Preakness Odds 2019: Updated Lines and Favorites After Post Positions Draw

War of Will and Improbable are loved by oddsmakers to win the 2019 edition of Preakness after the draw for post positions was made on Wednesday:

It's Improbable who is the favourite for the 144th Preakness Stakes on Saturday, May 18, with War of Will almost as fancied. He will be racing from post position one, while Improbable takes the fourth starting spot at Pimlico.

The field still looks loaded, even though Country House, winner of the Kentucky Derby, won't participate after trainer Bill Mott confirmed a throat problem for the Colt, per Jay Privman of Daily Racing Form.

Mott's horse won after Maximum Security was disqualified for impeding others. Manager Ben Glass ruled Maximum Security out due to a cut sustained "up in the hind legs," per Horse Racing Nation's Jonathan Lintner.

There won't be a Triple Crown winner this year, but the leading contenders for the Preakness are good enough to keep spectators entertained in Baltimore.

Improbable

Post position four is a good spot for Improbable. It's not the middle, but far enough off the rail to let the three-year-old make a fast start.

Alternatively, trainer Bob Baffert could set this horse up for a late run. Although the 66-year-old is doing his best to play down expectations:

Baffert should be more confident, since the Hall of Famer has eight wins at Pimlico to his credit, so he's sure to have jockey Mike Smith carry out the right strategy.

Smith is another experienced winner at Pimlico, having ridden to victory in the Stakes in 1993 and 2018. The last of those wins came in the saddle of Justify.

Improbable can't match the Triple Crown Winner, but this is still a horse with plenty to offer this weekend. Specifically, he was second in April's Arkansas Derby and finished fifth in this year's controversial race at Churchill Downs.

Irad Ortiz Jr. had the reins in Louisville, but with Smith in control and a post position that gives him options from the start, expect Improbable to be in the final chase for the win.

War of Will

War of Will has a strong case to finish ahead of other touted horses, but his chances may have already taken a hit if trainer Mark Casse's reaction to today's draw is anything to go by:

After the initial disappointment had worn off, Casse began putting a positive spin on a tricky draw:

Casse's frustrations are understandable considering starting on the rail is becoming a familiar feeling for War of Will:

An unfavourable starting spot might be enough to dampen some of the enthusiasm for this horse. The Colt had been attracting admirers after racing well in tough conditions in Kentucky, per Mike Curry of America's Best Racing:

"He ran well enough in defeat, finishing eighth by 4 ½ lengths before being moved up to seventh via disqualification of Maximum Security, to be optimistic about in the Preakness. He was really moving when the bumping occurred between him and Maximum Security and he got right back to near his top speed figure (Equibase Speed Figure of 105 was two ticks off his best as was his 94 BRISnet rating). That was more than a respectable performance on a soupy track from the inside post in a 19-horse field."

Gaining an early advantage won't be easy, but this horse has the speed to stay in touch with the crowd early. The onus will be on jockey Tyler Gaffalione to make sure enough energy is held in reserve to make a decisive late surge clear of the field.

It's a tough ask for somebody set to ride in his first Preakness.

Gregory Payan/Associated Press

With Improbable likely to employ a similar tactic, this Preakness could be set for a thrilling finish between the two horses bettors are already warming to the most.

If there is an obvious threat to the top two it's Alwaysmining. The Colt backed at 8-1 has been drawn in the sweet spot at seventh.

It's a great position for a horse that has won six straight races by comfortable distances, according to Curry. Like Gaffalione, Jockey Daniel Centeno is a rookie at Pimlico, but the 37-year-old knows how to use the speed at his disposal, something he proved as a winner in the Federico Tesio Stakes at Laurel Park back in April.

Pipping Improbable and War of Will won't be easy, but Alwaysmining is meriting buzz as a contender who can do it. Experience seems more likely to win the day, though, so the influence of Baffert and Smith will be more of a factor.

Improbable may not be a spectacular entrant, but he's solid enough and backed by the right people to prove the favourite's tag right.