MLB Teams Best Positioned to Land a Superstar Before the 2019 Trade Deadline
July is here. Let the bidding for the top stars on the Major League Baseball trade market begin.
We've come to discuss eight teams that could be especially difficult to outbid as the clock ticks down to the July 31 trade deadline. These are clubs that have:
- Proper incentive to go all-in on trade acquisitions
- Significant needs to fill
- Young talent to offer
- Some payroll flexibility
We'll begin with some honorable mentions, and then move roughly in order from most likely to least likely to be outbid.
Honorable Mentions
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First, here are five teams that were considered but didn't make the cut for various reasons.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers will surely be looking for major upgrades, and there's a decent chance they'll land one or two. However, their weak farm system and bloated payroll leave them vulnerable to getting outbid.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox need relievers above all else, but they could also use a No. 5 starter and perhaps an extra bat. It's too bad they have MLB's worst farm system and that they're already looking at a hefty luxury-tax bill.
Chicago Cubs
Between their farm system and luxury-tax standing, the Cubs are in the same boat as the Red Sox.
Texas Rangers
The upstart Rangers can dig in their heels by addressing a pitching staff that's barely held together. But since they're a retooling club that's only looking at a wild-card berth, they must be protective of what little they have in their No. 29 farm system.
San Diego Padres
The Padres have baseball's best farm system, and they might just put it to use in pursuit of the top-flight starting pitchers they're missing. But since they're only 42-43, those pursuits can and should wait.
Tampa Bay Rays
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Record: 50-36, 2nd in AL East
After winning 90 games in 2018, the Tampa Bay Rays are on pace for a 94-win season that would mark the third-best campaign in their history.
The Rays, however, endured a 13-16 June that raised doubts about their formula. According to Juan Toribio of MLB.com, they'll be in the market for "multiple" relief pitchers. They should also be on the lookout for an impact hitter and/or starting pitcher.
The biggest advantage the Rays have on the trade market is their wealth of young talent. We have their farm system ranked as the third-best in MLB. At least in terms of acquisition cost, there isn't a trade chip the Rays can't afford.
The actual cost of players is another matter. With their 2019 expenses creeping up on what they spent in all of 2018, now might not be the time for the Rays to break with their habit of keeping their wallet closed.
Lastly, the Rays' 5.5-game deficit to the New York Yankees in the American League East points them in the direction of a one-game wild-card playoff. That also figures to make them averse to risks.
St. Louis Cardinals
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Record: 41-42, 3rd in NL Central
In light of their 88-win 2018 and subsequent active offseasoon, the St. Louis Cardinals have been a letdown thus far.
Yet all is not lost. The National League Central race hasn't left the Cardinals in the dust, and they can still hope for Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Carpenter and Miles Mikolas to revert to their 2018 forms.
This is not to say the Cardinals don't have needs. Their slumping offense could use a pick-me-up. They could also use a stabilizer for their shaky starting rotation and a late-inning reliever to fill Jordan Hicks' (Tommy John surgery) shoes.
The Cardinals only have MLB's No. 25 farm system to barter with, yet their best prospects (i.e., third baseman Nolan Gorman and outfielder Dylan Carlson) may be available. They could also dangle outfielder Tyler O'Neill and right-hander Alex Reyes, both of whom are former top prospects, as change-of-scenery candidates.
A bigger issue has to do with the Cardinals' financial flexibility, or apparent lack thereof. They opened 2019 with a franchise-record $162.6 million payroll. At least as long as the NL Central lead remains elusive, they may be reluctant to pile on.
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Los Angeles Dodgers
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Record: 58-29, 1st in NL West
The Los Angeles Dodgers are already the best team in Major League Baseball, but they can still improve.
The Dodgers have generally been protective of their best prospects but not so much that they've been completely against trading for superstars. Otherwise, they wouldn't have ended up with Yu Darvish in 2017 or Manny Machado in 2018.
Despite those trades, the Dodgers still have the No. 9 farm system in baseball. With an elusive World Series victory squarely in their sights, it's possible they'll be more willing than ever to sacrifice prospects.
The Dodgers may also be willing to stretch their payroll even further. They're already over the $206 million luxury-tax threshold, but they have plenty of leeway before they have to worry about the harsher penalties that kick in at $226 and $246 million.
Which leaves just one question: What do the Dodgers even need?
Apart from a late-inning reliever to help out Kenley Jansen, not much. More than anything, that's what may keep them out of the superstar section of the trade market.
Philadelphia Phillies
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Record: 45-40, 2nd in NL East
The Philadelphia Phillies spent the offseason putting together a star-laden roster that would surely lead them back to the top of the National League East.
The Phillies were indeed on fire for a while there, but they fizzled in June. They lost star left fielder Andrew McCutchen (torn ACL) early in the month, and an 11-16 record allowed the red-hot Atlanta Braves to take a 4.5-game lead in the division.
If they're going to rekindle their flame, the Phillies must consider upgrades for an extremely hit-or-miss offense as well as for a starting rotation and bullpen that are short on stars.
To those ends, the Phillies can offer sellers of stars pieces from their 14th-ranked farm system. And while they've already spent much more than they did in 2018, last season was one of several consecutive lean years by the franchise's usual standards. Philadelphia should have some money saved up.
One caveat is that the Phillies are only about $10 million shy of triggering the $206 million luxury-tax threshold. Another is that their standing in the NL East could put them in a cautious mood.
Atlanta Braves
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Record: 50-36, 1st in NL East
Unfortunately for the Phillies, the Braves can also make themselves even better.
They maneuvered to do just that when they signed 2015 American League Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel last month. They might now consider additional reinforcements for their pitching staff, which consists of a shaky starting rotation and a bullpen that can't quite be trusted despite its dominant June.
Many sellers are presumably eager to do business with the Braves, as it would mean a chance to subtract pieces from their No. 2 farm system. The Braves themselves may be less enthusiastic about that, but they might come to the realization that they have more prospects than they need.
Atlanta's payroll considerations will likely be a bigger hurdle. The club has already surpassed its expenses from 2018, which was the priciest season in its history.
But with a trip to the World Series within sight, perhaps the Braves will be inclined to dig deeper anyway. Besides, very little of the money on their books now will still be there beyond this season.
Minnesota Twins
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Record: 53-31, 1st in AL Central
The Minnesota Twins didn't enter the season as the favorites in the American League Central, but they've had little trouble playing the part.
Though the Cleveland Indians have been playing better recently, really the only question now is whether the Twins will dig in for a World Series run. That would require upgrades to their starting rotation and bullpen, which have merely been good enough in support of the club's high-powered offense.
With their 2019 expenses short of what they paid out in 2018, the Twins seem to have some space for extra salary. They can also offer prospects from a farm system that ranks as baseball's 10th-best.
Trouble is, much of the intrigue with Minnesota's system is contained in shortstop Royce Lewis and outfielder Alex Kirilloff. It's likely both are untouchable, in which case the Twins would have to barter with some of the lesser names in their pipeline.
Apart from that, however, there isn't much holding the Twins back from acquiring what they need ahead of July 31.
New York Yankees
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Record: 54-29, 1st in AL East
Yankees general manager Brian Cashman isn't making any secret of what he's looking for as he seeks to deliver the franchise's 28th World Series championship.
"I'd love to add pitching if I can, whether it's the bullpen or rotation," he said, according to Pete Caldera of NorthJersey.com.
The Yankees rotation has been lacking depth ever since Luis Severino (shoulder) got hurt in spring training, and it finally hit a wall with a 5.75 ERA in June. The team's bullpen is comparatively A-OK, but another arm to help Aroldis Chapman and Adam Ottavino wouldn't hurt.
The Yankees only have MLB's No. 20 farm system to pull from, but it features appealing standouts such as right-hander Deivi Garcia and outfielder Estevan Florial. They can also generate interest in former top prospect Clint Frazier, who doesn't have a clear long-term role in New York.
Meanwhile, the club's proximity to the $246 million threshold for severe luxury-tax penalties is theoretically a wrench in the gears. According to David Lennon of Newsday, however, principal owner Hal Steinbrenner says it's not.
Houston Astros
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Record: 54-32, 1st in AL West
The Houston Astros are once again atop the American League West and very much in the hunt for a third straight 100-win season and a second World Series title in three years.
Yet the Astros did get a reality check of sorts in June. They lost nine of 11 at one point, and they suffered from an offensive slump and poor performances by the back end of their starting rotation.
According to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle, Astros president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow will primarily be looking to solve his club's pitching shortage ahead of the July 31 deadline. A move for another bat can't be ruled out, however.
To those ends, the Astros have baseball's No. 8 farm system to pull from in trades. They also seem to have a fair deal of financial flexibility. They're spending less than they did in 2018, and there's a good deal of distance between their position and the $206 million luxury-tax threshold.
What's stopping the Astros from owning trade season? Frankly, not a whole lot.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. Payroll data courtesy of Roster Resource and Cot's Baseball Contracts.
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