Virginia vs. Texas Tech 2019: Odds Advice, Key Player Predictions for Title Game

The over-under line for Monday's men's basketball national championship is so low that it feels like we're being dared to bet the over. 

The point total for Virginia's meeting with Texas Tech is set at 118.5, while the Cavaliers are a one-point favorite.

Even though both teams are known for their defense, under 118.5 is still a risky bet in college basketball since two programs are typically capable of scoring 60 points in a game. 

The hope for over bettors is for some of the top players on both rosters to erupt on the offensive end and make Monday's title clash at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis one to remember from an offensive perspective. 

Odds Advice

It feels like the over-under of 118.5 is low even by the standards of Virginia and Texas Tech. 

Three of Virginia's NCAA tournament games have hit over 120 points, including the Elite Eight win over Purdue and the Final Four triumph against Auburn. 

If you apply Texas Tech's NCAA tournament scores to the title game line, three of its games would have hit the over. 

However, two of the last victories by the Red Raiders have come in contests with 114 and 112 total points. 

If you are backing Texas Tech to win as the underdog, it's probably best to go with the under since the Red Raiders held Michigan to 44 points in the Sweet 16 and limited Michigan State to 51 points in the Final Four.

If you're leaning toward Virginia, there should be a little more hope for the over because of the success achieved by Purdue and Auburn in stretches against the Cavaliers defense. 

When it comes to the spread, you are essentially making a straight-up bet since the line is one point. 

But if you're backing Virginia to take the championship, you will likely sweat out your bet, as it has won each of its last three games by five points or fewer. 

Key Player Predictions

Ty Jerome (20 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists) 

Ty Jerome has been Virginia's most important player during its run to the title game. 

In Saturday's win over Auburn, the Tigers made a run on the Cavaliers once Jerome exited the floor with four fouls. 

In the last two contests, Jerome's totaled 45 points, with 21 coming against Auburn, and he's also been an asset in other facets of the game with 14 rebounds and 13 assists. 

Tom Pennington/Getty Images

If Jerome isn't taking shots, he's finding a way to set up his teammates for a successful venture toward the basket, which is why he should be Texas Tech's top target in its defensive game plan. 

Even though the Red Raiders held Michigan State to 51 points, they conceded the majority of those points to guards. 

Cassius Winston and Matt McQuaid combined for 28 points, and that's a positive sign for Jerome, Kyle Guy and the Virginia guards who can shoot the ball better from three-point range.

Jerome has knocked down at least two three-pointers in each of Virginia's five NCAA tournament games, and he's hit four in each of the last two contests. 

If he can find the same rhythm from three-point range against Texas Tech's stingy defense, Jerome should be able to record his third straight 20-point performance. 

Matt Mooney (17 points, 4 assists, 3 rebounds) 

For the first time in the NCAA tournament, Jarrett Culver wasn't Texas Tech's leading scorer Saturday. 

Matt Mooney, who has had a consistent shooting hand alongside Culver, led the Red Raiders with 22 points against Michigan State.

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

If Virginia keys in on Culver Monday, Mooney will have to step up once again to hit a few key shots in an attempt to create separation from the Cavaliers. 

Mooney knocked down four three-point shots Saturday, but he is also capable of cutting inside the arc to take higher-percentage shots. 

The shooting stroke of the senior guard has improved game by game in the NCAA tournament, as he went from scoring nine points in the first round against Northern Kentucky to leading the Red Raiders in points versus Michigan State. 

If Mooney is able to rise to the occasion again, the Red Raiders won't need Culver to take every big shot, which could ease the pressure on the star guard and lead to more relaxed play out of the backcourt against Virginia's defense.  

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.

Statistics obtained from ESPN.com.