2009 NBA Preview: 16 Relatively Cool Storylines

I’m not going to lie to you. I debated long and hard about my preseason NBA column. Originally, I’d planned on doing a full preview; you know, one of those extensive, team-by-team, division-by-division guidelines. But, I had a striking revelation: You don’t need me to tell you all that. That’s what ESPN is for. Not a fan? Try Fox Sports. Doesn’t interest you? Hit up Sports Illustrated. Still, no? Well then stop reading this, because you’re not a true fan. I’m just kidding. Sort of.

What I’ve decided to provide instead is a rather informal guide to the NBA season, full of useless nonsense and misguided tips. I hope you find it as interesting as I do. If not, however, I don’t blame you. Here we go.

The Return of Hibachi!

When healthy, Gilbert Arenas is one of the most exciting and exhilarating players in the entire league. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been healthy since the '07-'08 season. Reports are that Agent Zero has fully recovered from a torn up knee and is ready to return to the All-NBA-quality guard we grew accustomed to seeing.

In his last full season, Arenas put up a staggering 28 PTS 6 AST 5 REB and two steals per game. Those are insane, LeBron-type numbers. With proven vets Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler around, as well as the recently acquired sharpshooter Mike Miller, Arenas will find himself in one-on-one situations, where he is at his best.

Randy Foye was an excellent pick up at the point. He will allow Arenas to sit and rest when he needs. Always having thrived where he can break down defenders and pull up, Arenas will once again have the opportunity to do so.

I expect a huge All-Star campaign for the former Arizona Wildcat, and for the Wizards to be back in the playoffs.

The Rise of Portland

The Trail Blazers are no joke. We saw a glimpse of it last season when they took the Rockets to a game seven in the first round of the playoffs. The core nucleus of Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge got its first taste of the postseason, and now they want more—a lot more.

Roy has elevated his game to the level of legitimate top 10 players, and Aldridge has become the best young big man in the NBA; yes, he’s better than Al Jefferson. Given that numbers wise, this isn’t the case, why do I say this, you ask?

One, Aldridge doesn’t have a bad knee, but you have to take into consideration he’s on a far better team and isn’t the first option. Plus, his game extends well away from the block, where he has more range and the ability to step outside and drain 16-footers with ease, while also running the floor better. I’ll take the former Longhorn all day.

The addition of Andre Miller will be huge. Miller is the point guard this team has needed. He can break down defenses and find open shooters (7.4 career assists per game). While I like Steve Blake, he really limited them in the half-court oriented nature of the playoffs with his lack of explosiveness and shaky “D.”

Miller instantly takes ball-handling pressure off of Roy, allowing him to conserve energy and focus more on scoring than facilitating. Spaniard Rudy Fernandez proved to be one of the best perimeter shooters in the game, and a healthy Martell Webster provides yet another kick out option for drivers or double-teamed bigs.

Joel Przybilla is a terrific rebounder (best defensive rebounder in the NBA), and the continual growth of Greg Oden (who I think is primed for a good year) on the block makes this team even better. Having a seasoned and successful coach in Nate McMillan doesn’t hurt, either.

Some people have voiced concerns over Roy’s anger that with the arrival of Miller, he won’t have the ball in his hands as much, particularly down the stretch of games. I don’t buy into it. Miller is as pure a point guard as you’ll find, and at the end of the day, Roy is the franchise player. Yes, he has a great handle, and some of his best attributes are his ability to break people down to either score, dish, or get to the line. Verdict? If he wants the ball, he’ll get the ball.

All in all, the Blazers are a formidable club, and one of the few who could potentially push the Lakers out west.

Just How Long Will the Lionel Hollins Experiment Last in Memphis?

Marc Iavaroni got canned with only four games left during last season’s debacle, and Hollins has a career 18-46 head coaching record. The senseless addition of Allen Iverson will only take away from the development of O.J. Mayo and Rudy Gay—two of my favorite young wings in the game today.

The Grizz have a nice blend of young talent to compliment Mayo and Gay. Darrell Arthur needs to improve his shooting stroke, but should be a nice player. I still haven’t given up on Mike Conley, although he better show something else this season. Marc Gasol is surprisingly effective down low, and will be in the league for a long time.

Sam Young—the rookie out of Pitt—is going to be a solid pro and was a steal in the second round.

Zach Randolph isn’t the most physically gifted four man around, but you know he’s good for 20 and 10 almost every night.

And, Hasheem Thabeet—who I believe was taken way too early—will at the very least be a shot-blocking presence for years to come.

However, this team is still a few years away from being a winner. Young talent is great, but any franchise empty of quality veterans can never win at this level. The Southwest Division is insanely competitive, with Dallas, San Antonio, Houston, and New Orleans all fighting for the playoffs.

If a 24-win season wasn’t enough for the coach to stick around last year, then a 28-win season certainly won’t do it this year. Hollins could be gone by March.

The three second-year guards that will kill it: Eric Gordon (Clippers), Mario Chalmers (Heat), and Russell Westbrook (Thunder) Are All Going to Have Enormous Sophomore Seasons

Gordon really surprised me last season with his break-down ability. I knew he could shoot it, but he is much more athletic than I thought, and he gets to the cup well. He has such a strong base that it seems he could shoot for days and never get tired. Gordon shoots a high percentage, defends well, and gets to the line.

Chalmers is in the perfect system with the Heat. He has learned how to play off of Dwayne Wade very well, while also assuming most of the point guard duties. One of the premier thieves in the game (two steals per game last season), Chalmers is also an improving long-range shooter who understands how to find others off his drives. In his second season, he will assert himself as one of the best young points in the NBA.

Westbrook is the most exciting of the trio. He has a killer first step and good handle for being just 20 years old. The former UCLA Bruin is a tremendous leaper (he once dunked on me, although that's not saying much), who doesn’t only dish out oops, but is a rare PG who can actually go get them, as well.

The knocks on him have been that he doesn’t shoot well (40 percent) and turns the ball over too much (almost 3.5). This is the case for most young one’s, however, and it’s only a matter of time before he learns how to combat these issues. Westbrook is the closest to becoming an All-Star out of the bunch. I project him to average around 17-6-5 this season. Undoubtedly he will become an All-Star within two to three years, and has a chance to be very special.

“KD for Three”

You’re going to hear a lot of this, so be prepared. Kevin Durant took the league by storm last season when he averaged 25 points and seven rebounds. At 6'9", he can handle the ball, drive, post-up, defend, and shoot over just about anybody. When he came out of Texas, I thought he resembled a young Tracy McGrady, but he has progressed so much more quickly, it’s scary to compare him at all.

This kid is as talented as they come, and he will only continue to improve as he gets stronger and continues to understand the game better. He is eerily athletic and ridiculously long, so I think improved defense is probably the next major step to take. That said, I think KD will lead the league in scoring this year. No question in my mind he makes his first All-Star team. Better yet, this kid will be an MVP at least once before he hangs up his Nike’s.

The Re-rise of the Spurs

If they’re going to make one more run with Timmy D, Tony Parker, and Manu, this is the year.

How DeJuan Blair fell to them at pick No. 37 still baffles me. Blair was a monster at Pitt; a rebounding machine who slipped because he isn’t tall enough to be an NBA center, and isn’t quite athletic enough to be an NBA four-man.

But the fact is, the kid can flat out play. He leverages his body as well as anybody, and uses his long wingspan (7'3") to finish around the hoop and snatch rebounds others can’t get to. Blair makes an immediate impact for San Antonio.

The free agent signing of veteran big man Antonio McDyess couldn’t have come at a better time. Duncan is still a premier pivot, but at 33, with the minutes he’s logged, how many more All-Star-type seasons does he have left? McDyess—with Blair—will help shoulder the load inside far better than Fabricio Oberto and Matt Bonner.

Lastly, how can you not love the addition of athletic wing Richard Jefferson? Jefferson is the ultimate slasher that gets to the line, can step outside and shoot the three. Losing Bruce Bowen to retirement doesn’t hurt as much now that the Spurs have added RJ, who is a capable defender in his own right.

They may be aging and they certainly don’t present the sexiest brand of basketball, but the Spurs have the tools and experience to make another title run.

Welcome to the NBA, Terrence Williams

T-Will is one of my favorite players from this year’s draft, and with the departure of Vince Carter from New Jersey, he will fit in nicely with two other talented young Net guards, Devin Harris and Courtney Lee. Williams has a wondrous skill set for his size, and can play both the two and three positions. He has a high basketball IQ, especially at the offensive end, where he sees the floor extremely well.

Williams is a superb passer and unselfish player who can help you win even when he’s not scoring. This may be a stretch, but he reminds me a lot of Andre Iguodala when he first came out of Arizona, given all of the things he can do for you. He won’t start right away, but expect this youngster to help out immediately for Lawrence Frank’s club.

Time to Shine

Before last season, I said Danny Granger would explode. Now I didn’t say he’d go all-world and turn into one of the league’s leading scorers, but I knew the former Lobo was ready to take over in Indiana.

My vote for this year’s coming out star is New York Knicks forward Wilson Chandler. The third-year pro from DePaul is a really nice fit for Mike D’Antoni, given his aptitude to run the floor and finish in transition. Chandler is a strong wing player with good dexterity who uses his 6'9" frame very well. He can defend two positions (almost 80 blocks last season), and I like how he uses his quickness to blow by bigger guys on the perimeter.

Chandler can knock down the three, but his best asset is attacking the basket, where he is long and athletic enough to finish with contact. Pencil Chandler in for 17-7 this year, as he's well on his way to becoming one of the better threes in the NBA.

Another guy to watch closely is Philly’s Lou Williams. With the departure of Andre Miller, Williams finally gets his shot to run the one in the ‘Illadelph. Having skipped college, he is already in his fifth season, but is still just 22. He is more of a scoring point who is known more for instant offense than anything else, but I expect good things out of the Georgia native.

He handles the ball extremely well, has quick hands, and can get by anybody (in 24 minutes per game last year, he got to the line almost 400 times). The leadership of Elton Brand and growth of the versatile Thaddeus Young and Maurice Speights—plus the all-around gifts of Iguodala—will force Williams to mature quickly as the 76ers’ floor general.

Lastly, pay close attention to Anthony Randolph in the Golden State. The 20-year-old is a freak athlete with an unruly wingspan that extends far beyond his 6'10" frame. He is still rather frail, but this kid is a game-changing shot blocker with feline leaping ability. He is still very raw offensively, but under Don Nelson he will thrive in transition and get lots of easy hoops. He needs to beef up and show more mettle in the paint, but he should improve on the six rebounds-per-game he pulled in last season. He’s still a few years away, but keep your eyes on this kid.

Watch Out for the Clippers

Really? Really. Yes, I realize what I’ve just said.

The Clippers haven’t exactly inspired confidence over the years, but I actually think they’re going to be pretty decent this year. For LA’s ugly stepchild, everything hinges on the play of Baron Davis. His first season back home was a nightmare, full of injuries and poor play, but Boom Dizzle is back and ready to silence his critics. Davis has lost weight and refocused his attention to being the attacking point guard we remember him being with Golden State.

Second-year pro Eric Gordon (see above) is as solid a young player as you’ll find, as is Al Thornton, who won’t see as many looks as last season, but fits in well with the up-tempo scheme. One of my concerns is that the ball-controlling Davis will stunt the growth of Gordon, because Gordon also needs the ball in his hands. However, I believe Diddy realizes that more success comes with a young two-guard like Gordon, who will finish plays and ultimately get Davis more assists.

The Clips made the right decision ridding themselves of the cancerously selfish Zach Randolph, who despite his 20-10 stat lines, will never be the fulcrum of a winning team. Chris Kaman may not reach the 16 and 13 level he did during his contract year in 2007, but he is still one of the better centers around.

And Marcus Camby—assuming he remains healthy—is as versatile a big man as there is in the NBA, given his ability to run the floor and blocks shots (two blocks per game last season).

And, don’t even get me started on Blake Griffin, who is a virtual lock for rookie of the year. Griffin is a flat-out monster who will contribute immediately for Mike Dunleavy. He is a more athletic version of Carlos Boozer and a slightly smaller Amare Stoudemire. High praise, yes, but he is the real deal.

Will the Clips compete for a championship? No, god no. But the Clippers have a chance to vastly improve and make a serious run at the postseason. It may as well be a title in Clipper-land.

Will CP3 Stay in New Orleans?

The Hornets had a disappointing first-round exit in the 2009 playoffs, and seemed to have lost the momentum they built in 2008 when they took the Spurs to a decisive Game Seven in the second round. Paul is undoubtedly one of the best players in the league—a true superstar—but if the Hornets want to keep him, they are going to have to start making some moves.

In theory, trading away Tyson Chandler for Emeka Okafor was a good decision, but Chandler was Paul’s boy and a great pick and roll option for CP. Despite also being a quality shot blocker, Okafor is more of a gritty guy who gets most of his points cleaning up the glass, not by creating his own shot or being an integral part of the offense.

Peja, while still being a long-range poacher, is at the end of his career, and can no longer create off the dribble like he used to. Furthermore, he is one of the worst perimeter defenders in the NBA, and is the epitome of a one-trick pony, in that he doesn’t rebound or pass well, either.

Trading Rasual Butler was a mistake. He is a nice young wing who defends and shoots the ball. David West is a very good player at the four and ideal pick and pop mate for Paul, but that’s about it.

For the most part, the rest of the team is very average: Julian Wright doesn’t seem to have grown at all since coming out of Kansas, Mo-Pet is 73 years old and Hilton Armstrong has actually gotten worse since he was a rookie. An unhappy CP3 doesn’t bode well for New Orleans, and trading away his guy Tyson Chandler may have been too big an error to forgive.

DeShawn Stevenson is Clinically Insane

We saw a glimpse of this when he let his beard grow out about two feet last season, when he was trying to outlast Drew Gooden for the longest hair extremity in the league. Of course his rookie year out of high school he was charged, and acquitted, for statutory rape, and there was that strange shooting at his Orlando home.

But Stevenson’s recent extravaganza has gotten to the point of downright scary and disturbing.

With his neck ink of Abraham Lincoln in between two number fives (Lincoln is on the five dollar bill), the guy literally looks like a member of America’s Most Wanted . He somehow managed to make Mike Tyson’s facial ink rather pedestrian, something I never thought I’d say…about anyone.

Under any other circumstance, getting fined for a tattoo would seem impossible, but this misstep by the Wizard guard deserves some kind of fine or something. The image of the league has improved with young and classy stars LeBron and D-Wade. This certainly would be the opposite of that. Hard to know for certain, but I don’t even think Gilbert himself would approve of this.

The Boston Celtics’ Final Run

When KG went down and then missed the playoffs last season, we saw how fragile this team was. The truth is, they are very old (Garnett 33, Pierce 32, and Allen 34), and their only true building block at this stage is point guard Rajon Rondo, whose development has been shockingly fast.

With Allen, Rondo, and Pierce all set to become free agents next summer, this may be the final chance for the Celtics to make another title run. Kendrick Perkins is a starting five, but is not a foundation. Rasheed Wallace was a good pick-up, but he’s 35 and probably has one or two productive seasons left.

I like the acquisition of Marquis Daniels from Indiana. He is a good defender who can score a bit as well, but not a starter on a contending team. Spot-shooting Eddie House is only as good as the double-teams KG gets.

The rest of the Celts’ bench is one of the worst collections of young players in the league (Brian Scalabrine, JR Giddens, Tony Allen, Shelden Williams, Bill Walker, Glen Davis). The best-case scenario for Boston is to re-sign Rondo—which will be a monumental deal—give a short-term deal to Pierce, and let Allen walk. The Rondo deal—in correlation with KG and Pierce’s deal—will make it very difficult for Danny Ainge to go after a significant two guard until at least the 2012 season, when Garnett’s deal expires.

The bottom line is that this an aging team faced with a win-now-or-not-for-a-long-time situation, given that four of their five best players are all at least 32. After this season and maybe next, they are back to mediocrity in Beantown.

Staying Out East, What Has Happened to the Detroit Pistons?

Once regarded as a top-notch exec, GM Joe Dumars continued his slew of poor decisions this summer when he gave a combined $90 million to Charlie Villanueva and Ben Gordon. Don’t get me wrong. Both are nice players, but neither is a building block. If you were going to spend this money, why not wait until next summer, when we’ll witness the greatest free-agent class in league history?

You Know How Players Tend to Chronically Overachieve During Their Contract Years?

This is the year it will happen more than ever.

Here’s a list of the top players whose contacts will expire after the season: Amare Stoudemire, Dirk Nowitzki, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Dwayne Wade, LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Yao Ming, Joe Johnson, Steve Nash, Manu Ginobili, Michael Redd, Josh Howard, Rajon Rondo (restricted), and Rudy Gay (restricted).

These guys are already established All-Star caliber players. If they elevate their games even more, who knows what will happen. Guys will be putting up 50 here, 40 there, then 55—it could get crazy! This definitely makes this season one of the most exciting in recent memory.

The Suns Are the Suns

Phoenix is going back to the brand of basketball that made it the most electrifying team in the league. Do you know what that means? The re-emergence of Steve Nash!

Nash struggled playing Terry Porter’s half-court style last season. Ironically, because he isn’t the quickest point, he actually plays better in an open, up-and-down system; where he excels passing the ball and already has a head start to go by defenders.

The Suns' lethal combination of Nash and Amare will wreak havoc on the opposition, and although they won’t win a championship, they will most definitely be more fun to watch.

Artest Is a Laker!

I’ve had issues with this deal since day one.  The Lakers were a winner with Trevor Ariza, who is younger than Artest by nearly six years and isn’t clinically insane. Artest certainly brings more toughness to LA, but is all of that baggage worth it?

Ariza is becoming a consistent outside threat, even more so than Artest, and is a great defender in his own right. He may not be the lock-down defender that his counterpart is, but he already took pressure off Kobe last year by guarding No. 1 scorers, and is a constant threat to disrupt passing lanes. I love his length at both ends of the floor, and I do think that losing it will hurt this team.

Some say Artest has lost a step and isn’t quite the stopper he used to be. The problem with the Lakers last season was stopping dribble penetration, especially in the middle of the floor, so Artest better be ready to contain. The truth is, he has never been a true star, so it shouldn’t be an issue for him to take a back seat to Bryant and Pau Gasol.

However, last year's  Laker team was built on chemistry and solid team play, and I wonder if that will be lost with the attitude of Artest now in the picture. Despite his brilliance at the defensive end and ability to score, he’s never been a winner at any stage of his career (college or pro).

I disagree with the move by Mitch Kupchak—who has been spot on otherwise—and as a result, I don’t believe this is a Laker team poised to repeat.