LSU Tigers vs. Florida Gators Odds, Analysis, College Football Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistOctober 3, 2018

LSU quarterback Joe Burrow (9) drops back to pass in the first half of an NCAA college football game against Mississippi in Baton Rouge, La., Saturday, Sept. 29, 2018. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
Gerald Herbert/Associated Press

LSU holds the edge in the recent rivalry with Florida, winning six of the last eight meetings straight up and going 5-3 against the spread. And that includes two straight wins in Gainesville.

Can the Tigers make it three in row at the Swamp on Saturday afternoon?

    

College football point spread: The Tigers opened as three-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 34.2-20.2 Tigers (College football picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or Spotify or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

    

Why the LSU Tigers can cover the spread

The Tigers reached 5-0 on the season, and 2-0 in SEC play, with a 45-16 mugging of Ole Miss last week.

LSU spotted the Rebels an early field goal then drove 81, 71, 83 and 69 yards to touchdowns on its following four possessions for a 28-6 halftime lead. The Tigers let the Rebels get within 28-13 in the third quarter but pulled away with 17 points on their last three possessions and covered easily as 11-point favorites.

And that final score could have been worse; LSU lost two fumbles inside the Ole Miss red zone. 

LSU piled up 573 yards of total offense, 281 on the ground and 292 through the air. The Tigers also made 33 first downs, to 18 for Mississippi, and won time of possession by a 35/25 split.

LSU is already 1-0 on the SEC road this season, with that 22-21 victory at Auburn three weeks ago.

      

Why the Florida Gators can cover the spread

The Gators are 3-0 both SU and ATS over the last three weeks following their 13-6 upset victory at Mississippi State last week.

Florida trailed the Bulldogs 3-0 early and 6-3 at the half but drove their second possession of the second half 73 yards to a touchdown and held on from there, giving new coach Dan Mullen a win against his former team.

The Gators outgained Mississippi State 357-202 and won time of possession by a 34/26 split, winning outright as seven-point dogs.

After completing just 53 percent of his passes through the first four games of this season quarterback, Feleipe Franks hit on 22 of 31 throws last week for 219 yards.

Two weeks ago, the Gators beat Tennessee 47-21, easily covering a four-point spread.

       

Smart betting pick

LSU already owns two wins over Top 20 opponents this season, Miami and Auburn, and if they continue to get quality play from quarterback Joe Burrow, they might be really dangerous.

Florida, meanwhile, won ugly last week and benefited from six Volunteers turnovers two weeks ago. The only real challenge for the Gators this year came against Kentucky, and they lost that game. The smart money here takes the Tigers.

        

College football betting trends

The total has gone under in seven of LSU's last 10 games on the road versus Florida.

Florida is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games versus its conference.

LSU is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games versus its conference.

    

All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.

Related

    No Additional Punishment for Mullen, Mason

    College Football logo
    College Football

    No Additional Punishment for Mullen, Mason

    Adam Sparks
    via USA TODAY

    LSU Fined $100K for Fans Storming the Field

    College Football logo
    College Football

    LSU Fined $100K for Fans Storming the Field

    Tyler Conway
    via Bleacher Report

    Harbaugh on Rivalry Trash Talk: 'We Could All Use a Break'

    College Football logo
    College Football

    Harbaugh on Rivalry Trash Talk: 'We Could All Use a Break'

    Nick Baumgardner
    via Detroit Free Press

    Week 8 AP Poll Released 📈

    College Football logo
    College Football

    Week 8 AP Poll Released 📈

    Timothy Rapp
    via Bleacher Report