Baylor Bears vs. West Virginia Mountaineers Odds, Analysis, Betting Pick

Since becoming Big 12 rivals, the West Virginia Mountaineers are 4-2 straight up in the series with the Baylor Bears. But Baylor is 5-1 against the spread over that span, keeping recent meetings close as underdogs. Which side is the smart bet for this Thursday night Big 12 bash in Morgantown?

College football point spread: The Mountaineers opened as 13.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 34.2-24.3 Mountaineers (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Baylor Bears can cover the spread

Baylor is riding the Big 12 roller coaster at the moment, winning one week, losing the next. Last time out, two weeks ago, the Bears fell to Texas 23-17. They then had last week off.

Baylor, as a two-touchdown underdog, led the Longhorns in the second quarter 10-6, went down 23-10, then pulled back to within one score late in the third quarter. The Bears later drove inside the Texas red zone in the final minute but three incompletions thwarted the rally.

However, Baylor did hang on for the cash. The Bears have now out-gained five of their seven opponents this season.

Why the West Virginia Mountaineers can cover the spread

The Mountaineers started 5-0 this season but are looking to bounce back after falling at Iowa State two weeks ago 30-14. West Virginia also had a bye last week.

The Mountaineers opened the scoring against the Cyclones with a Will Grier touchdown pass midway through the first quarter, and only trailed 20-14 into the fourth. But they just couldn't get anything going offensively against a fired-up Iowa State defense in a performance better left forgotten.

West Virginia had out-gained each of its first five opponents this season, four of them by 146 yards or more. It just had an off-night in Ames.

At 3-1 in Big 12 play, the Mountaineers are tied for second place, one game behind 4-0 Texas. And they get their shot at the Longhorns next week. With wins the next two weeks, West Virginia would own first place heading into the home stretch.

Smart betting pick

Last year West Virginia won this matchup 38-36 but needed a stop on a two-point conversion in the final minute to stave off a huge Baylor rally. And the Bears covered as 10-point dogs. Two years ago the Mountaineers won this matchup 24-21 but Baylor covered as a 17-point dog. West Virginia will probably win this game, too, but the smart money takes the Bears and the points.

College football betting trends

Baylor is 3-0 ATS in its last three games vs West Virginia.

The total has gone under in six of West Virginia's last eight games vs its conference.

West Virginia is 0-4 ATS in its last four games in October.

All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.