Miami owns a three-game winning streak in the rivalry with Virginia, but the Cavaliers are the ones making money, going 4-1 against the spread over the last five meetings, pulling one upset and keeping a couple other games close.
Who's the smart bet for this ACC Coastal Division clash Saturday night in Charlottesville?
College football point spread: The Hurricanes opened as 7.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)
College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 30.0-18.6 Hurricanes (College football picks on every game)
Why the Miami Hurricanes can cover the spread
The Hurricanes carry a five-game winning streak into this week, following their crazy 28-27 come-from-behind victory over Florida State last time out.
Miami, coming off a nine-day layoff, trailed 7-0 out of the gate, 20-7 at halftime and 27-7 early in the third quarter. But the Hurricanes then turned two takeaways into 14 quick points, and a few moments later, quarterback N'Kosi Perry teamed with Brevin Jordan for a 41-yard score and the lead.
The Miami defense then forced two punts, and the offense ran the last four minutes off the clock to secure the win.
The Hurricanes only produced 306 yards of offense, but they held FSU to just 200. Miami also held a 20-14 edge in first downs and a 35/25 edge in time of possession. The Hurricanes have now outgained all six opponents this season and outrushed five of them.
Why the Virginia Cavaliers can cover the spread
UVA carried a two-game winning streak into its most recent outing but fell at still-undefeated North Carolina State 35-21 two weeks ago. The Cavs then had last week off.
Virginia led the Wolfpack 7-3 after one quarter but gave up the next 24 points of the game. The Cavaliers then pulled within two scores twice in the fourth quarter but could get no closer and came up one score short of pushing the spread as seven-point dogs.
An early interception and a fourth-down failure basically cost Virginia 13 points. Near the end, the Cavs recovered an onside kick and reached the North Carolina State seven-yard line, but an interception killed hopes of that push.
Three weeks ago, Virginia opened its ACC slate with a 27-3 victory over Louisville.
Smart betting pick
Last year Miami won this matchup 44-28, but that score is misleading. The Hurricanes actually trailed the Cavaliers 28-21 in the third quarter before scoring the last 23 points of the game.
Virginia outgained Miami that day by 80 yards and easily covered the spread as a 20-point dog. And, basically, not all that much has changed for these teams since then. Miami may win this one outright, too, but the smart money takes the Cavs and the points.
College football betting trends
The total has gone under in three of Miami's last four games versus Virginia.
Virginia is 4-1 ATS in its last five games.
The total has gone under in six of Virginia's last eight games at home versus teams with winning records.
All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.