UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 Odds, Tickets, Predictions and Pre-Weigh-in Hype
Khabib Nurmagomedov will have a close eye on the main event of UFC 236 when Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier vie for the interim title belt in his lightweight division.
Holloway looks to add the title to his already impressive career. The featherweight champion will be making his first foray into the UFC's lightweight division. Standing across the cage from him will be a somewhat similar foe in Dustin Poirier.
The Diamond handed Holloway his first professional loss all the way back in 2012, winning by first-round submission when both fighters were featherweights.
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The card features a doubleheader of interim title fights. Kelvin Gastelum and Israel Adesanya will essentially fight to become the No. 1 contender to Robert Whittaker's middleweight crown.
Gastelum was robbed of his opportunity to fight for the belt, while Adesanya will look to continue his meteoric rise to the top of the division.
Tickets: StubHub
Odds via Action Network
Main Card (10 p.m. ET, PPV on ESPN+)
- Max Holloway (-225, bet $100 to win $44.44); Dustin Poirier (+175, bet $100 to win $175)
- Kelvin Gastelum (+145); Israel Adesanya (-175)
- Eryk Anders (-200); Khalil Rountree (+160)
- Alan Jouban (-120); Dwight Grant (-110)
- Ovince Saint Preux (-110); Nikita Krylov (-120)
Prelims (8 p.m., ESPN)
- Jalin Turner (-120); Matt Frevola (-110)
- Wilson Reis (+130); Alexandre Pantoja (-160)
- Max Griffin (-115); Zelim Imadaev (-115)
- Boston Salmon (-135); Khalid Taha (+105)
Early Prelims (6:15 p.m. ET, Fight Pass)
- Curtis Millender (+105); Belal Muhammad (-135)
- Montel Jackson (-550); Andre Soukhamthath (+375)
- Lauren Mueller (+140); Poliana Botelho (-170)
- Brandon Davis (-165); Randy Costa (+135)
Holloway Looking to Exact Revenge Against Poirier
The main event is technically a rematch, but it's hard to glean anything from the first fight, which took place nearly seven years ago.
Neither fighter looks anything like they did back then.
"The best way to describe it is, like, me right now, I would kill that guy," Holloway said of the older version of himself, per Brett Okamoto of ESPN. "I would literally put him in a cemetery. There is a cemetery down the road from my house. I'd probably go visit him every day."
There's no denying his growth. The Hawaiian went from 3-3 in his first six UFC fights to a 13-fight win streak that has spanned four years of action.
But Poirier has done his fair share of evolving as well. The former featherweight has just one loss since 2015, with wins over Eddie Alvarez, Justin Gaethje and Anthony Pettis in his last three fights.
He too has made improvements, and his coach and friend Mike Brown believes he should get a title shot.
"I think it's the perfect time," Brown said, per Mike Bohn of MMAjunkie. "I'm glad it took this long. Maybe he could've won the belt a year or two ago, but I'm really glad he's had this time to mature and really come into his own. He's found his game, found his own. He's had a great career, some amazing fights, but every time he's lost he's made the right corrections. He's gone back and analyzed it and come back much, much stronger. Now he's without a doubt at his absolute prime. He's a monster."
As the relatively close odds indicate, this one is set to be a barn-burner.
Holloway is an otherworldly striker as a featherweight, but he isn't necessarily a one-shot power broker. His damage tends to be cumulative, as he continues to win exchange after exchange until his opponent isn't standing anymore.
Poirier has shown that his power translates well at 155 pounds. He has three first-round finishes at lightweight and has finished his last three opponents.
Holloway is the favorite because he is the more skilled fighter, but we haven't seen what Holloway looks like at 155 pounds. His defense isn't necessarily elite. He absorbs over four significant strikes per minute, according to UFC Stats, and that's a lot to take against someone with Poirier's power.
The Diamond could be in a good position to pull an upset and win the interim title.
Prediction: Poirier via second-round TKO
Gastelum Believes He Can Will Himself to Victory over Adesanya
The interim middleweight title fight is a captivating matchup. In one corner stands a kickboxing wiz who has quickly become the hottest commodity in the division. In the other, a stocky former welterweight who just finds ways to win.
Adesanya is the much more technical fighter, with his extensive kickboxing career and undefeated record in the Octagon, but Gastelum believes it's his will to win that will make the difference on Saturday.
"That's pretty much my thing in every fight," he said, per Thomas Gerbasi of UFC.com. "I feel like I want it more than most of these guys. When I step into the Octagon, I think that's what sets me apart from them. I'm not necessarily the better fighter; I just want it more. I show more grit, I show more will, and I'm not the fastest guy, the most skilled guy, but my will is superior to a lot of these guys."
That attitude will go a long way in giving him a chance to pull off a minor upset against Adesanya. If he wants to come out on top, he'll need to turn the fight ugly—he doesn't have the speed, polish or power of his opponent.
In Adesanya's last fight against Anderson Silva, it was evident that his striking is elite. However, his killer instinct didn't appear to be with him. He always seemed in control of the fight, but he never looked to finish it.
It won't be a living legend standing across from Adesanya this time, though, and he's cautioning fans who may be thinking they'll see the same guy in the cage.
"I think it shows that people are starting to understand high-level martial arts on a different level," he said of his masterful performance against Silva, per Gerbasi. "I always bring something different, so my advice to people when they watch me is expect the unexpected."
Gastelum will be the most difficult opponent Adesanya has seen in his career to this point. Beating what's left of Silva might not have meant much, but a win for the interim title belt is the most he can prove at this point in his career, and he has an excellent chance of doing just that.
Prediction: Adesanya via third-round TKO
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