Golden State Warriors vs. Milwaukee Bucks: Odds, Analysis, NBA Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistDecember 7, 2018

Milwaukee Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo during the first half of an NBA basketball game against the Detroit Pistons Wednesday, Dec. 5, 2018, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Aaron Gash)
Aaron Gash/Associated Press

The Golden State Warriors (17-9) will go for their third straight win and try to avenge one of their worst losses of the season on Friday when they visit the Milwaukee Bucks (16-7) as small road underdogs at sportsbooks.

The Warriors fell 134-111 to the Bucks as 5.5-point home favorites on November 8, breaking their eight-game winning streak with Stephen Curry suffering a groin injury.

Curry recently returned to action, though, and has led Golden State to wins in two of three games while averaging 33 points.


NBA point spread: The Bucks opened as 1.5-point favorites; the total is at 239.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NBA betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 119.6-115.0, Bucks (NBA picks on every game)

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Why the Warriors can cover the spread

Curry played 26 minutes in the last meeting before getting hurt, totaling 10 points on 5-of-14 shooting from the field.

Milwaukee really turned it on in the second and third quarters with the 30-year-old out of the game, outscoring Golden State 73-50. Otherwise, it was an even game in the first and fourth quarters.

Regardless, that was then and this is now. The Warriors have looked like their usual dominant selves in their last two games, beating the Atlanta Hawks and Cleveland Cavaliers by an average of 20.5 points.


Why the Bucks can cover the spread

The Bucks gained a lot of confidence from that huge victory in the first meeting earlier this season, and that was actually the second straight time they had won at Golden State.

They saw four of their five starters score in double figures, led by Eric Bledsoe's 26 points, and Giannis Antetokounmpo continued his early MVP campaign with 24 and added nine rebounds and four assists in 26 minutes.

Milwaukee rebounded from a surprising 136-134 overtime loss to the New York Knicks by routing the Detroit Pistons 115-92 on Wednesday, covering as 7.5-point favorites behind 27 points from Bledsoe.


Smart betting pick

The Warriors are just 4-11 against the spread in the past 15 meetings with the Bucks, according to the OddsShark NBA Database, and they have no answer for Antetokounmpo defensively with Draymond Green still out with a toe injury.

Curry will also have his hands full with Bledsoe, and vice versa. So if that individual matchup is a wash, Milwaukee will have no problem beating Golden State for the third time in a row.


NBA betting trends

Golden State is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games.

Golden State is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Milwaukee.

The total has gone over in 16 of Milwaukee's last 24 games.


All NBA odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.