NBA Draft Lottery 2019: Predictions, Updated Standings for No. 1 Pick
Playoff spots are on the line during the final week of the 2018-19 season, but so is positioning for the 2019 NBA draft lottery.
While the New York Knicks and Phoenix Suns have secured the greatest odds possible for the No. 1 pick―and a shot at Duke superstar Zion Williamson―one franchise will join the group. It will be either the Cleveland Cavaliers or Chicago Bulls.
There's also an understated battle happening for the sixth and seventh slots. Both of those positions hold a 34-plus percent chance at a top-four pick, but everything lower is 24 percent or less.
When still in contention for the playoffs, winning is always the goal. During the final week of the regular season, though, losing is more beneficial for eliminated teams.
NBA Standings
Updated Lottery Outlook
1. New York Knicks (15-63)
2. Phoenix Suns (18-61)
3. Cleveland Cavaliers (19-59)
4. Chicago Bulls (22-57)
5. Atlanta Hawks (29-50)
T-6. Memphis Grizzlies (31-47)
T-6. Atlanta Hawks―via Dallas Mavericks (31-47)
T-8. New Orleans Pelicans (32-47)
T-8. Washington Wizards (32-47)
10. Los Angeles Lakers (35-44)
11. Minnesota Timberwolves (35-43)
12. Charlotte Hornets (36-42)
13. Miami Heat (38-40)
14. Boston Celtics―via Sacramento Kings (39-40)
Note: A random drawing will determine tiebreakers after the season.
Predictions
Trio of Duke Players Are Top-5 Picks
Zion Williamson is going No. 1 overall.
At this point, it's unreasonable to disagree. The ACC Player of the Year ended his season with 22.6 points, 8.9 rebounds, 2.1 steals and 1.8 blocks per game while shooting 68 percent from the floor. His combination of volume and efficiency is unparalleled.
The 6'7", 285-pound forward cast a sizable shadow over his teammates, but RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish are top prospects, too.
Barrett is likely to hear his name called at No. 3 overall behind Williamson and Murray State guard Ja Morant. Barrett averaged 22.6 points, 7.6 rebounds and 4.3 assists this season.
Playmaking ability is a key appeal for Barrett. According to HoopMath.com, 67.1 percent of his two-pointers were unassisted. One hope for Barrett's future is his three-point efficiency improves as he receives more spot-up opportunities in the NBA. Off-dribble long-range attempts were not his strength at Duke.
After all, the draft is all about professional teams believing in their ability to develop prospects. And whichever franchise picks Reddish will be relying heavily on its coaching staff.
Reddish is most effective as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, but playing next to Williamson and Barrett limited that strength. Reddish has a smooth shooting stroke yet trudged to a 33.3 percent clip from three-point range and 35.6 overall.
Nevertheless, his creative potential, workable shot and superb defense will attract an NBA team early in the 2019 draft.
Dallas Pick Conveys to Atlanta
To acquire Luke Doncic last year, the Mavericks traded Atlanta a top-five protected 2019 first-round pick and draft rights to Trae Young. Dallas may narrowly miss out on that condition.
Barring a winless finish to the 2018 campaign while the Hawks go undefeated, the Mavericks will end somewhere from sixth to ninth in the final lottery standings.
At the All-Star break, that range was a clear possibility but not a foregone conclusion. Dallas had the NBA's ninth-worst winning percentage yet trailed seven teams by only two victories. A short winning streak could've put the Mavs in the late lottery.
Dallas never stumbled into one of those, considering it's trudged to a 5-16 since mid-February. But that still wasn't enough to catch the NBA's five-worst teams.
With two games against Memphis and one opposite Phoenix, the Mavs will probably pick up a couple more victories. Any rise in the actual league standings will mean Dallas' chances of a top-four choice decrease by more than 10 percent.
Unless the Mavs receive a lottery miracle, Atlanta will get their pick.
Follow Bleacher Report writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR
