2019 MLB Free Agents: Predictions for Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon and Top Stars

As Major League Baseball winds down the regular season and 10 teams begin the quest for a World Series next week, early work is being done by all 30 clubs on this winter's free-agent class. 

Leaving aside the top players available for a moment, the storyline to watch in free agency will be how teams approach the market.

Last year most stories revolved around the broken process that led to marquee players like Bryce Harper and Manny Machado signing in late February; and Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel waited until after the draft in June to get deals done. 

Players seemed to take notice of the lack of urgency from teams to spend big money because there was a rush of pre-regular-season extensions given to 27 players from mid-February through mid-April.

This winter could see the largest contract ever given out to a pitcher and at least one position player who will likely receive a nine-figure deal. 

Here are some early predictions on where the top free agents will sign during free agency. 

Gerrit Cole, RHP (Current Team: Houston Astros)

Getting traded to the Houston Astros two years ago seemed to unlock Gerrit Cole's full potential. The No. 1 pick in the 2011 draft has a 2.74 ERA, 578 strikeouts, 279 hits allowed and a 0.971 WHIP in 63 starts since the beginning of last season. 

After finishing fifth in 2018 American League Cy Young voting, Cole seems poised to win the award this season. He leads MLB in strikeouts (316), strikeouts per nine innings (13.72) and FanGraphs wins above replacement (6.9).

If you like power stuff from a starting pitcher, Cole's fastball averaged a career-best 97.2 mph in 2019 and it's never dipped below 95.2 mph in seven seasons. 

In addition to those numbers, Cole has been durable with at least 31 starts in four of the past five seasons. It also helps his negotiating power that he just turned 29 on Sept. 8.

All of this paints the picture of a player poised to break all sorts of contract records given to starting pitchers. 

Per Spotrac, David Price's deal with the Boston Red Sox is the current record holder among pitchers (seven years, $217 million). Zack Greinke, Cole's teammate in Houston, has the highest average annual salary for a pitcher ($34,416,667 million per year). 

Cole is hitting free agency at an opportune time to cash in because ESPN's Jeff Passan listed the Astros, New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Angels, Chicago White Sox, St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants and Atlanta Braves as suitors who are "positioned and motivated" to at least explore signing him. 

From that group, the teams that make the most sense are the New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Angels. 

The Yankees tried to get Cole 11 years ago out of high school when they drafted him No. 28 overall, but he opted to go to UCLA. Their rotation certainly needs a boost in 2020 with CC Sabathia heading into retirement and disappointing years from J.A. Happ (5.01 ERA) and Masahiro Tanaka (4.47 ERA). 

New York also doesn't know what to expect from Luis Severino, who missed most of this season due to a shoulder injury and strained lat muscle. The right-hander also looked like a mess in the second half of 2018 (5.57 ERA, 76 hits allowed in 63 innings). 

If there is a reason to doubt the Yankees will strongly pursue Cole, it's because some of their core guys are poised to get significant raises through arbitration this winter. James Paxton is going through his final round of arbitration before becoming a free agent next year. Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge are arbitration-eligible for the first time. 

Per Baseball-Reference.com, their estimated payroll just with guaranteed contracts, arbitration deals and potential buyouts is estimated at $211.3 million. 

Given the offensive talent on New York's roster, headlined by young stars like Judge, Sanchez, Gleyber Torres and Luke Voit, adding Cole to anchor the pitching staff would make it the most formidable team in MLB. 

Despite the loud screams coming from Chicago right now, the Cubs don't necessarily have to trade away pieces this winter. In fact, a smart approach would be to pursue a top-flight starter like Cole. 

Keeping the offensive nucleus of Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber and Willson Contreras together will ensure they can still score a lot of runs. Re-signing Nicholas Castellanos would help, but there's also the danger of overpaying a player whose been a solid hitter throughout his career because he posted a 1.045 OPS after being acquired in a midseason trade. 

The Cubs will have an opening in the rotation with Cole Hamels coming off the books. They could clear another $10 million in salary if they decide to pay Jose Quintana's $1 million buyout rather than exercise his $11.5 million team option. 

Adding Cole would give the Cubs a top three that includes Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks. Suddenly the group looks a lot more capable of competing with the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central. 

As much as the Yankees and Cubs should go hard after Cole, no team in MLB needs the three-time All-Star more than the Angels. Trevor Cahill, who has worked mostly out of the bullpen this season, leads Los Angeles with 100.1 innings. Andrew Heaney is the only other pitcher who is healthy who has reached 90 innings. 

Beyond the Angels' desperate quest for depth in the rotation, they need to start building a roster around Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani.

Their moves last offseason, while not major, turned out to be a massive disappointment:

Trout, despite being just 28 years old, only has so many years remaining as the best player in baseball. The fact he's only been in the playoffs once in his career is an indictment of how poorly the front office has been at surrounding him with talent. 

Cole would be the perfect answer for the Angels in their quest to regain relevance in the AL West as they try to compete with the Astros and Oakland Athletics in 2020 and beyond. 

Prediction: Cole signs with Angels for seven years, $225 million

Anthony Rendon, 3B (Current Team: Washington Nationals)

The market for Anthony Rendon was likely set in February when Nolan Arenado signed an eight-year, $260 million extension with the Colorado Rockies.

Since 2014, Rendon leads Arenado in FanGraphs wins above replacement (31.7 to 29.3), on-base percentage (.373 to .358) and defensive value (49.8 to 45.0). 

Even though the juiced baseballs have completely skewed all offensive numbers recently, another argument in Rendon's favor is he doesn't have the advantage Arenado does playing half of his games at Coors Field. 

Arenado's career OPS at home is almost 200 points higher than on the road (.995 to .800). Rendon has essentially been the same hitter at home (.869 OPS) as on the road (.851 OPS). 

None of this is meant to slate Arenado, but rather to showcase how good and, in some ways, underrated Rendon has been throughout his career. This winter will be his opportunity to cash in on his performance. 

The 29-year-old would make sense for many clubs that typically have deep pockets, including the Angels and Philadelphia Phillies. 

David Fletcher has been a serviceable utilityman for the Angels in 2019 with a .290/.349/.388 slash line, but they would really stand to benefit from adding another big bat with Trout and Ohtani in the lineup. 

Pitching should be the Angels' top priority this winter, but if ownership decides to go all-in to turn things around in a flash, Rendon would be a perfect addition for them. 

One year after taking Bryce Harper away from the Washington Nationals, the Phillies should be in the market for a third baseman. Maikel Franco has been a huge disappointment with a .234/.297/.411 slash line this season. 

Philadelphia's estimated 2020 payroll if it doesn't pick up any player options is $178.6 million. The luxury tax threshold next year is $208 million, leaving general manager Matt Klentak nearly $30 million in wiggle room to make another big splash. 

Ultimately, though, the Nationals can't afford to lose Rendon after they lost Harper last year. Their nucleus with him, Juan Soto, Trea Turner and Adam Eaton is excellent. They also have Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin and, depending on what happens with his opt-out, Stephen Strasburg leading a deep starting rotation. 

Prediction: Rendon re-signs with Nationals for $265 million over eight years

Madison Bumgarner, LHP (Current Team: San Francisco Giants)

Following a season of trade rumors that didn't pan out, Madison Bumgarner has the opportunity to control his fate in free agency this winter. 

Even though Bumgarner is no longer the ace that carried San Francisco to a World Series title in 2014, the four-time All-Star still does a lot of things that make him valuable on the market.

After injuries limited him to 38 combined starts in 2017-18, Bumgarner has started 33 games this season. He's posted a solid 3.86 ERA with 194 strikeouts in 200.2 innings.

Trying to find a potential destination for Bumgarner isn't that difficult since we can simply look back to the clubs that were reportedly interested in him prior to July 31: Yankees, Astros, Phillies, Minnesota Twins. 

The Yankees could look to Bumgarner as an alternative if Cole signs elsewhere or costs more than they want to spend. The Astros may need a replacement in the rotation to support Greinke and Justin Verlander if they don't re-sign Cole. 

The Phillies can certainly use at least one more starter behind Aaron Nola who can provide a solid performance and eat innings. 

Minnesota is in a fascinating position because of how good its offense has been in 2019. The Twins broke the MLB record for homers in a season (268) on Sept. 1, four weeks before the end of the regular season. 

If Byron Buxton can ever stay healthy in 2020, the Twins could enter next season with the deepest lineup in MLB if they don't sign anyone. Their rotation will have to be addressed with Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson, Michael Pineda eligible for free agency. Martin Perez could hit the market if his $7.5 million team option is declined. 

As of right now, Jose Berrios is Minnesota's only guaranteed starter to return in 2020. The team projects to have a payroll of $96.9 million, including arbitration-eligible players and factoring in picking up all contract options. 

This should leave Twins general manager Thad Levine with a lot of wiggle room to improve his roster. They've been fairly conservative in free agency in recent years. Last winter, for instance, Perez, Nelson Cruz, Jonathan Schoop and C.J. Cron all signed for one guaranteed year. Perez and Cruz have team options for next season. 

The AL Central still looks like a two-team race between the Twins and Cleveland Indians heading into 2020. Cleveland appears to be in a holding pattern with ownership tightening its purse strings. The Twins have an opportunity to run the division for years to come with a couple of smart additions to the pitching staff. 

Prediction: Bumgarner signs with Twins for five years, $110 million