Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns: Odds, Analysis, NBA Betting Pick
The Dallas Mavericks (15-11) will go for their fourth consecutive victory on Thursday when they visit the Phoenix Suns (4-24) as solid road favorites at sportsbooks.
This matchup features two of the top Rookie of the Year candidates in Luka Doncic (17.8 points and 6.7 rebounds per game) of the Mavericks and the Suns' DeAndre Ayton (15.8 and 10.2), who was selected with the No. 1 overall pick in the NBA draft.
NBA point spread: The Mavericks opened as 7.5-point favorites; the total is at 211, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)
NBA betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 114.0-96.8, Mavericks (NBA picks on every game)
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Why the Mavericks can cover the spread
Phoenix was reportedly deciding between Ayton and Doncic as the top selection in the draft, and the team's choice of the former allowed the latter to fall to Dallas at No. 3 overall.
The Mavericks could not be happier, as the 19-year-old Slovenian appears to be the most NBA-ready player of the rookie crop.
Doncic has truly improved this team, leading Dallas to 12 wins in the last 15 games. The Mavericks are also an impressive 11-4 against the spread during that stretch following a 3-8 start (6-5 ATS).
Why the Suns can cover the spread
The Suns have earned three of their four wins at home this year, so at least they have that going for them in this spot.
Regardless, they have lost 10 games in a row overall since upsetting the Milwaukee Bucks 116-114 as 13.5-point road underdogs on November 23, including a 123-119 overtime defeat to the Los Angeles Clippers in their last home game on Monday.
Ayton had a team-high 20 points and 12 rebounds versus the Clippers as leading scorer Devin Booker remains out with a hamstring injury.
Even without Booker, Phoenix might be undervalued in this spot as a home underdog.
Smart betting pick
The Suns have surprisingly won the past six meetings both straight up and against the spread. The latest one came earlier this season in a 121-100 rout on October 17 when Phoenix was a 2.5-point home underdog.
The Suns are getting even more points this time around, so look for them to at least keep this one close and cover the spread for the seventh straight time in the series.
NBA betting trends
The total has gone under in four of Dallas' last five games.
Dallas is 0-5 ATS in its last five games when playing Phoenix.
The total has gone under in six of Phoenix's last nine games.
All NBA odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.
