UFC Fight Night 151 Staff Picks: Predictions for Iaquinta vs. Cowboy
The UFC is heading north of the border Saturday for Fight Night 151, with fans in Canada's capital city of Ottawa expecting an action-packed main event.
Al Iaquinta and Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone headline the card, and the always-popular Cowboy is looking to keep momentum on his side after stringing together consecutive wins in his past two fights. Those performances led to heavy speculation that he would be matched up against Conor McGregor. While that bout wasn't meant to be, the 36-year-old faces a tough challenge against Iaquinta, whose only loss stretching back to mid-2014 was against the unbeaten Khabib Nurmagomedov.
Further down the card, the crowd will be cheering on a couple of their compatriots in Elias Theodorou and Brad Katona, while Shane Burgos will look to continue building his resume with a win over Cub Swanson.
Read on to see who B/R's experts—Scott Harris, Nathan McCarter and Jonathan Snowden—pick for each fight on Saturday's main card.
Al Iaquinta vs. Donald Cerrone
1 of 6
Scott Harris
Heart says Cerrone, but head says Iaquinta. He will get in Cerrone's face and stifle Cowboy's signature open-range standup. This will be fun, and Iaquinta will get it done in the phone booth and perhaps on the ground.
Iaquinta, TKO, Rd. 2.
Nathan McCarter
Iaquinta asserts himself as a title contender with a big showing in the main event. Everyone knows Ragin' Al has power, but the hand speed is what surprises his opponents. Cerrone will be no different.
The first round will be a feeling-out process, and then they will pick up the pace in the second. Just as the fight begins to open up, Iaquinta will get inside the reach of Cerrone and end the bout. A clean hook on the jaw puts him down and a follow-up shot or two connects before the referee can stop the damage.
Iaquinta, KO, Rd. 2.
Jonathan Snowden
I have had a vision of this fight, so please pay careful attention.
Cerrone, very early in the second round, will get Iaquinta's goat with a kick to the body. When he tries it again, Ragin' Al will reflexively catch his foot and dump Cowboy to the ground. Like Beer Rabbit, that's just where Cerrone wants to be. He will catch Iaquinta in a triangle choke and then spend months teasing a Conor McGregor fight.
It is known.
Cerrone, Submission, Rd. 2.
Derek Brunson vs. Elias Theodorou
2 of 6
Harris
A historical fan favorite for those flowing locks and fun-loving demeanor, Theodorou hasn't won many fans lately for his conservative, low-output style. Unfortunately for the haters, the style has been notably effective in the upper middle class of the middleweight division, evidenced by an 8-2 UFC record and three straight wins.
Brunson, however, may be just the guy to catch up to Theodorou and take away his movement by putting him on his backside. Theodorou's takedown defense may be the key to this fight either way. Here's guessing Brunson wins the battle in a close contest.
Brunson, unanimous decision.
McCarter
I was high on Brunson before he was knocked out by Robert Whittaker. Since then, Brunson has been inconsistent and gotten away from what he is best at. While Theodorou is one of the best fighters to follow on Twitter, he doesn't match up well against Brunson. Don't expect a sensational bout, but Brunson should control the action en route to a win.
Brunson, unanimous decision.
Snowden
This fight will take place against the cage and be a battle of Brunson's above-average takedowns and Theodorou's above-average takedown defense.
It won't be pretty.
Brunson, unanimous decision.
Cub Swanson vs. Shane Burgos
3 of 6
Harris
One of the UFC's most exciting careers may finally be drawing to a close. The great veteran Cub Swanson, 35, has dropped three straight, and now he's facing a dangerous opponent in Shane Burgos, whose resume far outstrips his name value.
Burgos is 11-1 with a 3-1 mark in the UFC. Nine of his wins came by stoppage, more or less evenly split between knockout and submission. Time will tell what happens here and whether it's the end of the line for Swanson, but the signs are there that this could be an ignominious fourth straight defeat for the potential Hall of Famer.
Burgos, submission, Rd. 3.
McCarter
I'm with Scott here. These fighters are on different trajectories, as Swanson's time as a serious threat is coming to an end and Burgos' is just beginning. This may only be a case of if Burgos can get the finish or sweeps the cards. While Swanson may still be tough enough to avoid the finish, this loss could be the final time we see him in the Octagon.
Burgos, unanimous decision.
Snowden
Cub Swanson is a good guy and a staff favorite. But we strive hard to maintain a level of objectivity (is that laughter I hear?), and I have to admit to having doubts here.
Swanson is 35 and not even a regular old 35. He's been competing at a high level for more than a decade and managed to squeeze 35 cage fights into his career. And those weren't just any cage fights—some, like his famous bout with Dooho Choi, were the kind of bouts that change an athlete's life forever.
This is all a longwinded way of arriving at the point. Swanson is the past. Burgos is the future. Sometimes it's as simple as that.
Burgos, unanimous decision.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Brad Katona vs. Merab Dvalishvili
4 of 6
Harris
Nothing against either of these fighters, but this is the kind of contest that exists to simply fill out a UFC main card. Neither man is in the top 15 of the UFC's official bantamweight rankings. So why are they here? Brad Katona came through The Ultimate Fighter. Merab Dvalishvili was discovered on the defunct web series Dana White: Lookin For a Fight. See the commonality there?
Fighting on a UFC main card used to be reserved for top fighters. Hey, enjoy the action—just know this fight is one of those ones that isn't on the main card for its objective merits.
Katona, TKO, Rd. 1.
McCarter
This is a showcase bout and nothing more. Seems like a theme almost with the first three bouts of the main card. Katona should cruise, but I am not going to predict a finish. He will sweep the cards, including a dominant round late for a 30-26 win on all the judges' cards.
Katona, unanimous decision.
Snowden
Katona won the 27th season of The Ultimate Fighter last year. The bespectacled Canadian, picked sixth out of a possible eight by coach Daniel Cormier, defied the odds to win the featherweight tournament and a UFC contract.
There was a time when winning a season of TUF punched your ticket with MMA fans and created an immediate star. But most likely, you have never heard of Katona. I'm not sure what that says about how UFC promotes fighters going forward, but it does say Katona is expected to win here, capitalizing on whatever small dose of fame he managed to picked up on Fox Sports 1.
Katona, unanimous decision.
Walt Harris vs. Sergey Spivak
5 of 6
Harris
Sergey Spivak steps in here on about a month's notice. It is Spivak's UFC debut. Still, Walt Harris' record is about as checkered as it could be—a 2-2 (1) in his past five—doesn't recommend a slam dunk here. He's a knockout machine, and that's it. Sometimes, maybe oftentimes, though, that's all you need in the heavyweight division, especially with so many other unknowns in the equation.
Harris, KO, Rd. 1.
McCarter
Give me the newcomer. Short-notice replacements are typically advised against, but this is the heavyweight division. Spivak doesn't have to cut any weight and should be in form. Harris is inconsistent at best, and the undefeated newcomer will add a little spice to the division with a debut submission win.
Spivak, submission, Rd. 2.
Snowden
Spivak is MMA's second most famous Polar Bear after the infamous Paul Varelans, on the receiving end of Marco Ruas blows that introduced early UFC fans to the concept of leg kicks. If he can't beat the likes of Harris, he will never surpass Varelans to become the Polar Bear you think of when you think of MMA Polar Bears.
No pressure.
Spivak, unanimous decision.
Marc-Andre Barriault vs. Andrew Sanchez
6 of 6
Harris
This is Marc-Andre Barriault's first UFC fight. Andrew Sanchez is 1-2 in his past three contests. That tells you all you need to know about the stakes in this event's main card opener. Barriault is quite the headhunter, so let's hope the Canadian gets to Sanchez's chin before the American gets Barriault on the mat.
Barriault, TKO, Rd. 1.
McCarter
For this to be the main card opener means that the UFC sees something in Barriault. Sanchez is not a world-beater. Nor is he a fighter with a mass of fans. The promotion is putting the Canadian in a spot to succeed, and he should be able to do just that.
Barriault, TKO, Rd. 2.
Snowden
Sanchez is another former TUF champion, but unlike Katona, whose story has yet to be told, he's been tested and found wanting. He's here to get knocked out by the next, next Georges St-Pierre, Barriault. The TKO middleweight champion can wrestle a little and can bang. That should be enough to move him up the ranks and into a bout with a fighter in the top 10 with a big win here.
Barriault, TKO, Rd. 2.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
