Michigan Wolverines vs. Michigan State Spartans Odds, Analysis, Betting Pick

Michigan State is enjoying its greatest run against Michigan in the history of the rivalry, winning eight of the last 10 meetings outright, going a perfect 10-0 against the spread in the process. The Spartans will play as home dogs when they entertain the Wolverines in the battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy on Saturday afternoon in East Lansing.

College football point spread: The Wolverines opened as five-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 29.8-21.0 Wolverines (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Michigan Wolverines can cover the spread

Michigan ran its winning streak to six in a row and reached 4-0 in Big Ten play with a convincing 38-13 decision over Wisconsin last week. The Wolverines drew first blood with a touchdown early in the second quarter, allowed the Badgers to tie the score at 7-7 then scored the next 31 points, spanning the halves, on its way toward the easy cover as 10-point favorites.

On the night Michigan out-gained Wisconsin 444-283, out-rushed the Badgers 320-183, won the turnover battle 2-0 and held a 37/23 advantage in time of possession.

The Wolverines have now out-gained each of their first seven opponents this season, the last six by at least 115 yards, and out-rushed their last six foes.

Why the Michigan State Spartans can cover the spread

Michigan State just bounced back from that upset loss at home to Northwestern two weeks ago to beat Penn State in Happy Valley last week 21-17. The Spartans spotted the Nittany Lions the first seven points of the game and trailed 17-14 late in the fourth quarter. But they drove 76 yards in the last minute and a half to a Felton Davis touchdown catch, his second of the day, for the outright win as 13-point dogs.

On the day, Michigan State out-gained Penn State 418-397, held a 25-14 advantage in first downs and a 34/26 advantage in time of possession.

The Spartans have now out-gained each of their last four opponents and out-rushed five of six foes on the season.

Smart betting pick

Both teams are coming off big winning efforts last week, but Michigan State's came unexpectedly, while Michigan's did not, which makes the Spartans more susceptible to a letdown. Also, while Michigan State won this matchup last year 14-10 the Wolverines are much better now than they were then. Smart money here gives the points with Michigan.

College football betting trends

The total has gone over in three of Michigan's last four games vs Michigan State.

The total has gone over in six of Michigan State's last eight games.

Michigan is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs its conference.

All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.