B/R's Full 2019-20 MLB Offseason Preview, Predictions

Zachary D. RymerOct 31, 2019

So long, World Series. Hello, offseason.

Now that the 2019 Major League Baseball season is over, it's time for an expansive look at what's in store for the hot-stove season.

We've provided a position-by-position preview of a free-agent class that will be notably topped by ace right-hander Gerrit Cole and slugging third baseman Anthony Rendon. We also took a whack at predicting where the market's top 25 free agents will end up.

And since trades will also come into play, we noted potential sellers to keep an eye on. These are teams that are not only in a position to jettison talent but that also have good players to offer.

Free-Agent Hitter Preview

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Associated Press

Anthony Rendon

Catchers

It's a near certainty that two-time All-Star Yasmani Grandal will reject his $16 million mutual option for 2020 with the Milwaukee Brewers. If so, the market will welcome a talented pitch framer with 101 home runs since 2016.

Robinson Chirinos will be the next-best option on the market. He's hit 52 homers over the last three seasons and slugged three more during the Houston Astros' World Series run this season.

There will also be interest in Jason Castro and Travis d'Arnaud as platoon options as well as in Martin Maldonado as a defense-first backstop. Veterans such as Russell Martin, Alex Avila, Stephen Vogt, Nick Hundley, Jonathan Lucroy, Matt Wieters, Chris Iannetta and Austin Romine can shop their experience.

First Basemen

Three-time All-Star Jose Abreu is about to hit free agency for the first time, but the odds he will actually leave the Chicago White Sox are between slim and none.

Fortunately for clubs in need of power at the cold corner, it's unlikely the New York Yankees will pick up Edwin Encarnacion's $20 million option for 2020. He's only half-playable at first base, but his MLB-high 297 homers since 2012 nonetheless give him obvious appeal.

Ryan Zimmerman will also get some looks if the Washington Nationals decline his $18 million option. Justin Smoak, Mitch Moreland, Neil Walker and potentially Matt Adams (who has a $4 million mutual option with the Nationals) have experience and reasonably lively bats to offer.

There's also Japanese slugger Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, who ESPN's Jeff Passan reported will be posted by the Yokohama DeNA BayStars. He's averaged a .402 on-base percentage and 34 homers per year since 2016.

Second Basemen

Teams that want power at second base could do worse than Brian Dozier, Jonathan Schoop and, assuming the Miami Marlins decline his $16 million option, Starlin Castro. Each topped 20 homers in 2019.

Teams that more so want versatility can look at Howie Kendrick—who's coming off a career-best offensive season—as well as Brock Holt, Eric Sogard and even Ben Zobrist if he doesn't retire. Wilmer Flores (who has a $6 million club option), Brad Miller and Jason Kipnis (whose $16.5 million option will be punted) will top the platoon options.

Scooter Gennett is the potential steal of the second base market. If he recovers from an injury-ruined 2019 season, he may reclaim the form that produced an .859 OPS and 50 homers across 2017 and 2018.

Third Basemen

This is it. The big one.

The third base market will be headlined by Anthony Rendon, who's in for a nine-figure deal after achieving career highs with a 1.010 OPS, 34 homers and 126 RBI in 2019. There will also be Josh Donaldson, who rediscovered much of his 2015 American League MVP form with a .900 OPS and 37 home runs for the Atlanta Braves.

Mike Moustakas doesn't hold a candle to those two, but his .845 OPS and 35 homers in 2019 give him an excuse to forgo his $11 million mutual option with Milwaukee. Todd Frazier and Asdrubal Cabrera will at least get looks as versatile platoon options.

Shortstops

Didi Gregorius will have this corner of the market.

He battled some rust after his June 7 return from Tommy John surgery, but shortstop-needy teams will still be drawn to his reliable defense and powerful bat. Trevor Story and Francisco Lindor are the only shortstops with more homers than Gregorius since 2016.

Otherwise, Freddy Galvis (who has a $5.5 million club option) is a decent everyday two-way shortstop, and Jose Iglesias is a defensive wizard who just set a career high with 11 home runs.

Outfielders

It isn't a given J.D. Martinez will opt out of the final three years of his $110 million contract. But after posting a .985 OPS and 79 homers in two seasons with the Boston Red Sox, he's sure to strongly consider it.

After busting out with a 1.002 OPS and 16 homers in only 51 games as a Chicago Cub, Nicholas Castellanos should have a strong market for his own offensive talents. Marcell Ozuna, Yasiel Puig and Brett Gardner, meanwhile, will be the best two-way options for left and right field.

Corey Dickerson, who's hit .301 and won a Gold Glove since 2018, and Avisail Garcia, who had an underrated 2019, will also be good buy-low options.

Teams in need of more specific goods can focus on the bats and experience of Hunter Pence, Adam Jones and Cameron Maybin and on the speed and defense of Jarrod Dyson and Billy Hamilton, the latter of whom presumably won't have his $7.5 million mutual option picked up by the Braves.

Designated Hitters

Of all the players mentioned above, Martinez, Encarnacion, Zimmerman and Pence certainly fit better at designated hitter than they do at any actual position.

There will otherwise be little to see on the DH market, though Mark Trumbo, Kendrys Morales, Mark Reynolds, Lucas Duda and even Hanley Ramirez figure to at least get consideration for minor league contracts.

Free-Agent Starting Pitcher Preview

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Patrick Smith/Getty Images

Gerrit Cole

Right-Handers

This is where Gerrit Cole will reign supreme.

He was spectacular in both his seasons as an Astro but especially so in 2019, featuring a 2.39 ERA and 373 strikeouts in 249 total innings. The likely American League Cy Young Award winner is all but guaranteed to top David Price's pitcher-record $217 million deal.

Stephen Strasburg might not do much worse if he opts out of the final four years of his $175 million deal with the Nationals. He's a three-time All-Star with nasty stuff in his own right as well as a bona fide October ace.

Zack Wheeler will be Plan C for many teams, albeit one who boasts tremendous upside by way of his lively arm. Then will come Jake Odorizzi, who might be undervalued despite his All-Star breakout in 2019.

A tier of veteran innings-eaters will be populated by Tanner Roark, Kyle Gibson, Rick Porcello, Adam Wainwright, Ivan Nova and Homer Bailey. Michael Wacha and Michael Pineda, who still has the remainder of a 60-game suspension to serve, will be there for clubs on the lookout for cheap upside.

The wild card is Josh Lindblom. According to Jon Morosi of MLB Network, the former major league journeyman is drawing interest in the States after dominating with a 2.68 ERA with Korea's Doosan Bears in 2018 and 2019.

Left-Handers

He won't generate as much hype as Cole, but Hyun-Jin Ryu should do well in free agency after logging an MLB-low 2.32 ERA. The only question is if anyone can lure him away from the Los Angeles Dodgers.

If not, Madison Bumgarner, Dallas Keuchel and Cole Hamels will be solid fallback options for clubs in search of a top-of-the-rotation southpaw. Though none is still in his prime, each is a decorated veteran and candidate for an ERA in the 3.00s over 200 innings.

Despite a bitter end to the season, Wade Miley can point to the 2.84 ERA he authored over 219 innings from early 2018 to late 2019. Likewise, Gio Gonzalez might cut through some doubt by highlighting his All-Star track record and 3.50 ERA with the Brewers in 2019.

If teams merely want an affordable lefty who can eat innings, Brett Anderson and presumably Jason Vargas and Martin Perez, whose 2020 options are likely to be declined, will be standing by.

Rich Hill is nobody's idea of a workhorse, but the 39-year-old boasts a 2.91 ERA dating back to his surprise comeback in late 2015. Despite his own durability question marks, the 3.20 ERA that Alex Wood posted over 304 innings in 2017 and 2018 could make him an attractive reclamation project.

Free-Agent Relief Pitcher Preview

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Associated Press

Will Smith

Right-Handers

From Craig Kimbrel to Adam Ottavino to David Robertson and Jeurys Familia, last year's free-agent market was loaded with talented right-handed firemen.

This time around, at least Will Harris should do well after capping a strong tenure in Houston with a 1.50 ERA. Perhaps it's not a slam dunk, but Daniel Hudson could also attract a crowd following his excellent work down the stretch and through October with the Nationals.

Teams will otherwise have to scrounge for potential relief aces. Chris Martin, who's coming off an all-time great strikeout-to-walk ratio, will be considered for setup work, as will Craig Stammen, Sergio Romo, Tyler Clippard, Brandon Kintzler, Joe Smith, Steve Cishek and Yoshihisa Hirano.

The wild cards are Dellin Betances and Collin McHugh. The former is a four-time All-Star, while the latter enjoyed low-key dominance out of the Houston bullpen in 2018 and a decent 2019. Yet both must recover from injuries—a partially torn Achilles for Betances and elbow discomfort for McHugh—to be of use.

It's worth noting that three-time All-Star Kenley Jansen can opt out of the last two years on his $80 million deal with the Dodgers. But with his career in an obvious decline, it's beyond unlikely that he will.

Left-Handers

The left-handed relief market, meanwhile, contains at least two gems.

Will Smith, who boasts a 2.66 ERA and 4.6 strikeout-to-walk ratio over the last two seasons, will absolutely be one of them. Drew Pomeranz could be the other if he doesn't insist on a starting job. Bullpen work certainly agreed with him, as he rung up 45 of the 100 batters he faced as a Brewer in 2019.

Ol' standby Francisco Liriano will be the next-best option for typical setup work. The rest of the market largely consists of specialist types, including Tony Watson (who has a $2.5 million player option with the San Francisco Giants), Jerry Blevins and Luis Avilan. However, those guys' markets will be hindered by the new three-batter minimum rule going into effect next season.

The bombshell that might drop on this section of the market is Aroldis Chapman, who can opt out of the final two years of his $86 million deal with the Yankees. Though the six-time All-Star in July denied having such plans, the market's shortage of proven closers could cause him to reconsider.

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Potential Sellers to Watch

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Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

Mookie Betts

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox are only a year removed from a 108-win season and a World Series championship, yet new Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom faces a mandate to cut payroll.

Said mandate might become more of a suggestion if J.D. Martinez opts out and removes his $23.8 million salary from the Red Sox's 2020 books. If not, they might aggressively shop 2018 AL MVP Mookie Betts, who's projected for a $27.7 million salary in his final season before free agency in 2020.

Alternatively, the Red Sox could try to move defense-first center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr., who arguably isn't worth his projected $11 million salary anyway.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs didn't hire David Ross as their new manager just to make him watch his inherited roster get torn apart. Nevertheless, some major changes might be in order.

According to ESPN's Jeff Passan, the Cubs will listen to offers for 2016 NL MVP Kris Bryant, who's two seasons away from free agency. If that's indeed true, it's hard to fathom why they wouldn't also listen on two-time All-Star Javier Baez, who's also two years from the open market.

Other players the Cubs might put on the block include outfielders Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ, Albert Almora Jr. and even left-hander Jose Quintana, who has an $11.5 million option for 2020.

Cleveland Indians

Passan's report also mentioned that the Indians might be willing to move four-time All-Star shortstop Francisco Lindor, who's yet another star who's due for free agency after 2021. Per Jon Paul Morosi of MLB.com, there's already one high-profile buyer in line: the Dodgers.

Since Lindor's availability would be linked to the Indians' alleged payroll constraints, other pricey players who could be had include slugger Carlos Santana, ace Corey Kluber and closer Brad Hand.

Kansas City Royals

Now that the Royals are under new ownership, there might be a greater sense of urgency to pivot in a direction that actually has some hope at the end of the line.

The Royals might finally cash in late-blooming All-Star Whit Merrifield, who's signed for cheap through as far as 2023. They could also seek takers for veteran left-hander Danny Duffy and right-hander Ian Kennedy, who found success as a closer in 2019.

Then there's the nuclear option that is a trade of Jorge Soler. Though he just led the AL with 48 homers, the Royals might sooner move him than extend him or lose him to free agency after 2021.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates initially took a "nothing to see here" approach to their dismal 93-loss season. More recently, however, they've been cleaning house and generally pointing themselves toward a rebuild.

All-Star center fielder Starling Marte, who has affordable options through 2021, could be a hot commodity on the trade market. If the Pirates really want to get serious about rebuilding, they'll also shop first baseman Josh Bell. He's fresh off a 37-homer breakout and isn't a free agent until after 2022.

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners have already put together an elite farm system, so they aren't necessarily obligated to subtract any more talent from their major league roster.

Even still, they're bound to get calls about All-Star outfielder Mitch Haniger. Fellow outfielder Domingo Santana and slugging catcher Omar Narvaez could also attract interest, and there might even be some in veteran third baseman Kyle Seager following his second-half surge.

Other Trade Candidates: 1B/OF Trey Mancini (BAL), INF Jonathan Villar (BAL), OF Clint Frazier (NYY), RHP Dylan Bundy (BAL), LHP Matthew Boyd (DET), LHP Robbie Ray (ARI) LHP Caleb Smith (MIA), RHP Ken Giles (TOR), RHP Mychal Givens (BAL), RHP Blake Treinen (OAK), RHP Kirby Yates (SD)

Free-Agent Rankings and Predictions

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Associated Press

Josh Donaldson

It all comes down to this: our rankings for the market's top free agents and predictions for where they'll sign.

For the sake of spicing things up, we've included players who we presume will hit the market via either opt-outs or options. Just look for the asterisks.