Celtics, Raptors, Sixers Beware: Giannis Antetokounmpo Is Coming for the East
Giannis Antetokounmpo is about to put the entire Eastern Conference on tilt. At 23 years old, entering his sixth NBA season, he's beginning the final phase of his development, and everyone in his path should be on high alert—including projected powerhouses that reside in Boston, Philadelphia and Toronto.
This might sound silly. To say Antetokounmpo is still developing certainly does. He finished sixth in MVP voting last year and starts the 2018-19 as a near-consensus top-five player. (Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal and myself have him ranked at No. 5).
Established superstars are seldom considered unfinished projects, and Antetokounmpo isn't sneaking up on anyone. The suddenness of his rise is gone. His has been more of a gradual climb over the past few years, with moments of paralyzing awe sprinkled in:
Continuing that trek into megastardom will not be defined by the advent of a new skill or singular improvement. The introduction of more three-point attempts and makes into his arsenal is inevitable. Antetokounmpo fired up 4.8 treys per 36 minutes on a 40.0 percent clip during the preseason. Both marks would be distinct career highs. But his next step is more complicated, more profound, than mere tweaks and twists to his game.
Limited range has not stunted his big-picture arc. He has two All-Star appearances, two All-NBA bids and a pair of top-seven MVP finishes to his name. There have been instances when the absence of a splashy jumper rendered him solvable. The Milwaukee Bucks' first-round loss to the injury-ravaged Celtics is a prime example. But to pretend that holes in his game equate to gaping voids on his resume would be an overstatement of the demand for perfection.
Maybe a handful of players in the entire league can claim to be a contender's life net. Antetokounmpo is one of them. Hitting more threes doesn't elevate him much in that vein. One or two made triples per game is not the primary obstacle preventing him from spearheading a contender. It never has been.
To that end, the fear Antetokounmpo engenders in the East is less about an ultra-refined version of himself and more about what he can accomplish under the right circumstances. And since he's entered the league, Milwaukee has never been home to the ideal.
Antetokounmpo didn't heavily factor into the plans as a rookie under head coach Larry Drew. He appeared in 77 games, but Ekpe Udoh was the only player on the team with a lower usage rate. Playing for Jason Kidd quickly became an anchor. Everything from the Bucks' shot profile to their defensive ethos capped their growth. It was the same story, albeit to a lesser extent, under interim head coach Joe Prunty for the latter part of last year.
Milwaukee's depth has also proved restrictive. The best iterations of Antetokounmpo's squads have always been on the top-heavy side. He never fully clicked with Jabari Parker. The Bucks have overspent on role players. Despite significant investments in John Henson, Greg Monroe, Miles Plumlee and Larry Sanders, the center rotation has been a constant source of unrest.
Antetokounmpo has really only ever been unleashed by way of volume, but never with accompanying substance or invention.
That's all changed.
The Bucks have never pieced together a better supporting cast for Antetokounmpo. The nucleus of the roster remains the same, but the additions on the margins will go a long away. Ersan Ilyasova and Brook Lopez bring dependability and spacing to a frontcourt carousel that needs both. Pat Connaughton and Donte DiVincenzo subtly arm Milwaukee with increased three-point output.
Head coach Mike Budenholzer is the most important newcomer of all. The personnel around Antetokounmpo is set up to maximize his end-to-end pull, and he's just the mind the deploy it. Milwaukee is already reaping the benefits of his arrival.
After placing 25th in three-point-attempt rate last year, the offense ranked third (among NBA teams) during the preseason. And it isn't just new faces leading the way. Incumbents are buying in, hard.
Mid-range lifer Khris Middleton is cold-turkeying long twos:
Antetokounmpo's shot map is getting reworked as well:
Coach Bud's half-court offense is more inventive than anything Kidd ran. The Bucks are moving better and more frequently without the ball and trailing smarter in transition.
Even if Milwaukee doesn't blow teams out of the water with speed, Budenholzer isn't one to dissuade transition opportunities. The Bucks ranked third and first, respectively, in pace last season after a defensive rebound or turnover, according to Inpredictable. They'll have the incentive to push once more, and Budenholzer will make them get up the floor and into their half-court sets more quickly after made shots. They won't finish 20th in pace again.
Preseason is preseason is preseason, but the Bucks placing first in offensive efficiency does not have the feel of anomaly. They have the makings of a 48-minute fireball. Their defense could be slower to come along. They closed 2017-18 inside the bottom half of the league in points allowed per 100 possessions and didn't add a culture-changer on that end.
But Budenholzer's more conservative approach will beef up returns. Milwaukee won't punt on organized rim protection for protracted stretches and will surrender fewer corner threes. Last year's team ranked 29th in opponent rebounding percentage and 30th in opponent free-throw frequency, according to Cleaning The Glass. This season's squad will not.
Granted, the Bucks don't profile as defensive world-beaters. But they showed more discipline during the preseason. They improved their opponent offensive rebounding and free-throw rates, and they're doing a better job of contesting three-point looks rather than funneling ball-handlers toward the rim.
Ilaysova in particular permits the Bucks to plumb the depths of their versatility without jeopardizing defensive structure. Middleton needed to take on power forward responsibilities last season for Antetokounmpo-at-center lineups, which coughed up more than 116 points per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass. Ilyasova can now straddle that line between big and non-big in those same arrangements, lightening Antetokounmpo's defensive assignments without reducing the offense's ranginess.
Looming over all this is whatever Antetokounmpo does himself. Through three preseason tilts, he averaged 24.0 points, 11.7 rebounds. 5.7 assists and 1.7 steals while shooting 66.7 percent from the floor. And he added a 25-minute triple-double for good measure:
"I think you're going to see a whole new Giannis this year," Middleton told CBS Sports' James Herbert. "With that being said, it's more of a guy not hesitating more and shooting more freely. [He will take] threes and mid-range and whatever, but without him hesitating or trying to force the issue."
If a new brand of Antetokounmpo manifests amid the Bucks' evolution, well, dang. But they don't need him to get that much better—or better at all. They rolled out six lineups last year that cleared 90 minutes and outscored opponents by at least 3.5 points per 100 possessions. Only the Houston Rockets fielded as many of those five-man combinations.
Left untouched, the Bucks weren't terribly far from a scenario in which they could have sniffed the NBA Finals. The Celtics have to juggle a wildly deep pecking order while integrating Gordon Hayward. The Sixers have two huge question marks in their bench and Markelle Fultz. Kawhi Leonard is both new to the Raptors and returning from a quad injury that cost him almost all of 2017-18. So even as Boston, Toronto and Philly are gearing up for what many consider a three-team race, a top-five player alone would still give Milwaukee that hypothetical path out of the East.
Except, Antetokounmpo now has something more: the supporting cast he needs, the offensive gimmicks he deserves, and the chance to reign over an entire conference that comes with them.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com or Basketball Reference.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale) and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by B/R's Andrew Bailey.
