Picking Sides in NBA's Most Heated Star Rivalries

Just over a month into the 2019-20 NBA season, several rivalries are heating up, and there remains no clear-cut favorite to win the title.

The most volatile summer in league history set us up for the potential of one of its most exciting regular seasons. So far, it's living up to the billing.

The Los Angeles Lakers and Clippers look poised to lift that crosstown rivalry to new heights. Centers around the league are proving that position is far from the doom that was forecast for it a few years ago. Giannis Antetokounmpo and James Harden bring familiar faces to a wide-open MVP race. Luka Doncic is making multiple front offices look bad with every monster performance.

We're now far enough into this campaign to take stock of all the above. Who's ahead in a handful of head-to-head rivalries (or potential rivalries)?

To make those calls, we'll look at more than just this season's numbers. They'll be a factor, and you'll find results of fan polls based on them in each slide, but previous seasons also need consideration.

Stats courtesy of Basketball Reference and current as of November 23.

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The Athletic’s Michael Lee joins “The Full 48 with Howard Beck” to discuss the proposed changes to the NBA schedule, the in-play tournament, reseeding for the Finals, Jimmy Butler, and the Philadelphia 76ers.

Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. James Harden

Stacy Revere/Getty Images

• Fan Vote: Giannis (62 percent) over Harden (38 percent)

• 2019-20 Giannis Antetokounmpo: 48.0 "PTS+PTS by AST," 14.4 REB, 1.6 STL, 1.4 BLK, 1.4 3P per 75 possessions, +6.0 rTS%, +12.2 Box +/-, +12.6 NetRtg (+9.4 swing)
• 2019-20 James Harden: 53.1 "PTS+PTS by AST," 5.5 REB, 1.6 STL, 0.5 BLK, 4.4 3P per 75 possessions, +6.9 rTS%, +10.2 Box +/-, +8.3 NetRtg (+17.5 swing)
• Giannis, post 2017-18: 11.4 box plus/minus, 0.258 win shares per 48 minutes, 6.7 net rating (6.9 swing)
• Harden, post 2017-18: 11.0 box plus/minus, 0.290 win shares per 48 minutes, 12.7 net rating (10.0 swing)

Somehow, last season's top two in MVP voting have both upped their production this season.

Harden's scoring average went from 36.1 to 38.3. His assists went from 7.5 to 7.8. So much for Russell Westbrook negatively impacting his numbers.

Giannis, meanwhile, is up in points, rebounds, assists and steals.

Both stars' teams are at or near the top of their conferences. Picking a winner here is every bit as tough as it was last season, when both had over three quarters of an MVP share (voting points divided by maximum number of voting points).

The razor-thin difference is once again the product on the defensive end. Houston is allowing fewer points per 100 possessions when Harden is on the floor, but he isn't the kind of player you build a defensive scheme around. Giannis is.

He not only locks down multiple positions around the perimeter but is also a rim protector and a dominant force on the defensive boards. Giannis isn't quite the offensive force Harden is, but his advantage on the other end outweighs that...for now.

Verdict: Giannis

Nikola Jokic vs. Rudy Gobert

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

• Fan Vote: Jokic (61 percent) over Gobert (39 percent)

• 2019-20 Nikola Jokic: 48.5 "PTS+PTS by all AST," 11.3 REB, 1.4 3P, 1.4 STL, 0.7 BLK per 75 possessions, -2.3 rTS%, +6.5 Box +/-, +8.3 NetRtg (+10.9 swing)
• 2019-20 Rudy Gobert: 34.6 "PTS+PTS by all AST," 14.4 REB, 0.0 3P, 1.0 STL, 2.2 BLK per 75 possessions, +12.1 rTS%, +3.8 Box +/-, +7.3 NetRtg (+11.0 swing)
• Jokic, post 2017-18: 9.1 box plus/minus, 0.218 win shares per 48 minutes, 5.3 net rating (4.1 swing)
• Gobert, post 2017-18: 6.5 box plus/minus, 0.259 win shares per 48 minutes, 7.0 net rating (5.7 swing)

Jokic is the game's best offensive center. He's a revolutionary whose passing has changed the position and engineered the Denver Nuggets offense for almost half a decade.

Gobert is basketball's best defensive center. The two-time reigning Defensive Player of the Year is a system unto himself on that end. He allows the Utah Jazz's perimeter defenders to be more aggressive, knowing they have one of the greatest rim protectors of all time behind them.

Both are better on their less effective sides of the floor than many fans give them credit for. Over the course of his career, Denver has allowed 2.5 fewer points per 100 possessions when Jokic is on the floor, per PBP Stats. Gobert's screen assists (denoted by "all AST" above) and career average of 1.7 points per field-goal attempt are immensely valuable to the Jazz.

But this decision ultimately comes down to which end is more important to you. If you think that offense is of more fundamental importance to success, Jokic is the answer. For defense, it's Gobert.

While there are strong arguments for the less glamorous side of the floor, Jokic's impact and wide-ranging set of skills on offense gives him the edge.

Verdict: Jokic

Ben Simmons vs. Brandon Ingram

Rick Bowmer/Associated Press

• Fan Vote: Simmons (54 percent) over Ingram (46 percent)

• 2019-20 Ben Simmons: 35.1 "PTS+PTS by AST," 6.7 REB, 2.3 STL, 0.7 BLK, 0.1 3P per 75 possessions, +1.9 rTS%, +2.7 Box +/-, +4.9 NetRtg (+4.6 swing)
• 2019-20 Brandon Ingram: 37.8 "PTS+PTS by AST," 7.8 REB, 1.0 STL, 1.1 BLK, 2.6 3P per 75 possessions, +5.8 rTS%, +3.0 Box +/-, -4.6 NetRtg (-4.2 swing)
• Simmons, post 2017-18: 3.9 box plus/minus, 0.146 win shares per 48 minutes, 3.0 net rating (minus-0.8 swing)
• Ingram, post 2017-18: minus-1.7 box plus/minus, 0.073 win shares per 48 minutes, minus-2.7 net rating (minus-1.4 swing)

You won't see this often from me, but I'm going to defy the numbers on this one.

After Simmons and Ingram went first and second in the 2016 draft, they were bound to be compared to each other for a while. It wasn't one of those classes where there was a clear No. 1. Ingram had his supporters for the honor of being the top pick.

But over their first few years in the league, it looked like Simmons was far and away the better player. Despite the absence of a jump shot, Simmons' all-around production made him one of the league's more valuable players. At 23, Simmons is already an All-Star and a key cog for a title contender.

But in 2019-20, Ingram is showing signs of critical development, while Simmons' game has remained largely stagnant.

"Brandon Ingram is now better than Ben Simmons," The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor wrote. "Far superior scorer—P&R, spot-up, iso. Good passer. Versatile defender. 26 PTS, 7 REB, 4 AST. No reason to celebrate after a made three. He hits them all the time."

Shooting is the most valuable skill in basketball. My subjective take is that passing is second. And while Simmons may have a clear advantage as a passer, literally refusing to shoot jumpers makes Ingram's edge there even bigger.

Verdict: Ingram

LeBron James vs. Kawhi Leonard

Chris Elise/Getty Images

• Fan Vote: LeBron (80 percent) over Kawhi (20 percent)

• 2019-20 LeBron James: 52.6 "PTS+PTS by AST," 7.9 REB, 1.9 3P, 1.3 STL, 0.6 BLK per 75 possessions, +0.9 rTS%, +9.7 Box +/-, +13.8 NetRtg (+16.2 swing)
• 2019-20 Kawhi Leonard: 42.0 "PTS+PTS by AST," 9.1 REB, 1.9 3P, 2.5 STL, 1.1 BLK per 75 possessions, -1.9 rTS%, +6.5 Box +/-, +11.8 NetRtg (+11.4 swing)
• LeBron, post 2017-18: 8.3 box plus/minus, 0.194 win shares per 48 minutes, 4.8 net rating (10.2 swing)
• Kawhi, post 2017-18: 5.2 box plus/minus, 0.214 win shares per 48 minutes, 9.0 net rating (6.3 swing)

Kawhi captured the imagination of scores of NBA fans as he dominated an Eastern Conference playoff scene that didn't feature LeBron for the first time in over a decade.

By the time he was holding his 2019 Finals MVP trophy, some wondered if he'd seized the mantle of the game's best player from LeBron.

All the while, the latter was biding his time. Not only was it the first non-LeBron playoffs in over a decade, it was also his first summer off. LeBron finally had some recovery time.

And the results of that have been absurd.

Even in his age-35 season, James looks like one of the most explosive players in basketball. Pairing him with Anthony Davis has him leading the league in assists and averaging double figures in that category for the first time in his career.

The biggest story surrounding Kawhi to this point of the season is his load management.

With his team ahead in the standings and his passing as crisp as ever, LeBron is the current king of L.A. basketball. There's plenty of time for that to change, and the best way to settle this is probably with a playoff series.

But for now, this one goes to LeBron.

Verdict: LeBron

Kyrie Irving vs. Kemba Walker

Andrew D. Bernstein/Getty Images

• Fan Vote: Kyrie (60 percent) over Kemba (40 percent)

• 2019-20 Kyrie Irving: 47.1 "PTS+PTS by AST," 5.5 REB, 2.9 3P, 1.1 STL, 0.6 BLK per 75 possessions, +0.3 rTS%, +6.6 Box +/-, -1.0 NetRtg (+0.8 swing)
• 2019-20 Kemba Walker: 36.0 "PTS+PTS by AST," 5.1 REB, 3.8 3P, 1.0 STL, 0.6 BLK per 75 possessions, +0.5 rTS%, +3.8 Box +/-, +7.7 NetRtg (+3.1 swing)
• Kyrie, post 2017-18: 6.4 box plus/minus, 0.199 win shares per 48 minutes, 4.9 net rating (2.5 net rating)
• Kemba, post 2017-18: 3.4 box plus/minus, 0.130 win shares per 48 minutes, 1.5 net rating (6.0 swing)

I know I just said I don't often go against the numbers, but I'm about to do it again.

In certain team constructs, less is more. And Kemba ceding much of the offense to the rising wings on the Boston Celtics appears to have done wonders for that team.

And there's an unquantifiable impact that comes from intangibles like leadership, unselfishness and chemistry.

"Kemba might not reach the individual production of Kyrie Irving, but ultimately, he's a better fit," ESPN's Jay Williams said on Get Up. "He's not a ball-dominant guard, which doesn't disrupt the rhythm of Jayson Tatum, Gordon Hayward or Jaylen Brown."

There are relatively small sample sizes on both these numbers, but Boston scored 101.8 points per 100 possessions when Irving shared the floor with Tatum, Brown and Hayward last season. Prior to Hayward's injury, the Celtics were scoring 116.8 points per 100 possessions when those three wings were on the floor with Kemba.

That number is bound to level off a bit at some point, but the good vibes feel far more sustainable.

Verdict: Kemba

Luka Doncic vs. Trae Young

Scott Cunningham/Getty Images

• Fan Vote: Luka (93 percent) over Trae (7 percent)

• 2019-20 Luka Doncic: 56.8 "PTS+PTS by AST," 11.1 REB, 3.3 3P, 1.4 STL, 0.1 BLK per 75 possessions, +7.4 rTS%, +14.1 Box +/-, +6.8 NetRtg (-5.0 swing)
• 2019-20 Trae Young: 46.9 "PTS+PTS by AST," 4.2 REB, 3.0 3P, 1.7 STL, 0.1 BLK per 75 possessions, +1.0 rTS%, +3.0 Box +/-, -10.8 NetRtg (-1.7 swing)
• Luka, post 2017-18: 5.9 box plus/minus, 0.141 win shares per 48 minutes, minus-1.5 net rating (minus-4.1 swing)
• Trae, post 2017-18: minus-0.3 box plus/minus, 0.069 win shares per 48 minutes, minus-7.4 net rating (minus-2.4 swing)

This one feels a little unfair to Trae. And there was a temptation to put Luka up against him, Deandre Ayton and Marvin Bagley III. But this is unavoidable when the two were traded for each other on draft night.

The other pick the Atlanta Hawks received for Luka wound up being Cam Reddish, and he's on pace for one of the worst individual seasons in the NBA's three-point era.

Even if Young makes a handful of All-Star Games, it's tough to imagine looking back on this deal in 10 years and thinking it was anything but a landslide victory for the Dallas Mavericks.

Doncic is 20 years old. He's less than one assist per game shy of averaging a 30-point triple-double. He's at the helm of an offense that is on pace to be the greatest of all time. This would be a staggering level of production for any player, let alone someone in his second season.

Multiple All-Star appearances are nice. Luka has the potential to win multiple MVPs.

Verdict: Luka

Donovan Mitchell vs. Devin Booker

Rick Bowmer/Associated Press

• Fan Vote: Booker (65 percent) over Mitchell (35 percent)

• 2019-20 Donovan Mitchell: 35.7 "PTS+PTS by AST," 5.8 REB, 2.1 3P, 1.4 STL, 0.3 BLK per 75 possessions, -0.9 rTS%, +3.8 Box +/-, +4.8 NetRtg (+4.8 swing)
• 2019-20 Devin Booker: 39.3 "PTS+PTS by AST," 3.3 REB, 2.5 3P, 0.6 STL, 0.3 BLK per 75 possessions, +10.1 rTS%, +1.6 Box +/-, +5.8 NetRtg (+4.2 swing)
• Mitchell, post 2017-18: 1.1 box plus/minus, 0.108 win shares per 48 minutes, 6.2 net rating (3.4 swing)
• Booker, post 2017-18: 1.1 box plus/minus, 0.091 win shares per 48 minutes, minus-5.0 net rating (3.5 swing)

Is it cheating to call one of these matchups a push?

That's how close the comparison between Mitchell and Booker, two of the game's top young shooting guards, feels.

Over the course of their careers, Booker has been the slightly more efficient scorer. Mitchell's defensive numbers are more encouraging than Booker's, though his placement on a good defensive team may help him there.

Booker being bigger (6'5" vs. 6'1") is a point for him. His playmaking numbers are better too.

But then Mitchell is the one who has proved he can be the No. 1 option for a playoff team (Booker may be that this season, though it's too early to guarantee the Phoenix Suns get in).

This whole slide is basically the indecisive Larry David GIF.

"I don't really think it matters," Mitchell told SB Nation of the comparisons between the two. "The competitiveness within ourselves, that's what really gets us going. The biggest thing for us is trying to find ways to help our teams win."

Verdict: Push (fine, if you're going to force me to pick, then Mitchell)

Joel Embiid vs. Karl-Anthony Towns

Mitchell Leff/Getty Images

• Fan Vote: KAT (61 percent) over Embiid (39 percent)

• 2019-20 Joel Embiid: 44.1 "PTS+PTS by all AST," 14.4 REB, 1.7 3P, 1.7 BLK, 1.2 STL per 75 possessions, +2.9 rTS%, +4.8 Box +/-, +12.1 NetRtg (+13.4 swing)
• 2019-20 Karl-Anthony Towns: 45.5 "PTS+PTS by all AST," 12.9 REB, 4.2 3P, 1.6 BLK, 1.3 STL per 75 possessions, +10.5 rTS%, +9.5 Box +/-, +1.8 NetRtg (+8.7 swing)
• Embiid, post 2017-18: 4.2 box plus/minus, 0.198 win shares per 48 minutes, 8.1 net rating (10.4 swing)
• KAT, post 2017-18: 7.2 box plus/minus, 0.206 win shares per 48 minutes, 0.5 net rating (5.5 swing)

As was the case with the centers discussed earlier, screen assists are included in the 2019-20 numbers for Embiid and Towns. Have to give those big men credit wherever possible.

The four discussed here seem to be on some kind of mission to bring the position back to its former glory. A handful of others look ready to join soon. Anthony Davis insists on being a 4, but he can probably be thrown into the conversation, as well.

For years to come, these bigs are going to provide must-watch matchups. And occasionally, things will get heated, as they did between Embiid and Towns earlier this season.

On-court tussles and social media barbs aside, Towns has just been flat-out better than Embiid this season.

The difference in efficiency is massive. Towns' ability to space the floor with nearly 10 three-point attempts per game has modernized the Minnesota Timberwolves, and he looks more engaged on the defensive end.

The biggest advantage for Towns, though, might simply be availability.

Over the course of his career, KAT has played in 98 percent of his organization's games. Even if we don't count the two entire seasons Embiid missed right off the bit, he has only appeared in 64.9 percent of the Philadelphia 76ers' games. If we do include those two seasons, the number drops all the way to 39.9 percent.

Towns is the superior offensive player, is making strides on defense and is significantly more durable.

Verdict: KAT