NBA Youngsters Trying to Avoid the Bust Label
For the following players, the promise of potential is quickly fading.
The pressure of making it in the NBA is never easy, especially for those selected early in the first round. While players usually get a pass during their rookie seasons, those in Years 2, 3 and 4 are fully in danger of unlocking bust status.
The following five players entered the 2019-20 season on thin ice based on previous poor performances, and their careers are moving toward life support without strong turnarounds.
Only players 25 and younger who were selected in the top 10 of their respective drafts and are currently on rookie deals were considered for this list.
Mo Bamba, C, Orlando Magic
1 of 5
2019-20 Per-Game Stats: 4.4 points, 4.2 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 1.0 blocks, 13.3 minutes, 35.4/27.8/25.0 shooting, 9.1 PER
Career Per-Game Stats: 5.9 points, 4.8 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 1.3 blocks, 15.8 minutes, 46.0/29.5/56.7 shooting, 14.1 PER
Bamba is only 56 games into his professional career, but his lack of improvement in Year 2 compared to his draft classmates is somewhat alarming.
Through nine games, his minutes, scoring, rebounding and blocks are all down. His efficiency has plummeted, as the 7-footer has connected on just 40 percent of all shots inside the arc this season. Meanwhile, fellow 2018 top-10 picks Luka Doncic, Trae Young, Jaren Jackson Jr., Wendell Carter Jr. and Collin Sexton have taken noticeable steps forward.
The 21-year-old's offensive awareness has been awful. Bamba will too often try to force shots up in traffic or take an ill-advised three-pointer. While shooting range was thought to be one of his strengths coming out of Texas, Bamba is just 5-of-18 from three this year (27.8 percent) while letting a healthy 37.5 percent of his total shots fly from outside the arc.
The good news? Bamba's early career isn't that far off from Rudy Gobert of the Utah Jazz. Both share a similar physique, one that seems like it was built for swatting away shots in the NBA. Gobert played a small bench role for the first season and a half of his career before an Enes Kanter trade opened up the starting job.
Bamba probably won't be as lucky. All-Star center Nikola Vucevic sits in from of him as Orlando's best player and the owner of a new four-year, $100 million contract.
While his numbers and overall impact have been lacking, Bamba should still have some time before the bust vultures begin to circle. For now, he needs to simplify his shot chart and focus on the defensive end while perfecting his current limited role.
Bamba has all the tools to become an excellent rim protector but may never become the two-way center many projected him to be.
Kris Dunn, G, Chicago Bulls
2 of 5
2019-20 Per-Game Stats: 6.8 points, 2.7 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 2.3 steals, 20.4 minutes, 47.1/17.6/66.7 shooting, 15.2 PER
Career Per-Game Stats: 8.5 points, 3.2 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.5 steals, 23.9 minutes, 41.9/31.6/72.1 shooting, 12.0 PER
The fifth overall pick of the 2016 draft, Dunn was supposed to be the Minnesota Timberwolves' franchise point guard and was one of the key pieces in the Jimmy Butler trade.
Following two lackluster seasons in Chicago, the writing was on the wall for Dunn when the Bulls selected UNC point guard Coby White seventh overall this June. With veteran Tomas Satoransky serving as the team's starting floor general and White its future, Dunn has fallen to third on the depth chart.
Never a strong outside shooter, Dunn has a high-arching shot that has connected a career-low 17.6 percent of the time this season. He's been even worse playing off the ball with a 14.3 percent mark on catch-and-shoot threes.
Chicago has tried to use Dunn on the wing, with 94 percent of his court time coming at shooting guard and small forward. While his 6'3", 205-pound frame can defend smaller wing players, his offensive game isn't made to play without the ball.
Another factor working against Dunn is his age. Despite still being on his rookie contract in Year 4, Dunn is already 25 years old after spending four seasons at Providence prior to the draft. His prospect days are essentially over.
Although he's a solid defender, Dunn's poor offensive game likely means he won't even see a $7.1 million qualifying offer from the Bulls next summer and will almost certainly become an unrestricted free agent. If the Bulls can get any assets for him this season via trade, they absolutely should.
Josh Jackson, SF, Memphis Grizzlies
3 of 5
2019-20 Per-Game Stats: N/A
Career Per-Game Stats: 12.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.0 steals, 25.3 minutes, 41.5/29.4/65.0 shooting, 11.2 PER
Jackson was the No. 4 overall pick out of Kansas in 2017, an athletic wing who could play multiple positions and take pressure off Devin Booker. That was the plan, anyway.
After two seasons, the Phoenix Suns traded Jackson as part of a salary dump to the Memphis Grizzlies. Although just 22 and playing for a team that needs wing help, Jackson has begun the season in the G League with the Memphis Hustle and didn't even attend training camp with the Grizzlies.
Memphis already declined to pick up the final year of his rookie contract, an $8.9 million team option that would stand as a bargain should he have a bounce-back year. That should say enough about the team's confidence in him.
So what went wrong?
Jackson has proved a poor defender and unwilling passer with questionable shot selection. His jumper is hitchy, although his 6'8", 207-pound frame makes it difficult for opposing shooting guards to keep him out of the paint.
Last season, Jackson ranked 97th out of 101 shooting guards in ESPN's real plus/minus (minus-3.67), and the Suns were 3.2 points per 100 possessions better with him off the court during his brief tenure.
Like the other players on this list, Jackson has the talent and athleticism to make it in the NBA. Unlike the others, he'll first have to crawl out of the G League.
Frank Ntilikina, PG, New York Knicks
4 of 5
2019-20 Per-Game Stats: 5.1 points, 2.5 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.5 steals, 24.7 minutes, 37.0/36.4/50.0 shooting, 9.3 PER
Career Per-Game Stats: 5.8 points, 2.2 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 0.8 steals, 21.8 minutes, 35.5/31.0/72.1 shooting, 6.9 PER
Although he's already a quality wing defender, it's getting tougher and tougher to give Ntilikina serious minutes given his offensive woes.
He has shot 37.0 percent or worse in each of his first three seasons, giving the Knicks just 5.8 points in nearly 22 minutes per game. Although he's slowly developing a respectable outside shot, defenders still don't have to pay the 21-year-old much respect when he's on the court.
The eighth overall pick of the 2017 NBA draft, Ntilikina was just two seasons into his Knicks career before trade talk started. This past summer, New York simply asked for a second-round pick as compensation and still couldn't find a taker, per Ian Begley of SNY.tv.
The Knicks have done a poor job stocking their backcourt with veterans who can mentor the young Frenchman, instead opting for more young guards with high ceilings and low floors.
While he's never going to be a scorer who averages 20—or even 15—points per game, Ntilikina has to improve his shooting from all areas and develop his passing game to even warrant a second contract in the league. His 7'1" wingspan may land him on a bench somewhere as a defensive specialist, but that's far from what a top-10 pick should be this early into his career.
Dennis Smith Jr., PG, New York Knicks
5 of 5
2019-20 Per-Game Stats: 0.8 points, 0.3 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.8 steals, 10.0 minutes, 7.1/0.0/50.0 shooting, minus-11.9 PER
Career Per-Game Stats: 14.1 points, 3.3 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 1.1 steals, 28.5 minutes, 40.5/31.4/66.7 shooting, 12.3 PER
While Smith has built up the strongest resume to date, his early season with the Knicks has been a disaster.
In his first four games, Smith has hit just one of his 14 total shots, going 0-of-4 from three. His release has been slow, with the ball almost not leaving his hands until he's on his way down. While he's never been a good three-point shooter (31.4 percent in 126 career games), he has always needed a respectable outside shot to keep the defense honest on his drives.
To be fair, the Knicks are among the worst developmental places in the league for Smith to play right now. He's surrounded by a plethora of young guards (Elfrid Payton, Frank Ntilikina, RJ Barrett), many of whom don't provide any spacing.
Still just 21, Smith may need to get out of New York if he wants to avoid becoming a bust.
The athleticism is there, but teams need to put the right pieces and shooters around him to maximize his talent. The Dallas Mavericks were far better at this, and Smith averaged 14.5 points and 4.9 assists while starting all 101 of his games for the franchise.
Given his young age and solid early production in Dallas, Smith has a little time to rebound before he's called a bust. But playing with a disorganized and inexperienced Knicks team certainly isn't helping his career.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball Reference unless otherwise indicated. Accurate through games played Wednesday, Nov. 13.
