NBA Draft Order 2019: Updated Lottery Odds Entering Postseason

The regular season ended badly for the 14 teams that failed to make the NBA playoffs.

It means that the 2018-19 campaign was basically a failure, and the only thing they can do is start preparing for the 2019-20 season.

That means being successful in the NBA draft lottery, an event that is determined strictly by chance. Teams with the worst regular-season records have the best chance of getting the most impactful draft picks, but those picks are determined by the luck of the draw.

This year's lottery, which will be held May 14, has a chance to be one of the most dramatic in years because Duke freshman power forward Zion Williamson is likely to be the top pick.

Winning the lottery and selecting Williamson just might take a team like the New York Knicks, Phoenix Suns or Cleveland Cavaliers and turn them into a potential playoff team, or at least a team that might approach .500.

The NBA draft lottery has been altered this year in an effort to discourage teams from the practice of tanking. The Knicks, Suns and Cavs had the three worst records in the league, and all three teams have an equal chance of coming away with the top pick. 

In previous years, the Knicks would have had the best opportunity because their 17-65 record was the worst in the league. However, the Cavs and Suns both finished with 19-63 records, and they each have a 14 percent chance of winning the lottery and a 52.1 percent chance of selecting within the top four, per Tankathon.com

In previous seasons, the team with the worst record had a 25 percent chance of receiving the top pick. The team with the second-worst record had a 19.9 percent chance, while the third-worst mark gave that team a 15.6 percent chance.

Tiebreakers were held Friday to determine draft positions for teams that finished with the same regular-season records.

In that lottery, Cleveland has the No. 2 slot ahead of Phoenix, and Memphis gained the No. 7 spot ahead of Dallas at No. 8 and New Orleans at No. 9. Additionally, Charlotte has the No. 12 spot ahead of Miami at No. 13 and Sacramento at No. 14.

Here's a look at the odds for all the non-playoff teams. Teams that earned playoff positions are not eligible for the lottery.

Team, Percentage chance of top-four pick, Percentage chance of No. 1 Pick

1. New York, 52.1, 14.0
2. Cleveland 52.1, 14.0
3. Phoenix, 52.1, 14.0
4. Chicago, 48.0, 12.5
5. Atlanta, 42.1, 10.5
6. Washington, 37.2, 9.0
7. New Orleans, 26.3, 6.0
8. Memphis, 26.3, 6.0
9. Dallas, 26.3, 6.0
10. Minnesota, 13.9, 3.0
11. Los Angeles Lakers, 9.4, 2.0
12. Charlotte, 4.8, 1.0
13. Miami, 4.8, 1.0
14. Sacramento, 4.8, 1.0

Draft positions for playoff teams

15. Detroit
16. Orlando
17. Brooklyn
18. Indiana
19. San Antonio
20. LA Clippers (to Boston via Memphis)
21. Oklahoma City
22. Boston
23. Utah
24. Philadelphia4
25. Portland
26. Houston (to Cleveland)
27. Denver (to Brooklyn)
28. Golden State
29. Toronto (to San Antonio)
30. Milwaukee

There have been several first-round picks that have been traded. These picks often have protection, and if the original owner gets lucky with the lottery, it may not be conveyed until a future year. 

The Dallas Mavericks' first-round selection will go to the Atlanta Hawks if that pick is not in the top five. If it is, the same conditions are in place for the 2020 draft.

If the Mavs still hold on to the pick following the 2020 draft, the pick is only protected for a top-three choice on 2021 and 2022. If it hasn't been conveyed by then, the 2023 pick is unprotected.

The Boston Celtics have the Memphis Grizzlies' first-round selection but not if it falls in the top eight. If it does, the Celtics would get the 2020 Memphis first-round selection unless it comes in the top six. Under those circumstances, Boston would get an unprotected pick in 2021.

Boston also has Sacramento's pick, and they will retain it unless the Kings win the lottery with their 1 percent chance and get the No. 1 selection. Under those circumstances, the Philadelphia 76ers would get the No. 1 pick.