocks per game) will be a hard combination to overlook.
The last time he hit the open market, the Miami Heat lavished him with a four-year, $98 million deal. Of course, the contract came during the infamous summer of 2016 when an influx of TV cash meant Brink's trucks were headed to all corners of the basketball world. While Whiteside had just 140 outings under his belt at the time, his megadeal didn't feel especially outlandish when everyone was getting paid (looking at you, $64 million man, Timofey Mozgov).
It's a different situation this time around, as cap space is at a premium. Plus, Whiteside's incumbent club might not be up for a reunion with a healthy Jusuf Nurkic manning the middle.
Maybe that will create an environment in which Whiteside's loud stats result in nothing more than a quietly good signing. He can be a value at the right price—he ranked 12th among centers in ESPN's real plus-minus—and his reputation would be considerably different if he's on a bargain deal.
But there's also a chance his counting categories will swell his salary past the point that his game can support. At 31 years old, he is who he is. He can make things happen above the rim, but he's not a great screen-setter, he can get jumpy around the basket on defense, and he doesn't have the quickness to defend in space. If anyone breaks the bank for him, they'll live to regret it, just like the Heat did.
Christian Wood, Detroit Pistons (Unrestricted)
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What were your expectations for the Detroit Pistons entering this season? Nothing too notable, right? When B/R's Andy Bailey projected every team's win total last August, he ranked the Pistons 22nd with 38 wins.
That's a long-winded way of saying Detroit was nothing special, and Christian Wood wasn't guaranteed to crack the final roster. In fact, he surprised more than a few by beating out Joe Johnson—riding whatever momentum comes from winning MVP in the BIG3—for the Pistons' last spot.
Wood was that far off the radar just last summer. It took him almost until the calendar flipped to 2020 to secure a full-time rotation role. Once Detroit ditched Andre Drummond at the trade deadline, Wood's career finally took flight.
His closing stretch was incredible. Over his final 15 outings, he averaged 22.3 points, 9.5 rebounds, 1.7 threes and 1.0 block per game. For context, the only players with a 22/9/1/1 season on their resumes are Dirk Nowitzki, DeMarcus Cousins, Karl-Anthony Towns, Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis.
Wood was doing something special. But it also came in just a little over a month of a professional career that started in 2015. Did every domino suddenly drop and send Wood ascending toward stardom? Or were these perfectly timed, bloated numbers on a bottom feeder?
He clearly has talent. His combination of size (6'10" with a 7'3" wingspan), skill and athleticism isn't seen often. If the light bulb really switched on, he might be basketball's next unicorn.
But how much is too much to spend on a monthlong breakout by a 24-year-old? What if this flash-in-the-pan surge doesn't become anything more substantial?
The sample size is small as can be, which makes projections almost impossible to calculate. He could be a star. He could get stuck at the end of someone's bench. Or he could land anywhere in between. Good luck putting the right price on that range of outcomes.
All stats courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball Reference unless otherwise noted.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @ZachBuckleyNBA.
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