2019 NBA Draft Prospects Entering Make-or-Break Seasons
Prospects have no more than four seasons in college to build a case for NBA scouts. And the longer they wait to turn the corner, the tougher it becomes to convince teams they're still oozing potential.
Over the years, numerous names that appeared on our draft boards haven't lasted.
These seven upperclassmen have entered the draft discussion at some point. They've at least made scouts think. However, time is running out for the following juniors and seniors to take the leap NBA evaluators have needed to see.
Markis McDuffie, Wichita State SF/PF, Senior
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There were breakout hopes for Markis McDuffie last year before a foot fracture led to missed games and rustiness upon returning.
He'll still receive a quality opportunity to build a case for NBA scouts, with Wichita State having lost its top three scorers from a year ago.
McDuffie, an athletic, 6'8" combo forward, passes the eye test. But he averaged just 8.5 points in 18.9 minutes (22 games) last season, not looking as confident or threatening as he did when he ranked in the 87th percentile out of spot-up situations the year prior.
Despite taking a step backward, scouts will continue to monitor McDuffie for his versatility and fit. Flashes of three-point range, slashing ability, cutting and offensive rebounding are intriguing.
He'll have to tie it all together as the Shockers' top option during his final college season. Improving on his 0.9 three-pointers per game would be a good place to start.
Marques Bolden, Duke C, Junior
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A 2016 McDonald's All-American once thought of as a one-and-done first-round candidate, Marques Bolden is now entering his third season at Duke.
He hasn't experienced many memorable moments since arriving. Bolden needs a breakout year to avoid being completely discounted by NBA scouts after he averaged 3.9 points in 12.9 minutes as a sophomore.
He fights an uphill battle against a scouting process that's devaluing true centers unable to play outside the paint. But there is still room for interior-oriented bigs who finish at a high rate and protect their basket.
Bolden did shoot 61.5 percent and block 3.0 shots per 40 minutes last season. But to restore any credibility with NBA scouts, he'll have to become a more threatening post scorer, disciplined defender and consistent overall presence.
With Marvin Bagley III and Wendell Carter Jr. both gone, Bolden should have an opening, even if it's in a role off the bench.
Kerwin Roach II, Texas PG/SG, Senior
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Scouts have been waiting to see if Kerwin Roach II's offensive skills would catch up to the explosive speed and leaping.
He's taken baby steps, though none big enough to draw enough interest as an NBA point guard.
His athletic ability, which theoretically creates long-term upside, buys him extra time to develop as a scorer and playmaker. But now he's down to one more year at Texas. And eventually, that upside will appear to expire after years of pedestrian improvement.
Over his final 17 games as a junior, Roach finished with at least 20 points five times and fewer than 10 points six times. The high-flying act, flashes of shooting and tough defense have been overshadowed by inconsistency.
Specifically, he has to improve off the dribble, having shot 16-of-52 on pull-up jumpers and 9-of-28 on runners. His 65.1 percent free-throw clip was also sadly a career high.
After undergoing knee surgery in August, Roach is back practicing and seems ready to be cleared by opening night.
Dedric Lawson, Kansas SF/PF, Junior
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Dedric Lawson sat out last year after transferring from Memphis, where he didn't create draft buzz despite averaging 19.2 points and 9.9 rebounds as a sophomore.
He's now in the spotlight at Kansas and won't have any shortage of opportunities to make an impression, given a Jayhawks schedule that will include dozens of heavily scouted matchups.
The question with Lawson has always been fit—whether he's athletic enough around the basket or skilled enough to work from the perimeter. Lawson had the lowest standing and max verticals at the 2016 NBA combine, and he's a combined 58-of-191 from three through 65 college games.
A believer would point to his versatility at a time when there isn't a major difference between small and power forwards. Lawson, 6'9", works from the high and low posts, can make open shots and put the ball down and score facing the basket.
He'll take over as Kansas' No. 1 option in his first year with the team. Lawson does have two more seasons left of eligibility, but if he's unable to win scouts over after this one, it will become even tougher to change perception when he's 22-23 years old.
Bennie Boatwright, USC PF, Senior
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Injuries have held Bennie Boatwright back since he earned a spot on the map as a freshman at USC. He'll need a full senior season's worth of production to re-enter the draft conversation.
Boatwright plays an intriguing game with his mix of 6'10" height, shooting range and the ability to create and make specialty shots like post fallaways and step-backs. But he's also never reached 37.0 percent from three, and despite his size, he's finished below 50.0 percent inside the arc in two of three seasons.
Sometimes unable to avoid the urge to launch a hero-ball jumper, his shot selection can be a turnoff. Meanwhile, Boatwright doesn't offer a great deal as a rebounder or defender, making it that much more important he's on offensively.
Teams may continue to scout him for his shot-making potential in the mold of Channing Frye. Staying healthy is obviously priority No. 1, but improving his two-point efficiency and shooting accuracy aren't far behind on the to-do list.
Lagerald Vick, Kansas SG/SF, Senior
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Lagerald Vick nearly left Kansas to try to go pro before making a surprise announcement he'd be back.
It was the right move. He didn't receive an invite to the NBA combine, with Vick not offering enough pop in any area.
Inconsistency has become a theme, and after multiple seasons, he doesn't get a free pass that an 18- or 19-year-old might.
An athletic wing and shooter, Vick could build a case around role-player potential. But a 6'5", non-playmaker has to become more threatening offensively and reliable on defense.
Per 40 minutes, he averaged just 14.6 points, 1.7 free-throw attempts and 1.8 made threes, and he ranked in the 26th percentile as a pick-and-roll passer.
Terence Davis, Mississippi SG, Senior
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Terence Davis was on breakout alert last season until it became evident he was regressing and 2018 wouldn't be his year.
His field-goal mark fell to 40.7 percent from 48.2 percent, mostly a result of a struggling perimeter game that went backward. Davis shot 31.7 percent from three and missed 40 of 50 total pull-up jumpers. He was also ineffective in creation situations, ranking in the 20th percentile as a pick-and-roll ball-handler while only converting three isolation field goals all season.
But through three years at Mississippi, Davis has made athletic plays and shots that could appear translatable based on solid tools, quickness and shot-making ability (2.7 threes per 40 last year).
He'll have one more year to tighten his ball skills and shot selection and make a higher percentage of his outside looks. A repeat of last season won't earn him a spot on top-60 scouting lists in May.
Stats courtesy of Synergy Sports, Sports-Reference.com
