Super Bowl Odds 2019: Patriots vs. Rams Spread, Over/Under Betting Guide

As much as fans love to hate the New England Patriots, their constant Super Bowl presence has delivered top-notch entertainment.

In eight Super Bowls involving quarterback Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick, the winner has prevailed by an average of 4.25 points. Last year's 41-33 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles represented the highest margin of victory, topping the prior appearance's 34-28 overtime triumph over the Atlanta Falcons.

New England's historic run started with a 20-17 upset over the then-St. Louis Rams to become 2001 champions. Seventeen years later, Brady's crew is favored to defeat another explosive Rams offense. Per OddsShark, the line has steadied slightly in favor of the AFC champions after briefly opening in the opposite direction. 

While the over/under has slipped below a record-setting rate, it's still a lofty sum for a matchup between a red-hot Patriots offense against The Greatest Show on Surf. Here's a look at how to attack those betting lines.

Super Bowl 53 Odds

Spread: Patriots (-2.5)

Over/Under: 56.5 

Betting Guide

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According to Vegas Insider, no Super Bowl has featured an over/under line above 57, a mark the Patriots and Falcons cleared after regulation two years ago. 

Sunday's showdown was initially poised to set a new benchmark, but the line has dipped to 56.5 as of Friday. Per OddsShark, 54 percent of bettors have taken the over action.

The Patriots' history supports that decision. After both title meetings with the New York Giants went way under, each of New England's past three Super Bowl outings cleared the over, and five of the NFL's past six grand finales went over, with an average of 53 points per game.

On their way to Atlanta, the Patriots posted 78 postseason points while yielding 59 in victories over the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs. They have averaged 34.3 points over their past eight postseason games.

Despite those numbers, they're not even this matchup's top offense. The Rams finished the regular season second to the Chiefs in points (32.9) and total yards (421.1) per game. Their only tally below 23 points occurred on a windy night at Chicago in December.

Jared Goff now gets New England's No. 22-ranked defense inside a dome. Yet there are reasons to wonder if the Rams can reach 30 on the scoreboard once more.

Since winning Week 11's 54-51 shootout against the Chiefs, only one of their last seven games (an inconsequential Week 17 win over the San Francisco 49ers) matched Super Bowl XLIII's gaudy points estimation.

Goff has mustered 6.5 yards per pass attempt during that stretch, all of which he played without receiver Cooper Kupp, who will also be absent for the Super Bowl. There's a stark difference with and without the injured wideout:

Yet, outside of facing the Bears on the road in freezing conditions, the Rams have established a stable offensive floor. If Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson fare a bit better than the Chargers' Melvin Gordon and the Chiefs' Damien Williams did against the Pats, they should come close to holding up their end of the bargain with a high-20s total.

It won't be enough unless the Rams pressure Brady. After not getting sacked in either playoff victory, he has suffered just 21 of them in 18 games this season. That must change for the Rams to prevail:

Along with Aaron Donald, a revitalized Ndamukong Suh gives the NFC champions a puncher's chance. Per NFL.com's Jim Trotter on Wednesday, Rams defensive coordinator Wade Phillips praised the defensive tackle's postseason performance, headlined by 1.5 sacks in the NFC Championship Game.

"Ndamukong not only had two good back-to-back games, but two great back-to-back games," Phillips said. "We're used to seeing him play well, but these last two have been his best."

Kansas City, however, did not even come midway to meeting Pro Football Focus' pressure baseline against Brady in the AFC title bout:

Furthermore, Sony Michel faces a unit that allowed an NFL-high 5.1 yards per carry during the regular season. After bulldozing his way to 242 rushing yards and five touchdowns in two playoff wins, the rookie looks poised for another huge performance.

Throw in fear of picking against Brady and Belichick, and the Patriots are the pick to win and cover. Anybody betting the over/under will likely wait until the closing seconds for a verdict, but both sides wield enough offensive firepower to narrowly clear the lowered line.

Prediction: Patriots 31, Rams 27