Super Bowl Point Spread 2019: Moneyline, Over/Under for Patriots vs. Rams

After an initial call to make the Los Angeles Rams the favorite in Super Bowl LIII, the New England Patriots have held steady as favorites for 13-plus days.

Kickoff is just hours away, and the Patriots remain 2.5-point favorites to win the game, while the total in the game is 56 points, per OddsShark.

The Rams were installed as one-point favorites minutes after the matchup between the two teams was finalized, but that lasted all of 17 minutes. At that point, the Patriots had commanded a disproportionate amount of the early money, and oddsmakers switched course and made New England a one-point favorite.

That lasted a few hours, and the line got to 2.5 points, and it has been fairly steady since then. The Patriots are also -150 favorites on the moneyline, while the Rams are +130 underdogs. Those betting on the Patriots have to wager $150 to win $100, while Rams backers risk $100 to win $130.

Steven Senne/Associated Press

The Patriots may be the team that much of the country loves to hate, but New England owner Robert Kraft recognizes that the majority of those feelings are the result of the Patriots wining so often. This is the ninth Super Bowl appearance of the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady era. 

"For us to get to the point in less than two decades where people are rooting against us because we've won, that’s a high-class problem and I hope we keep it going for quite awhile," Kraft said, per Ben Volin of the Boston Globe. "I'm actually honored by it."

Going into the Super Bowl, the Patriots have gotten a huge lift from their running game, and it would be somewhat surprising if they didn't continue to use their ground game to establish an early advantage.

Rookie Sony Michel has rushed for 242 yards with a 4.6 yards-per-carry mark, and he has five rushing touchdowns in the postseason. Rex Burkhead has just 53 rushing yards in New England's two postseason games, but he has three rushing touchdowns.

If the Patriots can establish a strong running game against defensive linemen Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh, that should make life much easier for Brady. The Rams are going to have to be cautious with their pass rush for fear of inviting big plays from Michel.

However, Suh and Donald are confident they can cause problems for the Patriots.

"We've been able to have fun together and create a lot of havoc," Suh said of his pairing with Donald, per Gary Klein of the Los Angeles Times. "I hope we have the opportunity on this stage to shine our brightest."

Once the Patriots go to the air, Brady has a pair of productive receivers in Julian Edelman and running back James White. Rob Gronkowski has not been a huge factor compared to previous seasons, but he is selling out on every play and could be a game-changing factor against the Rams.

When the Rams have the ball, all eyes will be on All-Pro running back Todd Gurley. Even though Gurley and the Rams have insisted that the running back is healthy, he missed the last two games of the regular season with a knee injury, and after a 115-yard effort against the Dallas Cowboys in the divisional playoffs, Gurley had just 10 rushing yards against the New Orleans Saints.

Backup running back C.J. Anderson has had 39 carries in the postseason, while Gurley has had 20. There's no way the best running back in the league should be outworked by a nearly two-carries-to-one ratio.

If Gurley is not at his best, that works in New England's favor. They will be able to put more pressure on quarterback Jared Goff, and he could make several mistakes. Goff is not as sharp in his decision-making process as Brady, and a slow start could be problematic if the Rams are forced to play catch-up football for a majority of the game.