NBA Early Season Roundtable

With the season just underway, it’s the perfect time to get insight and analysis on which teams did the best job over the offseason, and how the new season will shake out. To do so I’ve asked a panel of NBA scribes, Andrew Ungvari, Robert Kleeman, Harrison Moore, and Allen Levin their take on a number of pressing NBA topics.

Keep in mind some answers were completed before the regular season started and some weren’t. Therefore, some answers will reflect early season performances, while others won’t. Enjoy.

1) Orlando, Boston, and Cleveland are the last three Eastern Conference teams to make it to the NBA Finals, and are far and away the best teams the East has to offer. Which Eastern Conference behemoth is the favorite to make it to this season’s Finals?

Erick: I like Boston to capture the East this season, but with a caveat. They have the smallest margin for error because of their age and an injury to one of their Big Three—particularly Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce—really throws their balance out of loop. However, if Boston remains healthy, they can play power offense, they shoot the three very well, their shooting frontcourt creates mismatches, and their defense is exceptional. Plus, their length and bench is greatly improved with the additions of Rasheed Wallace and Marquise Daniels to the team. Boston will suffocate opponents on the defensive end.

Ultimately, Cleveland’s offense will devolve into LeBron James isolating at the top of the key, and the Cavs still can’t cover power forwards who can shoot the three. If Orlando has to rely on Vince Carter as their primary playmaker, they won’t repeat, especially if Dwight Howard’s post offense is as rudimentary as it was last season.

Andrew: I like the Magic to finish with the conference’s best record, but I like the Celtics to make it back to the Finals because they’re probably the least afraid of the other two. I can much better picture the Celtics going into Cleveland or Orlando and stealing a win in the playoffs than I can the Cavs or the Magic [going into Boston]. I know that Orlando was able to win in Boston during last season’s playoffs, but that was without a healthy KG. If both teams are healthy, I like Boston to come out on top.

Robert: Choosing between Boston and Orlando to win the East is like trying to pick one Beatles track as the all-time best. There is no objective way to do it.

I was skeptical of the Shaquille O’Neal trade from the get-go, and the Cavaliers opening week struggles have confirmed my suspicions.

The Magic murdered the Cavs in May with a steady diet of pick-and-roll. The front office’s solution: bring in the late-30s version of one of the worst pick-and-roll defenders in league history.

Shaq could not stop a pick-and-roll when he was 23. What makes anyone in the Cavs organization think he can do it now? At least he will fit in with the rest of the flatfooted big men.

When I watched the Cavaliers lose to the Celtics at the Q on opening night, the same problems from five years ago surfaced again.

LeBron James’ jumpshot is too streaky and unreliable to carry Cleveland in the conference finals. In games against contenders, most fourth quarters begin and end with James initiating everything from the top of the key.

He was forced to go one-on-five in 2004, and against the Celtics or Magic, he still has to do that.

Shaq will sell a few more tickets, and he will afford the Cavs some inflated confidence when they face the reigning conference champs.

Dwight Howard will still eat them alive—and burp after they’re dead.

Harrison: a) Cleveland can’t even come close to Boston’s overall depth and talent, and are far too reliant on the other-worldliness of LeBron James, while Orlando has time and again proven itself to be the most inconsistent of the NBA’s elite teams                                          

b) Of the three teams Boston’s formula is the only one proven to be capable of bringing home the gold.    

c) Boston has the shortest amount of time left with their current roster and the injury to KG last season was a testament to that. With their window of opportunity dwindling, the Celtics entire roster should prove to be far hungrier than that of either Cleveland or Orlando.

Allen: After Cleveland made the trade for Shaq, I thought the Cavaliers were the clear favorite. But, after attending a Magic preseason game, I have completely altered my perception of the Eastern Conference. I am convinced that Orlando will make a return trip to the NBA Finals this year. Their depth is simply astonishing. They have an incredibly balanced attack on both sides of the ball, and they are led by one of the premier centers in the NBA in Dwight Howard. After an 8-0 preseason and a 3-0 start to the regular season, I fully expect the Orlando Magic to be in the NBA Finals.

2) Are the Los Angeles Lakers still the favorites in the West, or will another team keep them from winning a third straight Western Conference crown?

Erick:  I wouldn’t be surprised if San Antonio were able to knock the Lakers out in the Conference Finals, but right now the Lakers are the team to beat. They have five players who consistently command double teams in the post. Think about that when comparing a team’s firepower to the Lakers’ firepower. They showed during last year’s postseason that they have more resolve than the Nuggets, Portland lacks experience, and San Antonio does still have age and injury concerns.

Also, the Lakers have tremendous depth in their frontcourt, able to go four-deep with Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, Lamar Odom, and Ron Artest. No team passes better than the Lakers, few teams are as dependable in the clutch as the Lakers, and the Lakers have Kobe Bryant, arguably the best player in the game.

Unless the Lakers get complacent, or lose Gasol or Bryant to injury for the postseason, the West should be theirs.

Andrew: I definitely think they’re the favorites because they don’t have nearly the same questions about age that the Spurs do. I definitely think the Spurs had a great off-season and have a better bench, but I’m not sure that they’re better than the Lakers yet.

Robert: The defending champion is always the favorite, by virtue of that title. The team with the Larry O’ Brien trophy is the best in the league until bounced in the playoffs or knocked off from postseason contention.

Consider that the primary reason I despise power rankings.

The San Antonio Spurs are the only West team with enough experience, championship pedigree and depth to oust the Lakers. Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili have been there and done that.

Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess reached the NBA Finals but lost. You better believe they will make the most of this chance.

When Tony Parker showed McDyess his 2005 championship ring—won at the veteran forward’s expense—McDyess told the San Antonio Express-News he had to stifle tears.

This was over dinner at Parker’s house.

McDyess did not contemplate retirement because his game has deteriorated to the point of him being an elderly scrub. He might still average a double-double in silver and black.

He did not want to sign with a team incapable of getting him the ring he craves. A lot of people erroneously think McDyess played on the 2004 Detroit Pistons, including Sports Talk San Antonio host Mike Taylor.

He joined the Pistons a year later and tasted bitter defeat in Game Seven. I was at the AT&T Center that night, and I could tell he was shell-shocked and heartbroken as he slumped his way off the court.

This should not be seen as an assault on the Lakers, who remain the favorites.

Harrison : The Lakers are the only legitimate favorite in the Western Conference, period. If they don’t win at least the Conference Finals, the only team they’ll have to blame is themselves. Winning your Conference by over 10 games, your division by almost 20 and having a winning record over every Western Conference team over the last two seasons sets the bar kind of high, but the Lakers have actually gotten better every season since their 57-win, Western Conference Championship campaign in 2008, so there’s more than adequate reason to believe that they’ll be up to the task.

Allen: The Lakers have to still be the favorites in the West. They only lost Trevor Ariza from their championship team and added defensive specialist Ron Artest to their current roster of talented players. If Artest can incorporate into Los Angeles’ lineup, then they shouldn’t have issues taking care of the Western Conference.

3) Of all the offseason moves made, which one will pay the most dividends?

Erick: Richard Jefferson. After injuries to Manu Ginobili have curtailed San Antonio’s playoff chances the past two seasons, Richard Jefferson serves as an insurance policy. He’s a creative scorer who can create his own shot, something San Antonio has lacked from the wing without Ginobili. Jefferson is also a smart defender, a ball-mover, and someone who has performed well in the postseason. He takes the Spurs from has-beens' to contenders.

Andrew:  I really think that the Magic’s acquisition of Vince Carter will because he’s already found a way to fit in seamlessly. They went from looking like a team of youngsters in last season’s Finals to taking on the look of a veteran team with Carter and Matt Barnes. It was a bold move by Magic GM Otis Smith to tinker with the team’s identity but it’s really starting to make sense after having had the chance to watch them play.

Robert: There are four moves that stand above the rest, mostly because there was little risk involved.

Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess will reignite the Spurs title hopes, juicing the roster with scoring, intelligence, and belligerent defense. Jefferson is the team’s highest frontcourt flyer since David Robinson and the most complete small forward since Sean Elliott.

Ron Artest will add immeasurable toughness to the defending champs.

Rasheed Wallace will fit seamlessly with Boston’s veteran cast, offering championship know-how and his merciless brand of post defense.

The confusing deal to land Shawn Marion in Dallas was creativity at its finest.

I like these deals and free agent signings because they fulfilled needs for each side, completing dreams years in the making. McDyess and Artest have wanted to play on their new clubs for years and vice versa.

Wallace and Kevin Garnett have been best friends since the Liberty Bell first sounded.

The Mavericks, even if no one has said it, have eyed Marion for years.

Vince Carter has, thus far, fit swimmingly in Orlando, but the Magic parted with their best clutch performer in Hedo Turkoglu to make room for his gargantuan salary.

The rest of the moves, even the ones that have worked, reeked of spur-of-the-moment desperation.

Harrison : This is a particularly difficult question because “best off-season move” can be construed in a number of ways. If for the sake of argument we assume “best off-season move” asks which move will cause the biggest turnaround I’d argue for the acquisition of Richard Jefferson as he’ll provide San Antonio with some much needed athleticism and backcourt depth. While Jefferson isn’t the only reason that San Antonio will almost certainly improve on last season’s outcome, he’ll be a big part of the reason why. If nothing else, the Spurs have transformed from a mere footnote in the 2009 playoffs to the biggest adversary the Western Conference has to offer the Lakers.

Allen: At first look, it appears that the Magic’s’ acquisition of Vince Carter would be the biggest move of the offseason. But, now I am convinced Boston’s pick up of Rasheed Wallace will be the move that pays the most dividends. The Celtics look invigorated with Wallace in their lineup, and are off to a hot start at 4-0. Wallace has given Boston a veteran boost and given the Celtics a much deeper roster. Sheed will be big come playoff time.

4) Which NBA team is the worst in the league?

Erick: Sacramento. They have Kevin Martin, a nice secondary scorer miscast as a franchise-savior, and a bunch of youngsters or has-beens without talent or a clue.

Andrew: I’d say the Kings are the worst team in the West and the Bucks are the worst team in the East. If I had to choose which will finish with the league’s best record I’ll say Milwaukee. The Kings still have a slight homecourt advantage which might give them two or three more wins.

Robert: The Sacramento Kings and Memphis Grizzlies are locked in a fierce battle for this dubious honor, with the Golden State Warriors, Milwaukee Bucks and New York Knicks also in the mix.

After one week of action, the Kings look like the team any struggling playoff-caliber unit will circle on its schedule.

“We may stink, but at least we’ll get this one.”

Richard Jefferson began his Spurs regular season tenure 4-of-16 from the field. He canned seven-of-eight attempts in Saturday’s 113-94 victory over the hapless Kings.

All Sacramento can do is give real teams a chance to exit funks or ruts.

Paul Westphaul said it best after the Halloween night beatdown.

“We were trying,” he said, with a tinge of regret (“I took this job, really ?”) “We just couldn’t do it.”

That sums up why the Kings have no shot at avoiding the league’s worst mark again. They do not boast enough proven competitors or specialists to stay close in many games.

They could beat the dreadful Knicks and Bucks and collected their first win against the moribund Grizzlies. A few playoff squads will fall asleep at Arco Arena, allowing the Kings to take advantage.

That does not make them respectable.

Do you cheer when you beat your 80-year-old grandmother up a flight of stairs?

The Warriors and Grizzlies are not lacking in raw talent—Anthony Randolph, Stephen Curry, Monta Ellis, Andris Biedrins, Ronny Turiaf, and Stephen Jackson for Golden State; Allen Iverson, Rudy Gay, OJ Mayo, and Marc Gasol for Memphis.

The front offices are in disarray and the owners are walking court jesters.

Chris Cohan and Michael Heisley are two of the worst jokes in sports. No one is laughing, particularly the fanbases victimized by their cronyism and ineptitude.

Heisley, not Memphis GM Chris Wallace, propagated the Pau Gasol donation and the moronic Iverson signing.

Warriors coach Don Nelson is only sticking around to pass Lenny Wilkens on the all-time regular season victories list. Cohan has no qualms with letting Nelson half-ass his way to that empty record.

In winning organizations—basketball executives, not spoiled trust fund jerk—run the show.

The solution: Warriors and Grizzlies fans should boycott games until ownership steps down or properly apologizes.

Maybe if Oracle Arena and FedEx Forum are empty every night, Cohan and Heisley will have no choice but to listen.

Harrison : SacTown Kings. They were the worst team in the league last year and not enough moves were made to predict enough of a change. The uncertainty of Kevin Martin’s health certainly doesn’t help their cause either.

Allen: The worst team in the league is—no surprise—the LA Clippers. This is simply a horrible franchise that has had one successful year in the past decade. First overall draft pick Blake Griffin is out for an extensive amount of time and the Clippers are suffering from it. They are off to an 0-4 (now 1-4) start and don’t have much hope for the season, other than Griffin returning.

5) Will Ron Artest fit in with the Lakers, or will he make the team worse?

Erick: Artest is a polarizing figure, but the Lakers may be the best place for him. Post-playing wings present huge challenges for opponents within the Triangle Offense. With the way shooters and cutters are spaced on the court, double teams will almost-always lead to open shots if the Lakers execute properly. And since Artest is too strong for most wings to handle, he will command doubles.

His shot selection has been criticized in the past, but it’s my belief he genuinely wants to win and wants to do well for the team. He’ll respect Phil Jackson because of Jackson’s credibility, and he’s always admired Kobe Bryant.

Defensively, if Artest isn’t as quick as he once was, the Lakers’ biggest defensive problems have come when defending powerful wing scorers. Carmelo Anthony toasted Trevor Ariza during last season’s playoffs (Bryant and Luke Walton were responsible for defending Anthony the best), and among the Lakers’ biggest threats at repeating are Anthony, LeBron James, Paul Pierce, and Richard Jefferson. Artest gives the Lakers a player who can stop these powerful scorers. That alone should make his acquisition worth it for the Lakers.

Andrew: I think Artest will fit in fine because he’s an older player who won’t be counted on to carry the load offensively like he was in Sacramento and Houston. He might struggle to figure things out offensively for the first couple months of the season but it’s obvious he just wants to win. As long as he stays out of trouble that’s all his teammates will ask of him.

Robert: No one can stop Artests’ goofiness or the stretches where he likens himself to D-Wade, not even Phil Jackson or Kobe Bryant. What the Lakers’ leaders can do is coax him into obeying the laws of the triangle, most of the time.

His tenacious defense may be a bit overrated, but he has the testicles to match his big mouth.

Plus, he invited himself into the locker room after the Lakers endured a 131-92 defeat in Boston, the championship clincher for the Celtics.

He approached Kobe Bryant in the shower and said, “I want to help you win another ring.”

Yahoo! Sports , Sports Illustrated and ESPN all reported this strange story of commitment.

He has wanted to play for the Lakers for years and Bryant has wanted him in LA for just as long.

What’s not to like about this acquisition?

Even if this Hollywood experiment fails, which is less likely than Artest winning a signing competition, it promises endless entertainment.

Yes, it will work.

Harrison : Ron Artest is a much safer bet for the Lakers than most realize. Not only do the strong majority of his former teammates speak highly of him, but he’s been relatively under the radar for the last couple of years. The only controversy he’s been involved in since the Pistons and Pacers’ WWE tribute in 2004 was in last year’s playoffs against the team he’s so happy to play for now. Artest will be absolutely fine in LA.  Besides if the personality-managing triumvirate of Derek Fisher, Kobe Bryant and Phil Jackson can’t keep Ron Artest focused nothing can.

Allen: I fully expect Artest to integrate into the Lakers system and make the team better. He is an outstanding defender and gives the team another scoring option. Kobe Bryant won’t let Artest get astray from championship aspirations.

6) The Lakers, San Antonio, Denver, Utah, Portland, New Orleans, and Dallas are expected to return to the playoffs. Which team joins them, Phoenix, Houston, Oklahoma City, or the Clippers?

Erick: Oklahoma City is still too young to realistically challenge for the postseason, and the Clippers are a mess with so many poor defenders and poor decision makers. Phoenix will score, but can they defend well enough so they don’t lose too many high-scoring games?

Houston, a.k.a, The Grand NBA Efficiency Experiment, has looked terrific to start the season. The entire roster plays hard and smart, but their offense has been exceptional. Simply by moving the ball, being opportunistic, and finding the open man, they’re manufacturing points, and Aaron Brooks and Trevor Ariza have been reliable when asked to create their own shots.

With Shane Battier and Chuck Hayes in the starting lineup, you know the rockets will have sound defensive principals. Unless the offense simply runs out of gas, Houston could easily be an eight seed, if not higher.

Andrew: Of the four teams listed, I like the Suns and Clippers to make the playoffs. It’s the Hornets that I think will not only miss the playoffs this season, but will also be the first to fire its coach. I love Chris Paul and rookie Darren Collison. I think David West is a good player so long as Paul is on the court with him. But the rest of the team just has way too many question marks. Can Julian Wright be an adequate starting guard in the league? Does Emeka Okafor really care about basketball? Can they get anything out of Peja Stojakovic? They have at least six guys on their roster that even the most die-hard NBA fan wouldn’t know were even on the Hornets.

I love the Clippers depth and was really impressed by what I saw from Blake Griffin before he got hurt.  As for Phoenix, I think they will benefit greatly from the loss of Shaq, and I think Channing Frye is perfect for their offense. Earl Clark will make Amare Stoudemire expendable and could be a sleeper pick for Rookie of the Year with Griffin out at least six weeks.

Robert: Phoenix still employs a productive Steve Nash and Amar’e Stoudemire, but no one on the payroll—save a few energy role players, such as Louis Amundson—could defend my washer or dryer. The Suns will allow as many points as they score.

Watch when Nash faces Parker again, and you will see what I mean. If Nash does not guard him, somebody else will have to, and no one on the roster can.

The Clippers need top pick Blake Griffin to reach their potential. They appear ready to compete for one of the last spots, a welcome change from the usual promise of Donald Sterling-led embarrassment.

Oklahoma City has the star power and home-court advantage to steal one of those final slots, but youth and inexperience will inhibit a postseason quest.

The Rockets, though devoid of proven All-Stars, are loaded with players who have something to prove. All of the major rotation cogs, save David Andersen and Chase Budinger, have playoff experience.

Visit my archives for more on why I think the Rockets can grab the seventh or eighth seed.

Harrison : Of the teams mentioned, the Rockets are by far the safest bet to make the playoffs. Their entire formula is predicated on athletic full-court offense, and more importantly, stifling defense. Even for a team comprised of role players, it’s hard to doubt that formula, especially given the Rockets’ track record. They’ll fight night in and night out and are capable of finishing in the mid-to-high 40’s win range which should be enough for a 7-8 seed in the West. Though the prospect of the Hornets making the playoffs was assumed for the question, I’m not fully sold on its legitimacy.

Allen: Phoenix will sneak into the 8^th and final spot in the Western Conference playoff picture. They have a solid team, with Steve Nash and Amar'e Stoudamire anchoring the roster still. The addition of Channing Frye will benefit the team as well. They will have lots of contention from Houston, but in the end the Suns will snatch the final spot.

7) Atlanta, Miami, and Chicago each made the postseason last year. Which team makes the biggest leap this year?

Erick: I’ll say Chicago. The Heat made no real improvements to a mashed up roster of mistake-prone youngsters, brittle veterans, and roster filler. Atlanta can’t grow up and still makes tons of defensive mistakes. Chicago should benefit by losing Ben Gordon’s porous defense and selfish offense. John Salmons can fill it up and pass, Joakim Noah is an active defender, and Derrick Rose will be mentioned among the best point guards in the game sooner rather than later. They’re better equipped to winning a playoff series than Atlanta or Miami.

Andrew: It definitely isn’t Miami, but if I had to choose between Atlanta and Chicago I’d say it’s Chicago. I think the addition of Jannero Pargo will off-set the loss of Ben Gordon and with Tyrus Thomas eligible for a contract extension next summer he’ll probably play his best basketball. I also really like their rookies, Taj Gibson and James Jones. Gibson will finish in the top-20 in the league in blocks as a rookie and Johnson would have been a top-5 pick if he’d stayed in school another year. I think their summer additions were better than the Hawks did with Jamal Crawford and Jeff Teague.

Robert: I do not foresee any of these squads making considerable improvements. Miami is sitting pretty at 3-0 but hasn’t played a title contender yet.

The Atlanta Hawks still cannot defend in big road games, as evidenced by the 118 points surrendered Sunday in Los Angeles. No team that wants to do more than get swept in the second round plays defense like that—i.e. not playing any at all.

The Chicago Bulls followed an impressive first win over the San Antonio Spurs with a humiliating road defeat to the Boston Celtics. When the Bulls face the Spurs later in the season, what happens when San Antonio is not overly confident after thrashing a playoff foe and when Chicago is not riding the high that comes with a home opener?

Any of these squads could survive a first round series, and survive is an appropriate word. None of them have the experience, roster depth or defensive consistency to reach the Conference Finals.

The Heat play superb, energetic defense in stretches, but who besides Dwyane Wade can be counted on to score against the Celtics, Magic or Cavaliers in a seven-game set?

Harrison : None of the above. Neither Miami, Atlanta nor Chicago made any significant improvements during the off-season. If anything, Chicago took a step back when they allowed the departure of Ben Gordon. With Washington looking to drastically improve on their disappointing injury riddled season last year and the top three Eastern Conference forces setting themselves even further apart from the rest, teams like Miami Atlanta, and Chicago are inevitably going to find themselves on the outside looking in come the second round of the playoffs. But if you want to talk about who steps up in 2011 and you look at the possibility that Dwayne Wade winds up in Chicago red….well…that’s a different story.

Allen: The Eastern Conference is ruled by the big three of Boston, Orlando, and Cleveland. Although Atlanta and Chicago made improvements over the offseason, no team made the jump to overtake the Eastern Conference elite. The Hawks added Jamal Crawford and will most likely secure the fourth spot. I expect Miami and Chicago to be the 5^th and 6^th spots in the East.

8) Sean May, Shelden Williams, Adam Morrison, and Ike Diogu have all been busts up to this point in their careers and none are with the team that originally drafted them. Which has the best chance at resurrecting his career?

Erick: Of the four, Diogu is probably the most talented. He’s strong and quick in the post, but doesn’t play with real intensity or focus. The other three players are non-athletes. Williams is one of the least talented players to suit up this decade, and his hands are awful. Morrison has no quickness or confidence and is abused on the defensive end. May’s never in shape long enough to show what he can do. If any player has a chance of possibly becoming a reliable starter or rotation player on a good team, it’s Diogu in a heartbeat. He’s the most talented of the quartet.

Andrew: I think Diogu has the best chance of the four because I don’t see May getting any attention in Sacramento. Williams won’t get a lot of minutes in Boston once Glen Davis comes back from his suspension/injury and neither will Morrison. Diogu can score if given the touches. Even with Emeka Okafor and David West, Diogu could be the Hornets best low-post scorer.

Robert: None of these players will ever live up to their high selections. If your idea of resurrection involves becoming a terrific utility player, Shelden Williams, now a key reserve on the Celtics, seems like the best bet.

Harrison: Injuries have hindered all four of these players from being able to really contribute to their respective teams, but Morrison’s outstanding offensive display in the summer league proves that he has the potential give the Lakers another three-point threat off the bench. While he will almost certainly never become a key contributor to the Lakers, the ability to add minor, yet notable contributions to a Championship team is much more than May or Diogu can claim to have.

While playing with the Celtics offers Williams has a shot at resurrecting his career as well, the Lakers have historically struck gold with the production of their role players, particularly in the post-season, and when you combine that with what we’ve seen from Morrison over the summer, he’s the obvious pick.

Allen: I feel Sean May will have the best chance of reviving his career. He is on a young Sacramento team and will be used more in the Kings offense than he was in Charlotte. He could become a solid 10 and 10 guy.