What Ails The Red Wings?

One of the biggest surprises in the league thus far is the mediocre start of the Detroit Red Wings. Cheering on a team that has enjoyed so much success for so long, it’s understandable that fans might be a little spoiled. A 7-5-3 start isn’t going to doom this team, but there are some startling trends that, if not addressed, could prove problematic.

To understand just what is ailing Detroit, we need to look at where they were last year. A month into the season, the Wings had a 9-2-3 record. Impressive for sure, until you notice that they only had a plus-six goal differential (53 goals for vs 47 goals against).

That early in the season, it wasn’t a bad statistic, but by season’s end, they had the third most goals against of any team that made the playoffs. It’s clear that wasn’t just a statistical anomaly. It was a problem that Detroit was able to overcome by merely scoring more, as opposed to shutting down the oppositions’ offense.

This season, to go along with their average start, they are sporting a minus-five goal differential (43 goals for, 48 goals against).

While this may not look like a huge difference from last season, these are not the same Wings. They lost Marian Hossa, Jiri Hudler, Mikael Samuelsson, Tomas Kopecky, and Ty Conklin in the offseason. That’s 88 goals and 99 assists that the Wings have to find elsewhere.

Add to that the injury to Johan Franzen (34G, 25A), and that’s a lot to expect out of their replacements: Jason Williams, Todd Bertuzzi, Darren Helm, Ville Leino, and Justin Abdelkader.

In Conklin, they lost 25 wins, a 2.51 goals against average and six shutouts. Compare that to Osgood’s 26 wins, 3.09 GAA and two shutouts. Osgood is coming off the worst regular season of his career, and is a year older. There is no proven backup to bail him out should he continue to falter. Clearly, goaltending is still a concern in Detroit.

While some may argue that the defense has some role to play in the declining statistics, the proof just isn’t there. The defensive corps is actually improved from last season with the full-time addition of Jonathan Ericsson over Andreas Lilja, who has yet to return from the IR. At this time last season, Lidstrom and Rafalski were more involved offensively, but that aside, the stats for the top four defensemen are comparable.

Before the trading deadline, the Red Wings have three choices:

1) Reload the offense and try to outscore the opposition like last season.

2) Pick up another top-four defensemen to shut down the opposition.

3) Trade for a starting goaltender who can steal a game when necessary.

These solutions become more complicated when taking a look at the Wings’ salary cap situation. If they were looking to make any kind of acquisitions, it would have to be a package deal involving multiple Wings. Free agency isn’t in the cards, as the Wings are over the cap as it is. Holmstrom, Maltby, Lidstrom, Lebda, and Meech are all unrestricted free agents at year’s end. The Wings’ level of desperation will determine which, if any, of these players are dealt.

The move that would make the most immediate impact would be an upgrade in net. The following moves would be huge for the Wings, provided they could get a deal done:

J.S. Giguère: This move would be huge, but so is his cap number. If Detroit can move a couple big contracts in exchange, he would be exactly what the doctor ordered.

Tuukka Rask: While slightly unproven, has shown he’s worthy of a starting job in the    mintues he’s been given. He might be more expensive, considering Tim Thomas is getting up in age already.

Jaroslav Halak or Carey Price: Either goalie is an upgrade. It just depends on which guy Montreal wants to go with. I doubt the Habs want to deal with the same situation Chicago had last season.

Dan Ellis or Pekka Rinne: Nashville is having the same problem as Montreal. An offer for one or the other could help make up their mind, and improve the Wings net immensely.

Martin Biron: He’s proven he can take a team deep into the playoffs. If he had a team as deep as Detroit in front of him, he could be dangerous.

Vesa Toskala: Detroit should have picked him up when San Jose was having its goaltending firesale in 2007. He’s currently in the shooting gallery that is Toronto, and should come cheap as Jonas Gustavsson is about to take the starting job.

All of these goaltenders have proven they’re capable of stealing a game when necessary, and on a team like the Wings, they could be the missing piece that keeps the Cup in Detroit for years at a time.