Nuggets Season Preview: Denver Must Be On Guard to Go Far in 2009-10

What is the most important player on the court for a basketball team?

The point guard.

Luckily for the Nuggets, they landed veteran Chauncey Billups last offseason in a trade for Allen Iverson—a trade that has made the front office’s I.Q. look a mile high.

Billups, the home town leader of the Nuggets, has been no-nonsense since his days at George Washington High School, and his approach to the NBA game greatly helped Denver make a huge turnaround in 2008-09.

Billups has been largely credited, at times by head coach George Karl, for being the chief catalyst of the nuggets record-tying 54 wins in 2008-09; partly because he so easily adapts and accepts coaching. Karl changed Denver’s style from “fun and gun” to “defense first” last year, and Chauncey made it clear his first day back in town that the Nuggets would follow Karl’s coaching completely.

And Denver did follow Karl and Billups, all the way to the Western Conference Finals.

But Billups not only bought into Karl’s coaching, he worked as an on-court general as well. Chauncey is at his best in a leadership role; getting on teammates, including Carmelo Anthony, when they’re not giving enough effort, or directing traffic vocally and calling plays every time down the court.

At one point, just before the playoffs began, Billups got together with Karl and told him he believed the Nuggets needed another in-bounds play. Karl agreed, and acquired Billups’ play, which Denver used successfully in the playoffs.

And while leadership is key, Billups can still downright hoop with the best of them.

Chauncey earned his nickname “Mr. Big Shot” after years of clutch shooting in Detroit, and he continued those ways in Denver last season.

Billups is a very deft outside shooter, at 39 percent from the three-point line in his career, but he enjoys driving the lane to toss up a runner in the paint, too.

Also, Billups is Denver’s best passer, averaging 7.5 assists last year. And the way he accumulates the great assist numbers is by playing old-school point guard as a pass-first, team-oriented one who is more inclined to get teammates involved than balloon his own scoring numbers.

On the defensive end, Billups is a stud—at 6’3” and 202 pounds, he’s bigger than most point guards in the NBA. He showed how dominant he can be in last year’s playoffs against who many think is the No. 1 point guard, Chris Paul. CP3 was all but taken out of the series against Denver as he struggled to score in his normal explosive fashion.

Speaking of explosive, while Billups is the steady and consistent leader, starting shooting guard J.R. Smith is the athletic specimen, and oft-times human highlight reel.

Smith, a fifth-year NBA player, will be thrust into the starting five for the first time this season since his rookie year in New Orleans.

In 2008-09, Smith proved he’s worthy of more minutes by improving his game all around. Smith’s ball-handling and passing abilities are much enhanced, and while his turnovers were up (112-150), his assists were up (128-297) by a huge margin last year.

But J.R. “Swoosh”, as teammates affectionately call him, is most effective with the ball in his hands looking to shoot. He scored a career-high 45 points in a game last year, and regularly drops jaws and fills seats with butts at a high rate.

Smith has grown into an absolute three-point assassin, as he loves to catch and shoot from downtown all game long. His signature move after draining a three is to put up three fingers on each hand while skipping down court—a move that is usually gold for getting the Nuggets’ faithful out of their seats and into an uproar.

But that’s not the only cheering J.R. receives, as he regularly tears the roof off the Pepsi Center after driving ferociously to the hoop and throwing down an emphatic dunk.

J.R. can flat-out fly. He is a perennial slam dunk contest participant during All-Star weekend, and many recognize Smith’s dunking ability, which he uses to go up, up, and leap over even the tallest centers in the Association.

Smith’s largest improvement last year though, was the defensive intensity; he now plays with a much more consistent basis. Sure, J.R. will never be a defensive specialist like Dahntay Jones, but with his athletic ability on the offensive end, strong effort on the defensive end is what really matters. Especially since as a starting two Smith will be expected to cover the most talented scorers in the league including Kobe Bryant, Kevin Martin, and Brandon Roy.

But because J.R. has only recently shown maturity (not arguing with Karl or teammates) the Nuggets will be without his services for the first seven games this season. Smith was involved in a car accident in which he was driving the car and resulted in his friend’s death—a dividing line for Smith’s life, which he says has made him grow up.

So, Arron Afflalo, another ex-Detroit guard, who will back up Smith regularly, will likely be the starter for the first seven games for Denver.

After Jones’ loss to the Indiana Pacers, Afflalo was brought in to fill the void as a defensive-minded stopper.

Afflalo is a second-year shooting guard, who ex-teammate Billups is high on his shooting as well as his defensive play . “He’s already a really, really good defender…And he studies the game. It’s going to be a great, great move for us…I think he’s really gained their (coaches) respect with just how serious he is about the game.”

The other two guard spots on the Nuggets are taken up by backup point guards Anthony Carter and Ty Lawson.

As of now, the start of the season, Anthony Carter is second on the depth chart behind Billups for Denver point guards. Coach Karl loves Carter’s intensity on the defensive end, and he believes A.C. is the Nuggets best perimeter defender. Also, Karl likes the ball in his hands when Billups is out since he’s a 10-year veteran.

Personally, I believe Carter has lost a step, and may be the least athletic player the Nuggets currently have. His defense is decent, but he’s too small to body anyone up, and he’s unable to jump high enough to make opponents alter their shot. And as far as ball security, it was partly due to two horribly thrown in-bounds passes by Carter, that the Nuggets lost to the Lakers in last year’s playoffs.

Rookie Ty Lawson is the third point guard now, but that is only for now. Lawson has shown he can play at the NBA level, and even though Karl is famous for not giving rookies much playing time, he may be forced to change his ways and get Lawson into games. Ty Lawson is both quick and fast, which allows him to beat even the fastest players down court and will likely give him some open lay-up opportunities.

My prediction is that Lawson will supplant Carter as the backup point guard behind Billups by season’s end, if not definitely before the playoffs. Carter will need rest, and Lawson will possibly play better than many expect.

In all, the guards will determine whether, or not Denver will be able to compete for the NBA championship again this year. Billups will be his usual consistent self and will likely be the MVP of the Nuggets again this season. Smith must continue to improve on defense, and needs to lower his turnover numbers while playing with the pressure that a starting spot brings.

Denver needs defense from Afflalo, and any offensive production would be an added bonus. From Carter, he’s basically playing for his own playing time, so he’s got to go at 100 percent at all times. As for Lawson, the sky is the limit and he’s got to find a balance between scoring and distributing the ball to teammates.

If the Nuggets guards can play with lots of energy efficiently, look for Denver to once again go deep into the playoffs in 2010. Denver will win 55 games, a new team record, will win the Northwest and compete for the NBA Finals. Even with many contenders gaining star players, the Nuggets will play in the NBA Finals versus the Boston Celtics, and Denver will win the championship in seven games.