Missouri Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: Odds, College Football Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistOctober 9, 2018

TUSCALOOSA, AL - SEPTEMBER 29:  Tua Tagovailoa #13 of the Alabama Crimson Tide looks to pass against the Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Bryant-Denny Stadium on September 29, 2018 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama.  (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Alabama is rolling toward another College Football Playoff berth, but with that total dominance comes huge point spreads. And unfortunately for their financial backers, the Crimson Tide are 0-3 against the spread the last three weeks. Alabama faces another big line for Saturday night's match with Missouri in Tuscaloosa.

College football point spread: The Crimson Tide opened as 28-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 52.6-26.2 Crimson Tide (College football picks on every game).

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Why the Missouri Tigers can cover the spread

The Tigers opened this season with three straight wins, but they have since lost two tough ones in a row, including a 37-35 decision in the rain at South Carolina last week. Missouri drove its opening possession of the game 62 yards to a touchdown and led 23-14 at the half. Things then got crazy from there, as the lead changed hands five times in the second half. The Tigers took their final lead on a 57-yard field goal by Tucker McCann with just over a minute to go, but they lost it on a Gamecocks field goal with two seconds left.

On the day, Missouri out-gained South Carolina 490-377 and out-rushed the Gamecocks 286-128. But the Tigers also managed just six points on three drives that reached deep inside the South Carolina red zone and threw a pick-six.

Two weeks ago Missouri fell at home to a good Georgia team 43-29. The Tigers produced 393 yards of offense that day but gave up two defensive/special teams touchdowns. Missouri also had the spread covered as 14-point home dogs that day until the Bulldogs kicked a field goal with a-minute-and-a-half to go garner a push.

        

Why the Alabama Crimson Tide can cover the spread

The defending national champs are 6-0 on the season, and 3-0 in SEC play, after blasting Arkansas last week 65-31. Alabama scored on a 76-yard touchdown pass on its first place from scrimmage, led 21-0 less than 10 minutes into the game and 41-14 at the half. The Tide pushed that advantage to 65-24 with two minutes to go but gave up a Razorbacks touchdown with 13 seconds left and missed covering the 35-point spread.

On the day, Alabama racked up 639 yards of offense, 246 on the ground and 393 through the air. Meanwhile, the Tide defense added a pick-six in the fourth quarter, the sixth defensive/special teams touchdown already this season for this team.

Alabama has also now scored at least 45 points every game this season.

        

Smart betting pick

The Crimson Tide are going to win this game, but once again, playing at home, they face a stiff point spread. Meanwhile, Missouri gave Georgia a good game a couple weeks ago, and the Bulldogs are one of the few teams that can compare with Alabama. The smart money here takes the Tigers and the points.

              

College football betting trends

The total has gone over in six of Alabama's last seven games.

Alabama is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games vs its conference.

Missouri is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games on the road vs teams with winning records.

         

All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.

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