Washington Nationals Just Three Players Away From Respectability

In 2008, The Washington Nationals had the worst record in all of baseball because they had the worst players in all of baseball. That kind of stands to reason, don’t you think?

They ended the season with just 59 wins, thanks in part to their woeful offense, by far the worst in the league.

Club owner Mark Lerner and team president Stan Kasten vowed to place at general manager Jim Bowden’s disposal the necessary resources to at least make the team competitive in 2009.

And for the most part, they succeeded. In trying, that is.

Spring Training found several new players on the roster, players who actually had some real major league talent. The additions of Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham, Jordan Zimmermann, Joe Beimel—and later Nyjer Morgan and Sean Burnett—seemed to infuse the Nationals with enough ability to expect at the very least another 10 or so victories in the win column this past season.

Seven months later, the Nationals ended the 2009 season with 59 wins, the same number as the year before.

How is that possible? How can a team be that much better and yet be just as bad?

The offense, last in virtually every offensive category in 2008, was middle-of-the-pack or better in those same categories this past season.

They upped their team batting average seven points to .258, hit 39 more homers, and scored 69 more runs, increasing their production from 3.9 to 4.3 runs per game.

The Nationals jumped from thirteenth in on-base percentage to sixth (.337). Even their slugging percent was a respectable .337—good for ninth in the league—up 14 points from 2008 when they finished last.

The Nationals walked more and struck out less. They became more patient at the plate, increasing their pitches-per-plate-appearance from 3.73 (13^th in the National League) to 3.86 (third).

The team had one of the better leadoff men in Nyjer Morgan and perhaps the most feared middle of the lineup in Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Dunn, who combined for 71 homers and 211 RBI.

No, it wasn’t the offense.

It was the Nationals pitching staff in 2009 that sank their chances for a competitive season, finishing far worse than the previous year’s group who themselves finished last in the league.

They were the worst in the league, and then went downhill from there. That’s the kind of double-whammy that a team just can’t escape from.

The Nationals’ ERA increased by more than half a run to 5.02 as they allowed 36 more hits and walked 252 more batters while striking out 152 fewer players.

The opponents batting average increased six points to .276 (worst in the league) while their on-base percentage jumped by nine (worst in the league). Opponent’s slugging percentage was .450, which was … you guessed it … worst in the league.

The starter’s statistics were very similar in 2008 and ‘09. In 2008, the rotation went 34-75 with a 4.88 ERA and 67 quality starts. This year, they went 35-64, 4.91 and 64 quality starts.

But in 2008, the bullpen was the strength of the pitching staff with a record of 25-27, 4.28. Now, don’t get me wrong; these aren’t the stats of a contending team. But they are the stats of a competitive team.

Just a year later, the bullpen was in shambles and the team continued their freefall towards the cellar. In 2009, the bullpen record was 25-39 with a 5.15 ERA, almost a full run higher than the previous year.

But to be fair, those relief numbers are deceiving.

Manny Acta began the season with a bullpen that included Julian Tavarez, Jesus Colome, Mike Hinckley, Steven Schell, Joel Hanrahan and Kip Wells and boy-oh-boy were they terrible. They combined for a 9-18, 7.10 record before they were demoted, discarded or released.

They were replaced by a group that featured Sean Burnett, Mike MacDougal, Tyler Clippard and Jason Bergman who, along with Ron Villone settled down a very flighty bullpen. They finished the 2009 season with a combined record of 13-13 and a sparkling 3.39 ERA.

Over the winter, the Nationals added several quality players and finished with the same record. This year, a starting pitcher and two solid relievers could bring the team to within sniffing distance of a .500 record.

Sean Burnett, Mike MacDougal, Tyler Clippard and Jason Bergman should return in 2010. Drew Storen, the Nationals “other” first-round pick in 2009, continues to impress in the Arizona desert, but it would probably be best if he spends next year honing his craft in Syracuse.

Billy Wagner, one of the best closers in baseball history, will be a free agent this winter and wants very much to play closer to his Virginia home in 2010.

Yes, that Virginia, the one along the city's southern border.

Show Wagner that the team will be improved next year and I think he’d sign with the Nationals, which would make the bullpen well above average. Add a 2010 version of Joe Beimel—maybe bring Beimel back—and Washington would have a tremendous bullpen.

Two of the Nationals’ best starters, Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann, really can’t be counted on until 2011. So unless a trade is made, the team will have to find five starters among John Lannan, Craig Stammen, J.D. Martin, Livan Hernandez, Ross Detwiler and Colin Balester.

A linchpin in the rotation could be Scott Olsen, who was lost for the season after undergoing shoulder surgery. Olsen, who at just 25 has won 33 major league games, could provide a much needed veteran presence if he’s healthy.

However, to keep him, the Nationals will have to pick up his option this winter, and would have to do so before he is fully healed. I doubt that general manager Mike Rizzo is willing to take that kind of chance on the injured southpaw.

The Nationals will say goodbye to Dmitri Young and Austin Kearns this winter, saving them $13 million in payroll. Add to that the $9 million already saved when the team traded Ronnie Belliard and Nick Johnson and the Nationals will have a nice little nest egg to spend on free agents this winter.

Billy Wagner and a second bullpen arm would cost about $12 million. The Nationals could then sign a quality starter—say Randy Wolf—and not spend a penny more in salary than they did last year.

And the Nationals would be on the road towards respectability.

Three free agents, good ones but not great, could bridge the gap between a very bad Nationals team and the very good one that will break out of its cocoon when Strasburg and Zimmermann take to the mound in 2011.

Most teams seem to sandwich a .500 season in between their last lousy year and their first good one.

For the Nationals, 2010 just might be that year.