Predicting When Every Undefeated College Football Team Will Lose
October 8, 2018Predicting When Every Undefeated College Football Team Will Lose
Week 6 of the 2018 college football season was not kind to highly ranked teams. Oklahoma, LSU and Kentucky each fell off the shrinking list of undefeated teams, and more will drop as the season progresses. Just 11 unbeaten teams remain in the FBS.
The regular cast of powerhouses are back—Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State and Clemson—and they want back into the College Football Playoff. But they're joined by three American Athletic Conference teams as well as Notre Dame, West Virginia, Colorado and NC State.
Few, if any, will stay undefeated. We have predictions for when each will fall.
No. 25 Cincinnati Bearcats
First loss will come: vs. Navy, Nov. 3
Cincinnati Bearcats head coach Luke Fickell has transformed his team into a dominant force in the AAC in short time. The Bearcats have a stingy defense, allowing just 274.3 yards per game, which is good for fifth-best in the nation. But they've only beaten bad teams to this point.
Sophomore Michael Warren II has been one of the best under-the-radar storylines this season. He's been incredibly productive and effective and already has four games over 100 yards. In his other two contests, he combined for 169 yards on 35 carries. Warren's both a workhorse and game-breaker.
Fickell's defense must do a better job of two things if Cincinnati is to continue its winning ways. The first is forcing turnovers. The Bearcats have averaged only 1.2 per game. The other is another explosive play measurement: sacks. Cincinnati has recorded only 2.2 per game, which is tied for 50th in the nation.
At least one loss is coming with the toughest stretch of the Bearcats' schedule arriving. They go to Temple on Oct. 20, host Navy on Nov. 3 and host South Florida on Nov. 10. Then they travel to UCF on Nov. 17. They'll drop a couple, starting with Navy, as the Midshipmen can control the clock and limit the Bearcats' opportunities to score.
No. 23 South Florida
First loss will come: at Houston, Oct. 27
The South Florida Bulls continue to play well under Charlie Strong, who has a 15-2 record in two seasons. They've gotten through the first half of their schedule unscathed, but the meat of it comes in the last six weeks.
Allowing over 422.8 total yards and 5.23 yards per play is a trend that must stop now. There's some positive on that end, though. The Bulls have a solid red-zone defense capable of limiting some of the power offenses they'll soon face.
South Florida has allowed just 10 touchdowns in 17 red-zone trips. Limiting opponents to three points gives Blake Barnett and Jordan Cronkrite chances to score enough points. They'll be in every game if that continues.
With games at Houston, Cincinnati and Temple and the season finale at home against UCF, USF is going to lose at least once. Narrow wins against Georgia Tech, Illinois and East Carolina don't bode well as matchups with more explosive teams will expose the Bulls' mediocre defense between the 20s.
No. 20 NC State Wolfpack
First loss will come: at Syracuse, Oct. 27
The NC State Wolfpack have surprised many by still being undefeated to this point. Of course, their canceled affair with West Virginia would've ended one of the two undefeated bids on this list had it been played, but now the Wolfpack will go to Clemson without a blemish for their next contest.
In typical ACC fashion, chaos will arrive soon. We're predicting the veteran-laden Wolfpack upset the Tigers despite being on the road but will lose one week later in Syracuse. It's only fitting as the conference has been cannibalizing itself in 2018.
A key for the Wolfpack for the rest of the season is to create a more effective running game with Reggie Gallaspy Jr. He has been great at converting short-yard situations en route to seven touchdowns. It's not encouraging that his 25-carry, 104-yard performance against Boston College yielded his highest yards-per-carry average of the season, though.
Future NFL quarterback Ryan Finley and receiver Kelvin Harmon will be under the spotlight in these games.
Syracuse is our pick for NC State's losing spot, as the Orange boast a dynamic home-field advantage and offense that is a bad matchup for the Wolfpack. Quarterback Eric Dungey has been excellent with Dino Babers, and they appear ready for the challenge with their explosive offense.
No. 19 Colorado Buffaloes
First loss will come: at Washington, Oct. 20
Two of the biggest individual emergences in the Pac-12 have come from the Colorado Buffaloes. Quarterback Steven Montez and wide receiver Laviska Shenault Jr. have taken the conference by storm, as nearly half of Montez's 1,420 yards and six of his 11 touchdowns passes have gone to the star receiver.
The Buffaloes have played one of the easiest schedules in the country, so things will get dicier in coming weeks. With back-to-back road games at USC and Washington on the horizon, we'll learn a lot more about Mike MacIntyre's defense than we did when the Buffaloes played teams with a combined 3-18 record. Arizona State has been by far their best opponent, and the Sun Devils are not an intimidating foe despite their toughness.
Washington will be a test for Colorado. The Huskies have plus athletes across the board and are one of the best-coached teams in the country. Their size and speed advantages disappear against the elite programs, but the Buffaloes don't have that luxury this year besides their two offensive stars.
This game will play a major role in deciding the North and South divisions. Colorado will still have to finish the year against Washington State, Utah and California, but those teams aren't as loaded as the Huskies.
No. 10 Central Florida Knights
First loss will come: vs. West Virginia in the Peach Bowl, Dec. 29
Losing Scott Frost has had an effect on the Central Florida Knights passing game, but it hasn't been enough of a change to alter the projection for Josh Heupel's squad. Heupel's offense hasn't been nearly as explosive or consistent as Frost's 2017 unit, as McKenzie Milton's numbers have dropped across the board, including significantly fewer yards per attempt (8.8, down from 10.2) and a lower completion percentage (59.6, down from 67.1). Some of that is because of the NFL departures of irreplaceable receiver Tre'Quan Smith and tight end Jordan Akins.
The running game has been better, though, as sophomore Greg McCrae has emerged with chunk runs. McCrae and Adrian Killins Jr. head a balanced running game that's featured Milton more as the mesh reader than last year. The results have been good for the offensive ecosystem even if Killins' production has taken a step back.
What makes this team special and ready for one of the elite bowl games is its improved defense. Ranked 19th in the country with just 17.4 points allowed per game, it is capable of slowing every team on the schedule. Defensive backs Richie Grant and Nevelle Clarke have helped fill the shoes of Shaquem Griffin as playmakers for the unit.
A tough four-game stretch against Temple, Navy, Cincinnati and at South Florida to end the season will determine which bowl game UCF will attend. If the Knights survive as predicted, Bleacher Report's Joe Tansey projects they will face West Virginia in the Peach Bowl.
That's not a favorable matchup since the Knights offense is less effective than it was last year. The Mountaineers are as talented as any team with Will Grier creating big plays almost at will.
No. 6 West Virginia Mountaineers
First loss will come: vs. Oklahoma, Nov. 23
After years of tweaking his offense to fit his quarterbacks, West Virginia Mountaineers head coach Dana Holgorsen has found the right blend of spread passing and rushing to create play-action opportunities. Quarterback Will Grier is firmly in the Heisman Trophy race with his ability to efficiently create big plays. West Virginia's two biggest matchups are at Texas and versus Oklahoma.
It's possible the Longhorns will use their home-field advantage to upset the Mountaineers on Nov. 3, and Gary Patterson could get TCU to do the same in Morgantown one week later. And of course Oklahoma State can trade blows in Stillwater on Nov. 17.
But none of those teams have X-factors like Grier and receiver David Sills V. Grier's ability to create outside the pocket separates him from Sam Ehlinger, Shawn Robinson and Taylor Cornelius.
The Mountaineers have enough defensive talent to withstand each team's best shot. The Cowboys will push their limit, but the Sooners will break their defense.
The Oklahoma offense is as dangerous as any in the country because of its elite coaching and athleticism. Kyler Murray, Marquise Brown, and CeeDee Lamb force defenses to be in perfect position and punish individuals who lose even one step. The defense is suspect again as Texas showed, but the Mountaineers haven't shown the same ability to slow offenses that Texas has.
There should be a lot on the line in this game, including the conference championship and maybe the Heisman.
No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
First loss will come: vs. Alabama in the Cotton Bowl, Dec. 29
The college football landscape unexpectedly took a turn after quarterback Ian Book took over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. The decision to replace senior Brandon Wimbush looks like an easy one now, so it's curious Brian Kelly ever thought Wimbush was the better option.
The Irish defense has been stellar thanks to defensive linemen Jerry Tillery and Khalid Kareem. It's allowed just 4.6 yards per play, the 17th-best mark in the nation. Their ability to win in the trenches will keep Notre Dame in any game.
Book, a junior who had just 75 passing attempts in 2017, can throw into tight windows to create chunk plays. The payoff has been massive, with nine touchdowns and only one interception through four games.
Receiver Miles Boykin has looked like the game-changer he was expected to be, but only after Book started to play. Boykin's had 261 yards and three touchdowns in his last two games. The identity of the offense went from rugged and plodding to dynamic and pass-happy.
And there's not an intimidating opponent left on the Irish's schedule. If they win out, they should make the playoff. As the potential No. 4 seed, Notre Dame would likely play Alabama.
As we'll touch on shortly, the Crimson Tide are on pace to play for another national title for good reason. The Irish would be the underdog, with Alabama's explosive, NFL talent-filled offense being the biggest factor.
No. 4 Clemson Tigers
First loss will come: vs. NC State, October 20
It's universally accepted that the Clemson Tigers are among college football's powerhouses, but they haven't flexed on their opponents until they've needed to. It's left them vulnerable against solid but inferior foes, such as Syracuse in 2017 and 2018, NC State in 2016 and 2017, Troy in 2016 and Pitt in 2016.
Even with one of the country's best defenses, the Tigers are headed for several hurdles that will test their young offense. The first will come after Saturday's bye, when they'll travel to Death Valley. NC State has lost by seven points to the Tigers in each of the last two seasons, falling short because of a missed chip-shot field goal at the end of regulation in 2016 and tasting defeat in 2017's shootout.
The Wolfpack's combined experience on both sides of the ball will pay off this time. Quarterback Ryan Finley and junior receiver Kelvin Harmon headline a unit that can not only pass but also control the ball and grind out yards behind a physical offensive line. The Tigers are more athletic and dynamic on defense but have been vulnerable to intermediate passes against Syracuse and Texas A&M this season.
A key to avoiding this upset will be to get quarterback Trevor Lawrence in rhythm after his return against Wake Forest. Clemson may not be as suspect late in the season if he realizes his potential, especially since the team realized running back Travis Etienne needs the ball as much as possible.
No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes
First loss will come: vs. Alabama in the national championship game, Jan. 7, 2019
After surviving a too-close-for-comfort scare at Penn State on Sept. 29, the Ohio State Buckeyes look like overwhelming favorites to win out until at least their showdown with Michigan on November 24. A potential letdown game against Purdue on October 20 is one to watch, but these Buckeyes appear to have a much higher floor than their 2016 and 2017 counterparts because of the increased passing output.
As good as J.T. Barrett was as a leader and runner, Dwayne Haskins has been fantastic for the Buckeyes. He offers solutions to more potential problems than any other Buckeyes quarterback has since Troy Smith. And that's helped running backs Mike Weber and J.K. Dobbins as ball-carriers.
Ohio State isn't perfect, though. Its defense has been gashed for 20 30-plus-yard plays and four rushes of 70 yards or more. Defensive leader Nick Bosa's absence (core injury) is significant, and the youth at linebacker and safety led to near-disastrous results against Penn State and TCU.
But they've still outscored opponents by 174 points and won't face such deep, explosive rosters until the College Football Playoff. If Bosa comes back into the fold, Ohio State will have more star power on both sides of the ball than any team except arguably Alabama.
No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs
First loss will come: vs. Auburn, November 10
There's a brutal month of games awaiting the Georgia Bulldogs starting this, week as they travel to LSU. Unlike some of their peers, the Bulldogs can't rely on the advantage of a long homestand. They'll host Florida and Auburn, but trips to LSU and Kentucky on alternating weeks will be an exhausting gauntlet.
With just one win against a Top 25 opponent, the Bulldogs haven't been tested consistently. They'll lose one of these four games despite having a better, more balanced roster than each.
LSU will be a worthy opponent. But the Tigers don't have the offensive line and receiver play to test the deep, athletic Bulldogs defense. Georgia will penetrate LSU's offensive line with four rushers and put quarterback Joe Burrow in a near-impossible situation to overcome seven dropped-coverage defenders.
Both Florida and Kentucky lack pure passers who can punish the middle of Georgia's defense. Only advanced talents will be comfortable with the risky timing routes. That leaves Auburn, a flawed team but one with the right blend of coaching experience, deep receiving threats and an athletic quarterback in Jarrett Stidham.
It also helps that the Tigers have a stingy run defense, which will force Jake Fromm to compensate. Auburn's allowed just 3.6 yards per-carry and three scores on the ground this season. Stidham will need to play better for them to beat Georgia, but the upside is there for him to figure things out before November 10.
Even if it loses one of these matchups and misses the SEC Championship Game, Georgia can still get into the College Football Playoff. Its resume would be favorable compared to each one-loss team except Ohio State in the event that all of these contenders lose once.
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide
First loss will come: Next season
Alabama is a powerhouse. That's the one definitive thing we can say through six games. The 6-0 Crimson Tide have the best offensive skill players in their history, and that's allowed them to average a country-best 56 points per game. They are easily the favorite to win the College Football Playoff, considering their talent, coaching and execution.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa's emergence has changed the way the Tide are viewed. After they won national championships with mediocre passers, it's jarring to see Nick Saban's bunch have a future top NFL draft pick at the position. Tagovailoa has been marvelous, as he's racked up 1,495 yards and 18 touchdowns on a ridiculous 14.8 yards per attempt.
The combined receiving talent of Jerry Jeudy, Irv Smith Jr. and Henry Ruggs III is enough to bring any defense to its knees. They'd produce even with an average quarterback, but Tagovailoa maximizes their effectiveness with his timing and ball placement.
The defense doesn't have as many star veterans as in recent years, but it hasn't been a problem. Free safety Deionte Thompson is the best ball-hawking presence since Ohio State's Malik Hooker in 2016, as he closes passing windows with impressive speed and instincts. A deep rotation of capable pass-rushers has aided him.
The only possible threats are Georgia and Ohio State, and to a lesser extent, Notre Dame. Georgia and Notre Dame are physical teams in the trenches with stout defenses. Ohio State has the star power to win—especially if Bosa returns—and the offensive talent to get into a shootout.
But Alabama is the favorite. The Tide have earned it, and the only key regular-season games they have on a soft schedule are at LSU on November 3 and against Auburn on November 24.