Everything You Need to Know About Warriors-Raptors 2019 NBA Finals
The Golden State Warriors and Toronto Raptors tip off the 2019 NBA Finals on Thursday.
For the first time since 2014, it's not the Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers. And for the first time since 2010, LeBron James won't be playing in the series.
But a little parity is a good thing, especially with the final four to seven games of an NBA campaign.
Beyond just a shake-up from the four-year war between Golden State and Cleveland, the Warriors-Raptors series offers high-level basketball with three top-five to top-10 players, a few shots at history and massive free-agency implications.
The Basics
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Schedule
- Game 1: Thursday, May 30, Warriors at Raptors (9 p.m. ET on ABC)
- Game 2: Sunday, June 2, Warriors at Raptors (8 p.m. ET on ABC)
- Game 3: Wednesday, June 5, Raptors at Warriors (9 p.m. ET on ABC)
- Game 4: Friday, June 7, Raptors at Warriors (9 p.m. ET on ABC)
- Game 5: Monday, June 10, Warriors at Raptors (9 p.m. ET on ABC, if necessary)
- Game 6: Thursday, June 13, Raptors at Warriors (9 p.m. ET on ABC, if necessary)
- Game 7: Sunday, June 16, Warriors at Raptors (8 p.m. ET on ABC, if necessary)
Playoff Leaders
- Points: Kevin Durant (34.2), Kawhi Leonard (31.2), Stephen Curry (27.3)
- Rebounds: Draymond Green (9.9), Kawhi Leonard (8.8), Pascal Siakam (7.0)
- Assists: Draymond Green (8.2), Kyle Lowry (6.4), Stephen Curry (5.6)
Regular-Season Series
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Regular-season games between Finals opponents can sometimes shed light on the series, especially if the teams faced each other in the league's finale more than once.
Recent examples include the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics in 2008 and 2010; the Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs shortly after that; and, of course, the Warriors and Cavs.
For the Warriors and Raptors, there isn't a ton to be gleaned from their head-to-head matchups earlier this season.
On Nov. 29, Toronto beat Golden State in overtime 131-128. But Curry didn't play in that game. The fun showdown that night was between Durant (51 points) and Leonard (37), but of course, KD's out for at least the beginning of the series.
And every team's drastically different at the beginning of the season than at the end.
The second game wasn't much closer to the Finals. On Dec. 12, the Raptors destroyed the Warriors 113-93 without Kawhi. Maybe Raptors fans can take some comfort from that one, but again, it was about six months ago. And Marc Gasol, who joined Toronto at the February trade deadline, is new to this equation.
There's a lot more to learn from the recent play of both teams.
The Warriors have looked like their 2014-15 and 2015-16 selves since Durant exited Game 5 of the second-round series against the Houston Rockets. The ball and the players are constantly on the move, the Curry/Draymond pick-and-roll is back, and Curry looks like the one-man offense that led to a record-setting 73 regular-season wins in 2015-16.
In the five-and-a-half games since Durant went down, here is what Curry has done per 36 minutes: 33.9 points, 7.0 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 5.6 threes, a 25.9 game score and plus-nine. His shooting numbers are ridiculous as well: 47.2 percent from the field, 42.7 percent from three and 95.7 percent from the line. He has an effective field-goal percentage of 60 and a true shooting percentage of 66.9.
The Raptors, meanwhile, aren't a one-man show, but Leonard has been absurd throughout the postseason. He's tied with Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic for the lead in value over replacement player and averaging 31.2 points per game. And he seems to have gotten the help he's needed from different parts of the roster.
Toronto has depth, but don't be surprised if it looks like Kawhi is playing David to Golden State's Goliath from time to time.
Injuries
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The calf strain Durant suffered against Houston didn't slow down the Warriors as they marched through the West. They haven't lost a game since then.
But Durant's abilities were always going to be more important in the Finals, whether Golden State was faced with Kawhi or Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks.
As much as Durant would have helped offensively—he has the highest game score in NBA Finals history by a comfortable margin—his defense may have been every bit as important.
Golden State needs as many lengthy, athletic defenders against Kawhi as possible, and Durant is supposed to be out for at least the start of the series.
Durant traveled with the team to Toronto, but he's officially ruled out for Game 1.
"The All-Star forward has been shooting on his own but has yet to do any on-court work with his teammates as he continues the rehab process, coach Steve Kerr said," per ESPN.com. "The Warriors said Friday that they were hopeful that Durant could return at some point in the series."
Interestingly enough, DeMarcus Cousins, who suffered a torn quad in the first round, is listed as questionable for Game 1, though his reintegration should be far lower on Golden State's list of priorities. During the regular season, the Warriors were 2.7 points per 100 possessions worse when Cousins was on the floor.
And Andre Iguodala has been hampered by a calf injury. He's listed as a game-time decision for Thursday.
The Raptors have some injury concerns as well. Leonard isn't on the report right now, but he did appear to be laboring at times throughout the Eastern Conference Finals. If he's hampered again or if his leg gets worse, Toronto's in trouble.
The team is used to playing without its leading scorer. Load management held him out for roughly a quarter of the regular season. But four-to-seven consecutive games against the Warriors is different.
The Raptor on the injury report is OG Anunoby, who's out following an appendectomy.
Matchups
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If we sort the major players in this series by the average of their regular-season ranks in five catch-all metrics—real plus-minus, player impact plus-minus, box plus-minus, win shares per minute and game score per minute—this is how the matchups shake out.
- Point Guard: Stephen Curry (No. 4) over Kyle Lowry (No. 34)
- Shooting Guard: Danny Green (No. 60) over Klay Thompson (No. 144)
- Small Forward: Kevin Durant (No. 9) over Kawhi Leonard (No. 14)
- Power Forward: Pascal Siakam (No. 23) over Draymond Green (No. 85)
- Center: DeMarcus Cousins (No. 31) over Marc Gasol (No. 45)
- Sixth Man: Andre Iguodala (No. 83) over Serge Ibaka (No. 105)
- Seventh Man: Kevon Looney (No. 41) over Fred VanVleet (No. 118)
Now, obviously, this isn't a perfect way to do this. You'd be hard-pressed to find anyone other than diehards in Toronto who'd take Danny Green over Klay Thompson, but it's an interesting exercise.
Thompson has long been difficult for the advanced metrics to define because many of the numbers are box-score based. And so much of Thompson's impact isn't.
Another obvious issue is that Durant and Cousins aren't playing right off the bat. That throws matchups out of whack.
And perhaps the biggest thing to point out is that several of these players may have been saving their extra gears for the postseason.
Draymond has found his old self. At 13.6 points, 9.9 rebounds and 8.2 assists per game, he's nearly averaging a triple-double in the playoffs. And his playoff box plus-minus nearly triples the one he posted as he coasted through the regular season.
Kawhi is playing far better than he did in the regular season as well. And his peak may only be exceeded by Curry's or Durant's.
Odds
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The oddsmakers at Caesars Palace tabbed the Warriors as heavy favorites heading into this series.
Golden State is minus-320, meaning you would have to bet $320 to win $100. Toronto is plus-260, meaning a $100 bet would win $260.
But those odds were from Saturday, and some of the money may have influenced the lines already.
According to B/R Betting, "After opening as one-point underdogs, the Raptors are now one-point favorites for Game 1 of the Finals."
Caesars also released odds on who'll win Finals MVP and what the exact outcome of the series will be.
For MVP:
- Stephen Curry (minus-150)
- Kawhi Leonard (plus-200)
- Draymond Green (plus-900)
- Klay Thompson (plus-900)
- Kevin Durant (plus-1800)
- Pascal Siakam (plus-3000)
- Kyle Lowry (plus-3000)
For the outcome:
- Warriors in six (plus-250)
- Warriors in five (plus-350)
- Warriors in four (plus-450)
- Warriors in seven (plus-450)
- Raptors in seven (plus-550)
- Raptors in five (plus-800)
- Raptors in six (plus-900)
- Raptors in four (plus-2500)
May the odds be ever in your favor.
History
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The Warriors are already the first team since the Celtics of the 1950s-60s to make five consecutive trips to the Finals. There were nine teams in the NBA in 1966. The Warriors' accomplishment is significantly different.
Now, they have a chance to pull off the first three-peat since Shaquille O'Neal's and Kobe Bryant's Lakers from 2000 to 2002.
And if Curry can lock down his first Finals MVP, he will enter rarified air in the all-time great discussion. He's already 10th all-time in career box plus-minus. Only 12 other players have multiple regular-season MVP awards, and he's the only unanimous MVP in NBA history. But the Finals MVP has eluded him.
With the way he's played since Durant's injury, it's no wonder he's the favorite for that honor this year, even if it's not something that drives him.
"It's a special award that everybody wants to get, including myself," Curry said, per Bay Area News Group's Mark Medina. "But at the end of the day, the first thing I do is look up and see, 'Did you win or lose?'"
As for the Raptors, winning would give them the first title in team history. And another Finals MVP for Kawhi would make him the 12th player to win the award more than once.
Free-Agency Implications
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The free agencies of Durant and Leonard are hovering over everything else in this Finals.
According to Caesars, the Los Angeles Clippers are favored to be Leonard's team for the 2019-20 season. Yahoo's Keith Smith posted odds that had the New York Knicks as the favorites to land Kevin Durant.
The best player on one team and arguably the best on the other are both expected to play elsewhere next season. That storyline has never been attached to a Finals before.
And it makes the outcome even more interesting.
Does a Warriors win make Durant more or less likely to leave? Same for the Raptors with Kawhi. What if Durant never makes it back from the injury, and Toronto upsets the Warriors?
There's a chance both already made their decisions long ago. But if they haven't, the next few weeks have the potential for ramifications that go far beyond one championship.
Durant and Leonard each has the ability to be the best player on a title-winning team. Their decisions will go a long way toward setting the landscape of the NBA for the next few years.
